5 ms·

Hybrid cars on the decline

16 points by kirpekar 15y ago

rbranson 15y ago
I like how the article basically says the Prius does very well because it's so conspicuous. Sounds about right.
xpose2000 15y ago
It's a down economy, and a hybird costs more than a 'regular' car. Hybrid's also have the potential to be confusing, like how many REAL miles can the Leaf do? I still don't trust batteries to keep a full charge after 6 months, just ask my cell phone. (I realize there are other hybrids, just an example). Plus those regular cars do a lot better on gas nowadays than they ever have.
- PakG1 15y ago
  The Leaf isn't a hybrid... I understand your point, but the Leaf isn't a hybrid.
  - xpose2000 15y ago
    An excellent point. haha. whoops. :)
  - icefox 15y ago
    "Hybrid's also have the potential to be confusing" (from the grandparent comment)
capkutay 15y ago
I'm not buying a car until it's fuel efficient AND drives itself. Looking at you, Google.
- ph0rque 15y ago
  My compromise: I'll by a used fuel-efficient car plus a driverless-conversion kit when they become commercially available, should be cheaper that way.
veyron 15y ago
Has anyone done a real break-even analysis on these cars (based on real life performance numbers), including maintenance costs and assuming various fuel prices? Even with subsidies, my hybrid-driving friends end up shelling out more money than I do. Every statistic I've seen is concocted (including the chevy volt's "infinite" mpg claims way back when).
- donw 15y ago
  Given that your username is 'veyron', I assume that your hybrid-driving friends have shockingly aggressive driving habits.
  - veyron 15y ago
    Haha they are stop and go drivers in NYC. I'd presume they would have an edge especially given the poor fuel economy of most cars when sitting in traffic
icefox 15y ago
I am one of those in the article. A few years ago I needed a new car, running the math it wasn't a fantastic deal and I could get a much nicer car (performance, looks, style, sound, features) for the same total price. I also said "maybe the next one with be a hybrid/electric".
- pkulak 15y ago
  My math said the opposite, actually. Factoring in the $50 (minimum) a month saved in gas, and my payment was about the same for a Prius or a Corolla/Civic. Plus, fluctuations in the price of gas effect me far less and in the end, my car is still worth more than a non-hybrid car, if I were to sell it. A car is an investment. A lousy one, but you still can't think of it only based total price vs features. You have to consider depreciation and operating costs more than upfront price.
  - rorrr 15y ago
    Did you factor in the battery replacement?
  - icefox 15y ago
    Back in 2008 when I bought my car the used Prius's were going for almost the price of a new one. This seemed like a short term fad of near zero depreciation and unwise to bet that it would stay that way. The Prius was really the only game in town at the time, gas prices were high, but it was clear that there would be plenty of new hybrids in the coming years. After hunting around for less than the price as a Prius (used or new) I got a barely used 6 speed manual G35 with all of the bells and whistles (15K miles, very clean engine, good find). The fact that it only gets ~22MPG in the peek of expensive gas might have been part of the reason I got it for so cheap. There is no debate that a G35 beats the pants of of a Civic or Corolla any day. Doing the math of $500 savings in gas a year I still have a few more years before it would have been cheaper to buy a Prius based upon the price difference. I have had no garage work on my G35 other than the standard oil change etc. To make things simple I will assume that the Prius would have been just as good. (How often do you have to change the battery?) I just looked up on kbb A brand new 2008 Prius would only be worth ~$400 more than my used G35 if I sold it today. So the math no matter how I look at it worked out for me and I got a nicer car to drive the past few years. But the real lesson I have seen over and over which is that any time someone runs the math they have different variables. If I were to buy a car today the used Prius's have actually dropped in price so that estimate is completely different that a few years ago, gas is now cheaper, I probably couldn't find that G35 again, and now there are other hybrids to compare against.
a2tech 15y ago
I live in Ann Arbor (pretty green area) and drive a hybrid Camry so my data may be way off-but around here I see plenty of hybrids. Not as many large cars as my Camry (which btw is a fantastic vehicle only made better by being a hybrid) but loads of Priuses (Prii?) and Honda Civic hybrids. A physcian I know even drives one of those monster Toyota Sequoia hybrids.
- abduhl 15y ago
  Could you explain why being a hybrid makes the Camry better? Also, why did you pick the hybrid instead of the standard version?
  - noonespecial 15y ago
    I made this choice just recently. It came down to the civic hybrid vs the standard civic. The hybrid was about $10,000 more. A quick calculation showed that I'd have to drive the hybrid 584,795 miles to break even on the extra cost at today's fuel cost. Put another way, I only plan to keep the car to around 100,000 miles. If the hybrid cost more than $1717 above the standard, I'm losing out. Put me in the hybrids are hype column.
    - jseliger 15y ago
      "Put me in the hybrids are hype column." In some ways, hybrids are large-scale social/economic insurance. If gas prices really spike, consumers will have a (relatively) rapid substitution for conventional cars. Plus, a lot of people claim to care about the environment. At least cars offer a modestly tangible way normal people in normal circumstances can show whether they actually do enough to spend modestly more to do some minor good for said environment. Plus (part two) a lot of jingoistic America-first types can decide whether they really want to help stick it to those people who jingoistic types don't like but who are selling lots of oil or whether those jingoistic types are all hat and no cattle. I find the number of people who favor or favored U.S. intervention in Iraq but who drive pickup trucks to be somewhat puzzling.
      - 15y ago
RobLach 15y ago
I never quite understood hybrid cars other than buying them as an indirect donation to pursue hybrid technology. Hybrids are worse for the environment than regular plain-ole' ICE cars and don't really give you much of an efficiency boost. Diesel engines are right up there with hybrids in the fuel efficiency game. Take for instance to VW Polo BlueMotion which is rated 70mpg+ Highway. The Passat BlueMotion is worse but still an impressive 57mpg+ Highway. Also consider that some biodiesel fuels are near 100% carbon neutral (such as hemp-based biodiesels), in that they sequester as much carbon dioxide from the air as they will eventually burn into once combusted.
- balinvadasz 15y ago
  I second the vote for diesel cars/minivans. Much simpler internals than hybrids with comparable (if not better fuel economy). I'd also venture to guess that the total environmental impact including the manufacturing processes is much less too. I wish VW/Audi/BMW/Mercedes sold a decent minivan with a diesel engine here in the US and I'd be a buyer. The VW Sharan gets 43MPG+ (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/sharan-20100701.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/sharan-20100701.html) It's no coincidence that nearly half of the European cars have diesel engines.
  - ph0rque 15y ago
    With a diesel-electric hybrid, the jump in fuel economy is just as dramatic: for example, the upcoming VW XL1 will get 235 mpg: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/reviews/hybrid-electric/volkswagen-xl1-test-drive-1-liter-235-mpg http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/reviews/hybrid-electric...
- 3am 15y ago
  Hey, I've heard that claim that hybrids are worse for the environment than pure internal combustion engines. Honestly I don't see how that's possible and I've never seen read anything that supports it. But I'm not an expert - do you have a source or can you explain it?
  - 15y ago
EiZei 15y ago
Hybrids look even less attractive in Europe. For example a VW Golf Bluemotion consumes actually less fuel on the average with highway consumption being significantly less and top of that diesel is still slightly cheaper than gasoline. Even with a vehicle tax rebate meaning 300-500 euros less per year the Prius doesn't seem such a great buy.
wavephorm 15y ago
I really thought there would be more all electric cars on the roads by now. The pace of car tech is excrutiating. 5 years ago there was all hype that hybrids were just temporary transition models. And here they're still trying to sell these over-engineered luxury green cars. Where are the affordable, small, city-oriented all electric commuting cars that would actually make a difference?
- jerf 15y ago
  "Where are the affordable, small, city-oriented all electric commuting cars that would actually make a difference?" Two things: Batteries, and regulations. Battery technology remains obstinate, and regulations put a lower bound on how light you can make the car before it starts failing a variety of tests in exciting ways, especially collision tests. I've seen a "car" that gets 100mpg, even at reasonable speeds (~55 mph), on straight-up gasoline. But you would not want to ride that thing into a wall at 55 mph. There was wood where you'd expect metal, for instance...
- pkulak 15y ago
  I see at least one Nissan Leaf in Portland every day when I'm walking around downtown. They're coming, I think it's just very geographical.
pasbesoin 15y ago
I've continued to speculate about the signaling aspect. That is, a hybrid (specifically, a Prius) being a way to purchase a small car without looking "unsuccessful". Unfortunately, I live and work in an area where such reactions can negatively influence your ability to "get things done". More recently, the new Mini's have started appearing, possibly as another small car that avoids undesired "signaling". They are not that cheap, and they are "fun"; small is ok, if it's "fun". Some years back, the BMW 3 series straddled this signaling line, to some extent. It was a small, less expensive Beamer (not quite there, yet?), but it was a Beamer and also made a certain sense for the sole commuter.

16 points by kirpekar 15y ago

I like how the article basically says the Prius does very well because it's so conspicuous. Sounds about right.

xpose2000 15y ago

It's a down economy, and a hybird costs more than a 'regular' car. Hybrid's also have the potential to be confusing, like how many REAL miles can the Leaf do? I still don't trust batteries to keep a full charge after 6 months, just ask my cell phone. (I realize there are other hybrids, just an example). Plus those regular cars do a lot better on gas nowadays than they ever have.

PakG1 15y ago
The Leaf isn't a hybrid... I understand your point, but the Leaf isn't a hybrid.
- xpose2000 15y ago
  An excellent point. haha. whoops. :)
- icefox 15y ago
  "Hybrid's also have the potential to be confusing" (from the grandparent comment)

capkutay 15y ago

I'm not buying a car until it's fuel efficient AND drives itself. Looking at you, Google.

ph0rque 15y ago
My compromise: I'll by a used fuel-efficient car plus a driverless-conversion kit when they become commercially available, should be cheaper that way.

veyron 15y ago

Has anyone done a real break-even analysis on these cars (based on real life performance numbers), including maintenance costs and assuming various fuel prices? Even with subsidies, my hybrid-driving friends end up shelling out more money than I do. Every statistic I've seen is concocted (including the chevy volt's "infinite" mpg claims way back when).

donw 15y ago
Given that your username is 'veyron', I assume that your hybrid-driving friends have shockingly aggressive driving habits.
- veyron 15y ago
  Haha they are stop and go drivers in NYC. I'd presume they would have an edge especially given the poor fuel economy of most cars when sitting in traffic

icefox 15y ago

I am one of those in the article. A few years ago I needed a new car, running the math it wasn't a fantastic deal and I could get a much nicer car (performance, looks, style, sound, features) for the same total price. I also said "maybe the next one with be a hybrid/electric".

pkulak 15y ago
My math said the opposite, actually. Factoring in the $50 (minimum) a month saved in gas, and my payment was about the same for a Prius or a Corolla/Civic. Plus, fluctuations in the price of gas effect me far less and in the end, my car is still worth more than a non-hybrid car, if I were to sell it. A car is an investment. A lousy one, but you still can't think of it only based total price vs features. You have to consider depreciation and operating costs more than upfront price.
- rorrr 15y ago
  Did you factor in the battery replacement?
- icefox 15y ago
  Back in 2008 when I bought my car the used Prius's were going for almost the price of a new one. This seemed like a short term fad of near zero depreciation and unwise to bet that it would stay that way. The Prius was really the only game in town at the time, gas prices were high, but it was clear that there would be plenty of new hybrids in the coming years. After hunting around for less than the price as a Prius (used or new) I got a barely used 6 speed manual G35 with all of the bells and whistles (15K miles, very clean engine, good find). The fact that it only gets ~22MPG in the peek of expensive gas might have been part of the reason I got it for so cheap. There is no debate that a G35 beats the pants of of a Civic or Corolla any day. Doing the math of $500 savings in gas a year I still have a few more years before it would have been cheaper to buy a Prius based upon the price difference. I have had no garage work on my G35 other than the standard oil change etc. To make things simple I will assume that the Prius would have been just as good. (How often do you have to change the battery?) I just looked up on kbb A brand new 2008 Prius would only be worth ~$400 more than my used G35 if I sold it today. So the math no matter how I look at it worked out for me and I got a nicer car to drive the past few years. But the real lesson I have seen over and over which is that any time someone runs the math they have different variables. If I were to buy a car today the used Prius's have actually dropped in price so that estimate is completely different that a few years ago, gas is now cheaper, I probably couldn't find that G35 again, and now there are other hybrids to compare against.

a2tech 15y ago

I live in Ann Arbor (pretty green area) and drive a hybrid Camry so my data may be way off-but around here I see plenty of hybrids. Not as many large cars as my Camry (which btw is a fantastic vehicle only made better by being a hybrid) but loads of Priuses (Prii?) and Honda Civic hybrids. A physcian I know even drives one of those monster Toyota Sequoia hybrids.

abduhl 15y ago
Could you explain why being a hybrid makes the Camry better? Also, why did you pick the hybrid instead of the standard version?
- noonespecial 15y ago
  I made this choice just recently. It came down to the civic hybrid vs the standard civic. The hybrid was about $10,000 more. A quick calculation showed that I'd have to drive the hybrid 584,795 miles to break even on the extra cost at today's fuel cost. Put another way, I only plan to keep the car to around 100,000 miles. If the hybrid cost more than $1717 above the standard, I'm losing out. Put me in the hybrids are hype column.
  - jseliger 15y ago
    "Put me in the hybrids are hype column." In some ways, hybrids are large-scale social/economic insurance. If gas prices really spike, consumers will have a (relatively) rapid substitution for conventional cars. Plus, a lot of people claim to care about the environment. At least cars offer a modestly tangible way normal people in normal circumstances can show whether they actually do enough to spend modestly more to do some minor good for said environment. Plus (part two) a lot of jingoistic America-first types can decide whether they really want to help stick it to those people who jingoistic types don't like but who are selling lots of oil or whether those jingoistic types are all hat and no cattle. I find the number of people who favor or favored U.S. intervention in Iraq but who drive pickup trucks to be somewhat puzzling.
    - 15y ago

RobLach 15y ago

I never quite understood hybrid cars other than buying them as an indirect donation to pursue hybrid technology. Hybrids are worse for the environment than regular plain-ole' ICE cars and don't really give you much of an efficiency boost. Diesel engines are right up there with hybrids in the fuel efficiency game. Take for instance to VW Polo BlueMotion which is rated 70mpg+ Highway. The Passat BlueMotion is worse but still an impressive 57mpg+ Highway. Also consider that some biodiesel fuels are near 100% carbon neutral (such as hemp-based biodiesels), in that they sequester as much carbon dioxide from the air as they will eventually burn into once combusted.

balinvadasz 15y ago
I second the vote for diesel cars/minivans. Much simpler internals than hybrids with comparable (if not better fuel economy). I'd also venture to guess that the total environmental impact including the manufacturing processes is much less too. I wish VW/Audi/BMW/Mercedes sold a decent minivan with a diesel engine here in the US and I'd be a buyer. The VW Sharan gets 43MPG+ (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/sharan-20100701.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/sharan-20100701.html) It's no coincidence that nearly half of the European cars have diesel engines.
- ph0rque 15y ago
  With a diesel-electric hybrid, the jump in fuel economy is just as dramatic: for example, the upcoming VW XL1 will get 235 mpg: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/reviews/hybrid-electric/volkswagen-xl1-test-drive-1-liter-235-mpg http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/reviews/hybrid-electric...
3am 15y ago
Hey, I've heard that claim that hybrids are worse for the environment than pure internal combustion engines. Honestly I don't see how that's possible and I've never seen read anything that supports it. But I'm not an expert - do you have a source or can you explain it?
- 15y ago

EiZei 15y ago

Hybrids look even less attractive in Europe. For example a VW Golf Bluemotion consumes actually less fuel on the average with highway consumption being significantly less and top of that diesel is still slightly cheaper than gasoline. Even with a vehicle tax rebate meaning 300-500 euros less per year the Prius doesn't seem such a great buy.

wavephorm 15y ago

I really thought there would be more all electric cars on the roads by now. The pace of car tech is excrutiating. 5 years ago there was all hype that hybrids were just temporary transition models. And here they're still trying to sell these over-engineered luxury green cars. Where are the affordable, small, city-oriented all electric commuting cars that would actually make a difference?

jerf 15y ago
"Where are the affordable, small, city-oriented all electric commuting cars that would actually make a difference?" Two things: Batteries, and regulations. Battery technology remains obstinate, and regulations put a lower bound on how light you can make the car before it starts failing a variety of tests in exciting ways, especially collision tests. I've seen a "car" that gets 100mpg, even at reasonable speeds (~55 mph), on straight-up gasoline. But you would not want to ride that thing into a wall at 55 mph. There was wood where you'd expect metal, for instance...
pkulak 15y ago
I see at least one Nissan Leaf in Portland every day when I'm walking around downtown. They're coming, I think it's just very geographical.

pasbesoin 15y ago

I've continued to speculate about the signaling aspect. That is, a hybrid (specifically, a Prius) being a way to purchase a small car without looking "unsuccessful". Unfortunately, I live and work in an area where such reactions can negatively influence your ability to "get things done". More recently, the new Mini's have started appearing, possibly as another small car that avoids undesired "signaling". They are not that cheap, and they are "fun"; small is ok, if it's "fun". Some years back, the BMW 3 series straddled this signaling line, to some extent. It was a small, less expensive Beamer (not quite there, yet?), but it was a Beamer and also made a certain sense for the sole commuter.