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I read that Russias manufacturing capabilities were already suffering before the war (possibly due to the covid supply chain issues, not sure), and that they ar

I read that Russias manufacturing capabilities were already suffering before the war (possibly due to the covid supply chain issues, not sure), and that they are likely a few months out from being able to get manufacturing capacity to a level that could replace current losses (and may not even be able to due to sanctions). Also, there are videos going around on twitter of Russian trains loaded with civilian cars and trucks supposedly headed to the front line. Assuming those videos are true, that means Russia is running out of military equipment. It is certainly possible that they are doing this for strategic reasons (maybe civilian vehicles use less gas, so easier to support logistically, etc..). But either way, this doesn't look good for them.

monocasa 5y ago
They don't need to immediately replace them. Russia has lost about a hundred tanks. They have nearly 13,000. They've lost about a dozen Su-27s, they have about 500. And I'm a little more afraid for Ukraine having seen those civilian cars. It feels like Russia is going to start playing very dirty during the upcoming siege of Kiev. It sort of evens the playing field if the defenders also have to watch their backs everytime an unmarked civilian car drives by. It's a dirty move right out of Russia's playbook.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  How many of those 13 000 tanks and 500 Su-27s are in deployable condition? The former Soviet Union was excellent in production of impressive statistics, but the reality on the ground didn't quite match. And the Soviet way of thinking is very much alive in Putin's power circles. It is cheaper to produce impressive numbers than to actually take good care of equipment, and some people will swallow those numbers without thinking twice. Westerners from well-run countries tend to trust government figures. This may work in Sweden or even in the USA, but in case of Russia, consider every published statistics as suspect.
  - monocasa 5y ago
    Those are the accepted figures, not simply taking Russian state provided figures at face value.
- qqqwerty 5y ago
  In the videos I saw, the cars were marked with the "Z". So at least for those particular vehicles, dirty tricks may be out of the question. One other possible advantage is that Ukraine soldiers might be reluctant to fire anti-tank missiles at civilian vehicles from long range (I assume that the markings would be hard to see from that distance). And the missiles might cost more than the vehicles themselves, so might be a waste regardless. Small arms fire would probably be sufficient to stop the vehicles, but that would have to happen at closer range. So maybe the idea is that they can get in closer to the engagement point before receiving fire. Also, they can probably move faster and use less fuel, which considering their logistic challenges might actually be the main motivation. So yeah, I could see this being strategic and not a desperation move. But either way, not the best look for their military. Hard to justify all of that spending on advanced hardware if at the end of the day they end up using civilian vehicles.
  - monocasa 5y ago
    You can repaint a car about as easily as you can put a Z on it. And the Z on the train means that a conscript doesn't take lot shots at it just because they missed that the first few cars had a Z on them.

monocasa 5y ago

They don't need to immediately replace them. Russia has lost about a hundred tanks. They have nearly 13,000. They've lost about a dozen Su-27s, they have about 500. And I'm a little more afraid for Ukraine having seen those civilian cars. It feels like Russia is going to start playing very dirty during the upcoming siege of Kiev. It sort of evens the playing field if the defenders also have to watch their backs everytime an unmarked civilian car drives by. It's a dirty move right out of Russia's playbook.

inglor_cz 5y ago
How many of those 13 000 tanks and 500 Su-27s are in deployable condition? The former Soviet Union was excellent in production of impressive statistics, but the reality on the ground didn't quite match. And the Soviet way of thinking is very much alive in Putin's power circles. It is cheaper to produce impressive numbers than to actually take good care of equipment, and some people will swallow those numbers without thinking twice. Westerners from well-run countries tend to trust government figures. This may work in Sweden or even in the USA, but in case of Russia, consider every published statistics as suspect.
- monocasa 5y ago
  Those are the accepted figures, not simply taking Russian state provided figures at face value.
qqqwerty 5y ago
In the videos I saw, the cars were marked with the "Z". So at least for those particular vehicles, dirty tricks may be out of the question. One other possible advantage is that Ukraine soldiers might be reluctant to fire anti-tank missiles at civilian vehicles from long range (I assume that the markings would be hard to see from that distance). And the missiles might cost more than the vehicles themselves, so might be a waste regardless. Small arms fire would probably be sufficient to stop the vehicles, but that would have to happen at closer range. So maybe the idea is that they can get in closer to the engagement point before receiving fire. Also, they can probably move faster and use less fuel, which considering their logistic challenges might actually be the main motivation. So yeah, I could see this being strategic and not a desperation move. But either way, not the best look for their military. Hard to justify all of that spending on advanced hardware if at the end of the day they end up using civilian vehicles.
- monocasa 5y ago
  You can repaint a car about as easily as you can put a Z on it. And the Z on the train means that a conscript doesn't take lot shots at it just because they missed that the first few cars had a Z on them.