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You haven't been watching the war, have you? Russia can't even take Kyiv or Kharkiv even though they're pretty close to the Belarus and Russian borders...

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
So far. One can be surprised they haven't taken these cities earlier, but I wouldn't bet Ukraine won't accept Putin's requests at some point in exchange for the end of the war. (commitment not to enter NATO/Europe + demilitarization + recognition of Crimea being part of Russia + independence of Donetsk and Luhansk republics). Neither NATO nor Europe wants to intervene and China will continue to support Russia to compensate for the sanctions.
- sidibe 5y ago
  There is no way Ukraine accepts the same demands that Russia had at the start of the war. I think the most they'll give is recognize the territory Russia or separatists had at the start of the war, and that's only if Russia makes serious push on central Kyiv. No way they give up on NATO at this point knowing Russia could just do it again in a few years
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  I'm optimistic the Ukrainians will hold on longer than oligarch and military support for Putin...
- birdyrooster 5y ago
  If NATO wasn't confident that Ukraine would stop Russia, they would have already changed tactics.
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    Why change tactics when things are working out for NATO The longer and more devastating the war, the better. Ukraine doesn't have to win for a NATO victory, russia just has to be damaged militarily and fanatically.
    - birdyrooster 5y ago
      I would have agreed with you day one of the invasion but things have shifted dramatically. Now that so much of NATO has put its weight behind it, Ukraine must win. If Ukraine loses it shows how weak NATO is when it unites (which it has done as has been spoken about ad nausea in the media).
      - s1artibartfast 5y ago
        I think that is a valid point, but it also very clear to the public that NATO is not putting its full weight behind it, and that it is not willing to engage directly militarily. I think the public barometer of success will be based more on damage to Russia, than the outcome for Ukraine. If people see Russia suffer for the invasion and know that NATO held back, they will tolerate the outcome
        birdyrooster 5y ago
        US president just tweeted that Russia will never take Ukraine https://twitter.com/potus/status/1501359427454132227?s=21 https://twitter.com/potus/status/1501359427454132227?s=21
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > I wouldn't bet Ukraine won't accept Putin's requests at some point in exchange for the end of the war Except in the negotiations in Belarus whose content hasn't been disclosed, Putin has never released terms that Ukraine alone could meet; his ultimatum before the war had most of its terms directed at NATO, not Ukraine, though the gun was pointed at Ukraine. Presumably, terms for Ukraine alone would be much steeper to make up for what he won't be getting from NATO.
mardifoufs 5y ago
Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? I get that it doesn't look good from a reddit-war perspective, but it would have been absolutely suicidal to go for the 2 biggest cities before encircling them or roughing up the ukrainian army first. This isn't a video game where you go for the capital city capture, and Russia isn't fighting a Twitter war. You can focus on the cities all you want, but the reality is that Russia is more interested in encircling cities while they mop up the entire country side; just look at how they have operated around mariupol. Those are 2 massively populated cities, and the much much better American forces had a very hard time fighting much weaker opponents in fallujah 17 years ago. If you support the ukrainian side, you should stress how critical the situation is on the ground instead of downplaying how bad it is on the ground to make the russians look weak on the internet.
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  > Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? Did you not pay attention to the first weekend of fighting? Your analysis is correct but the Russians did try to take the 2 largest cities right away. There's massive wrecked convoys outside both Kyiv and Kharkiv. And it was extremely costly. And now the Russians look extremely weak. And now they're slowly making progress doing what you think they should to win. And they will win if the Russian oligarchs and military support them until the end. But that last point is a huge question mark.
  - mardifoufs 5y ago
    They tried to take the gostomel airport, and pushed toward kiev but didn't make actual efforts into pushing beyond the suburbs. The gostomel operation was costly but AFAIK they still hold the airport. The convoys being wrecked are again either unconfirmed or didn't seem to massively alter their progression on that front. Obviously the russians are still taking a lot of losses, but imo it's not nearly close enough to stall them in any significant manner. (I'd have also expected the russians the be doing way way worse, since the ukrainian army has still been pretty throughouly trained by western advisors in the past 7 years. And after the mess that was the 2008 georgian war, I thought the russian army to be far less capable than the relatively professional army we have seen since they invaded.) I have not see any effort to actually push through kiev or Kharkov. If anything the push for Kharkov only happened mid last week, and most of the actually important events have been on the crimean/southern front .

rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago

So far. One can be surprised they haven't taken these cities earlier, but I wouldn't bet Ukraine won't accept Putin's requests at some point in exchange for the end of the war. (commitment not to enter NATO/Europe + demilitarization + recognition of Crimea being part of Russia + independence of Donetsk and Luhansk republics). Neither NATO nor Europe wants to intervene and China will continue to support Russia to compensate for the sanctions.

sidibe 5y ago
There is no way Ukraine accepts the same demands that Russia had at the start of the war. I think the most they'll give is recognize the territory Russia or separatists had at the start of the war, and that's only if Russia makes serious push on central Kyiv. No way they give up on NATO at this point knowing Russia could just do it again in a few years
Mikeb85 5y ago
I'm optimistic the Ukrainians will hold on longer than oligarch and military support for Putin...
birdyrooster 5y ago
If NATO wasn't confident that Ukraine would stop Russia, they would have already changed tactics.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  Why change tactics when things are working out for NATO The longer and more devastating the war, the better. Ukraine doesn't have to win for a NATO victory, russia just has to be damaged militarily and fanatically.
  - birdyrooster 5y ago
    I would have agreed with you day one of the invasion but things have shifted dramatically. Now that so much of NATO has put its weight behind it, Ukraine must win. If Ukraine loses it shows how weak NATO is when it unites (which it has done as has been spoken about ad nausea in the media).
    - s1artibartfast 5y ago
      I think that is a valid point, but it also very clear to the public that NATO is not putting its full weight behind it, and that it is not willing to engage directly militarily. I think the public barometer of success will be based more on damage to Russia, than the outcome for Ukraine. If people see Russia suffer for the invasion and know that NATO held back, they will tolerate the outcome
      - birdyrooster 5y ago
        US president just tweeted that Russia will never take Ukraine https://twitter.com/potus/status/1501359427454132227?s=21 https://twitter.com/potus/status/1501359427454132227?s=21
dragonwriter 5y ago
> I wouldn't bet Ukraine won't accept Putin's requests at some point in exchange for the end of the war Except in the negotiations in Belarus whose content hasn't been disclosed, Putin has never released terms that Ukraine alone could meet; his ultimatum before the war had most of its terms directed at NATO, not Ukraine, though the gun was pointed at Ukraine. Presumably, terms for Ukraine alone would be much steeper to make up for what he won't be getting from NATO.

mardifoufs 5y ago

Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? I get that it doesn't look good from a reddit-war perspective, but it would have been absolutely suicidal to go for the 2 biggest cities before encircling them or roughing up the ukrainian army first. This isn't a video game where you go for the capital city capture, and Russia isn't fighting a Twitter war. You can focus on the cities all you want, but the reality is that Russia is more interested in encircling cities while they mop up the entire country side; just look at how they have operated around mariupol. Those are 2 massively populated cities, and the much much better American forces had a very hard time fighting much weaker opponents in fallujah 17 years ago. If you support the ukrainian side, you should stress how critical the situation is on the ground instead of downplaying how bad it is on the ground to make the russians look weak on the internet.

Mikeb85 5y ago
> Why would Russia want to start with extremely costly urban combat when the ukrainian forces are still a coherent fighting force? Did you not pay attention to the first weekend of fighting? Your analysis is correct but the Russians did try to take the 2 largest cities right away. There's massive wrecked convoys outside both Kyiv and Kharkiv. And it was extremely costly. And now the Russians look extremely weak. And now they're slowly making progress doing what you think they should to win. And they will win if the Russian oligarchs and military support them until the end. But that last point is a huge question mark.
- mardifoufs 5y ago
  They tried to take the gostomel airport, and pushed toward kiev but didn't make actual efforts into pushing beyond the suburbs. The gostomel operation was costly but AFAIK they still hold the airport. The convoys being wrecked are again either unconfirmed or didn't seem to massively alter their progression on that front. Obviously the russians are still taking a lot of losses, but imo it's not nearly close enough to stall them in any significant manner. (I'd have also expected the russians the be doing way way worse, since the ukrainian army has still been pretty throughouly trained by western advisors in the past 7 years. And after the mess that was the 2008 georgian war, I thought the russian army to be far less capable than the relatively professional army we have seen since they invaded.) I have not see any effort to actually push through kiev or Kharkov. If anything the push for Kharkov only happened mid last week, and most of the actually important events have been on the crimean/southern front .