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This doesn't make sense. Russia is more than just a petrostate to become vassalized. They have the largest nuclear arsenal and an advanced Military-Industrial

by pm90 5y ago

This doesn't make sense. Russia is more than just a petrostate to become vassalized. They have the largest nuclear arsenal and an advanced Military-Industrial Complex. Its true that they will be more dependent on Chinese financing but its unlikely that they will be beholden to China the same way Saudis are with the US.

lallysingh 5y ago
The arsenal is a cost center, not an asset. The military industry can't hold an economy up, much the opposite, actually. Unless they start selling weapons to China in larger numbers than any sane country would to their neighbors, I don't see the value.
- monocasa 5y ago
  It's an asset in that other countries either invading or dealing internally with civil wars get no fly zones instituted on them when they don't have nukes.
  - munk-a 5y ago
    That's true - but how does that put bread on the table? (With the possible exception of invading other countries to steal their bread - which we can see isn't working out great for them right now).
    - monocasa 5y ago
      They have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. They also have money, Europe is still paying for natural gas. They also have arms, they're the world's second largest arms dealer, only behind the US.
      - type0 5y ago
        > They have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. Bread, soon that will be the only thing they will be able to eat. And as we speak they are destroying bread factories of Ukranian people. There goes a joke, the Russian finds Aladdin's Magic Lamp. The Genie comes out and says: you have only one wish, I'll grant anything and the Ukrainian gets double of the same wish. The Russian thinks, then says: poke my eye out.
        monocasa 5y ago
        They have a self sufficient full food economy. They'll continue to have more than bread.
        lodi 5y ago
        I always heard this joke with the punchline "beat me half to death."
    - kavalg 5y ago
      Or creating a walled garden that is safe to play in and then take the usual 30% "app store" premium. I am not suggesting this in the context of Russia here, but in general. A state that has the military power to impose order in places where it is scarce may create value. An example could be a peaceful middle east that produces more and some of that goes to the one who maintains peace and makes everybody abide by the rules.
  - lallysingh 5y ago
    Yup, but that don't pay the bills.
    - monocasa 5y ago
      The EUR they're still getting for natural gas does though.
- pm90 5y ago
  They can sell to the world that the US won’t. Such as Iran, and other non western countries like India.
raverbashing 5y ago
> than just a petrostate to become vassalized No, it is pretty much just that > They have the largest nuclear arsenal Given the state of their military, I wouldn't doubt that the majority of those are a bigger risk to Russia than to anyone else > and an advanced Military-Industrial Complex Kinda. Still dependent on some western technologies. But yes they could help China in some aspects. (just don't get surprised when China doesn't respect IP exchange contracts)
- ok_dad 5y ago
  > > They have the largest nuclear arsenal > Given the state of their military, I wouldn't doubt that the majority of those are a bigger risk to Russia than to anyone else Yea, I kinda wonder about the state of those weapons, considering how much effort and money has to go into maintenance for nuclear weapons. Are most of them even functional at this point? Even a tiny bit of neglect can cause nuclear warheads and the components for ICBMs (and other advanced weapons) to degrade and become nearly unusable.
heartbreak 5y ago
> an advanced Military-Industrial Complex Citation needed.
- gwbas1c 5y ago
munk-a 5y ago
> an advanced Military-Industrial Complex They certainly did have one at one point - but don't let memories of the cold war taint your view. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been extremely inept and most of that lack of competence is the fact that the military-industrial funding levels established by the USSR were unsustainable by the USSR and Russia has been completely unable to match them while being robbed left and right by oligarchs.
- pm90 5y ago
  Sure it may not be the best but they’re still pretty good. I would also want to be careful about differentiating between Russian military performance and the effectiveness of its MIC. Russian Military failures seem to be largely tactical; their weapon systems seem to be working as expected.

by pm90 5y ago

lallysingh 5y ago

The arsenal is a cost center, not an asset. The military industry can't hold an economy up, much the opposite, actually. Unless they start selling weapons to China in larger numbers than any sane country would to their neighbors, I don't see the value.

monocasa 5y ago
It's an asset in that other countries either invading or dealing internally with civil wars get no fly zones instituted on them when they don't have nukes.
- munk-a 5y ago
  That's true - but how does that put bread on the table? (With the possible exception of invading other countries to steal their bread - which we can see isn't working out great for them right now).
  - monocasa 5y ago
    They have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. They also have money, Europe is still paying for natural gas. They also have arms, they're the world's second largest arms dealer, only behind the US.
    - type0 5y ago
      > They have plenty of bread, they're a net exporter of food. Bread, soon that will be the only thing they will be able to eat. And as we speak they are destroying bread factories of Ukranian people. There goes a joke, the Russian finds Aladdin's Magic Lamp. The Genie comes out and says: you have only one wish, I'll grant anything and the Ukrainian gets double of the same wish. The Russian thinks, then says: poke my eye out.
      - monocasa 5y ago
        They have a self sufficient full food economy. They'll continue to have more than bread.
      - lodi 5y ago
        I always heard this joke with the punchline "beat me half to death."
  - kavalg 5y ago
    Or creating a walled garden that is safe to play in and then take the usual 30% "app store" premium. I am not suggesting this in the context of Russia here, but in general. A state that has the military power to impose order in places where it is scarce may create value. An example could be a peaceful middle east that produces more and some of that goes to the one who maintains peace and makes everybody abide by the rules.
- lallysingh 5y ago
  Yup, but that don't pay the bills.
  - monocasa 5y ago
    The EUR they're still getting for natural gas does though.
pm90 5y ago
They can sell to the world that the US won’t. Such as Iran, and other non western countries like India.

raverbashing 5y ago

> than just a petrostate to become vassalized No, it is pretty much just that > They have the largest nuclear arsenal Given the state of their military, I wouldn't doubt that the majority of those are a bigger risk to Russia than to anyone else > and an advanced Military-Industrial Complex Kinda. Still dependent on some western technologies. But yes they could help China in some aspects. (just don't get surprised when China doesn't respect IP exchange contracts)

ok_dad 5y ago
> > They have the largest nuclear arsenal > Given the state of their military, I wouldn't doubt that the majority of those are a bigger risk to Russia than to anyone else Yea, I kinda wonder about the state of those weapons, considering how much effort and money has to go into maintenance for nuclear weapons. Are most of them even functional at this point? Even a tiny bit of neglect can cause nuclear warheads and the components for ICBMs (and other advanced weapons) to degrade and become nearly unusable.

heartbreak 5y ago

> an advanced Military-Industrial Complex Citation needed.

gwbas1c 5y ago

munk-a 5y ago

> an advanced Military-Industrial Complex They certainly did have one at one point - but don't let memories of the cold war taint your view. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been extremely inept and most of that lack of competence is the fact that the military-industrial funding levels established by the USSR were unsustainable by the USSR and Russia has been completely unable to match them while being robbed left and right by oligarchs.

pm90 5y ago
Sure it may not be the best but they’re still pretty good. I would also want to be careful about differentiating between Russian military performance and the effectiveness of its MIC. Russian Military failures seem to be largely tactical; their weapon systems seem to be working as expected.