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Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? I get that it doesn't look good

Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? I get that it doesn't look good from a reddit-war perspective, but it would have been absolutely suicidal to go for the 2 biggest cities before encircling them or roughing up the ukrainian army first. This isn't a video game where you go for the capital city capture, and Russia isn't fighting a Twitter war. You can focus on the cities all you want, but the reality is that Russia is more interested in encircling cities while they mop up the entire country side; just look at how they have operated around mariupol. Those are 2 massively populated cities, and the much much better American forces had a very hard time fighting much weaker opponents in fallujah 17 years ago. If you support the ukrainian side, you should stress how critical the situation is on the ground instead of downplaying how bad it is on the ground to make the russians look weak on the internet.

Mikeb85 5y ago
> Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? Did you not pay attention to the first weekend of fighting? Your analysis is correct but the Russians did try to take the 2 largest cities right away. There's massive wrecked convoys outside both Kyiv and Kharkiv. And it was extremely costly. And now the Russians look extremely weak. And now they're slowly making progress doing what you think they should to win. And they will win if the Russian oligarchs and military support them until the end. But that last point is a huge question mark.
- mardifoufs 5y ago
  They tried to take the gostomel airport, and pushed toward kiev but didn't make actual efforts into pushing beyond the suburbs. The gostomel operation was costly but AFAIK they still hold the airport. The convoys being wrecked are again either unconfirmed or didn't seem to massively alter their progression on that front. Obviously the russians are still taking a lot of losses, but imo it's not nearly close enough to stall them in any significant manner. (I'd have also expected the russians the be doing way way worse, since the ukrainian army has still been pretty throughouly trained by western advisors in the past 7 years. And after the mess that was the 2008 georgian war, I thought the russian army to be far less capable than the relatively professional army we have seen since they invaded.) I have not see any effort to actually push through kiev or Kharkov. If anything the push for Kharkov only happened mid last week, and most of the actually important events have been on the crimean/southern front .
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    >I'd have also expected the russians the be doing way way worse, since the ukrainian army has still been pretty throughouly trained by western advisors in the past 7 years. And after the mess that was the 2008 georgian war, I thought the russian army to be far less capable than the relatively professional army we have seen since they invaded. Are we watching the same war?
    - mardifoufs 5y ago
      Yes? Just look at the actual situation in the ground beyond the reddit wars (tm). https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/09... That's a huge amount of territory gained, especially when you keep in mind that the russians invaded with roughly the same amount of men that Ukraine is defending it's territory with. This would've been completely impossible back in 2008
MrMan 5y ago
I am sure Russia will win territory when they truly want to, I think the issue is how can they hold territory long term. perhaps they can slice the country up into manageable pieces such that insurgency doesn't render the conquest moot, but maybe not.
- mardifoufs 5y ago
  Agreed completely. I think that Russia will easily "win" militarily and it's foolish to think they are getting demolished in Ukraine but as you said I literally cannot see them holding the territory long term. Not only because there will be an insurgency but also because the invasion was imo such a foolish, pointless and borderline suicidal move for Russia. the best hope for them and ukraine will be to pull out after "winning" and hopefully negotiate a truce where they don't occupy Ukraine but get the sanctions on them pulled off in exchange.

Mikeb85 5y ago

> Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? Did you not pay attention to the first weekend of fighting? Your analysis is correct but the Russians did try to take the 2 largest cities right away. There's massive wrecked convoys outside both Kyiv and Kharkiv. And it was extremely costly. And now the Russians look extremely weak. And now they're slowly making progress doing what you think they should to win. And they will win if the Russian oligarchs and military support them until the end. But that last point is a huge question mark.

mardifoufs 5y ago
They tried to take the gostomel airport, and pushed toward kiev but didn't make actual efforts into pushing beyond the suburbs. The gostomel operation was costly but AFAIK they still hold the airport. The convoys being wrecked are again either unconfirmed or didn't seem to massively alter their progression on that front. Obviously the russians are still taking a lot of losses, but imo it's not nearly close enough to stall them in any significant manner. (I'd have also expected the russians the be doing way way worse, since the ukrainian army has still been pretty throughouly trained by western advisors in the past 7 years. And after the mess that was the 2008 georgian war, I thought the russian army to be far less capable than the relatively professional army we have seen since they invaded.) I have not see any effort to actually push through kiev or Kharkov. If anything the push for Kharkov only happened mid last week, and most of the actually important events have been on the crimean/southern front .
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  >I'd have also expected the russians the be doing way way worse, since the ukrainian army has still been pretty throughouly trained by western advisors in the past 7 years. And after the mess that was the 2008 georgian war, I thought the russian army to be far less capable than the relatively professional army we have seen since they invaded. Are we watching the same war?
  - mardifoufs 5y ago
    Yes? Just look at the actual situation in the ground beyond the reddit wars (tm). https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194 https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/09... That's a huge amount of territory gained, especially when you keep in mind that the russians invaded with roughly the same amount of men that Ukraine is defending it's territory with. This would've been completely impossible back in 2008

MrMan 5y ago

I am sure Russia will win territory when they truly want to, I think the issue is how can they hold territory long term. perhaps they can slice the country up into manageable pieces such that insurgency doesn't render the conquest moot, but maybe not.

mardifoufs 5y ago
Agreed completely. I think that Russia will easily "win" militarily and it's foolish to think they are getting demolished in Ukraine but as you said I literally cannot see them holding the territory long term. Not only because there will be an insurgency but also because the invasion was imo such a foolish, pointless and borderline suicidal move for Russia. the best hope for them and ukraine will be to pull out after "winning" and hopefully negotiate a truce where they don't occupy Ukraine but get the sanctions on them pulled off in exchange.