13 ms·
You do know that Putin's bluster notwithstanding, MAD only applies to nuclear conflicts? EG Russia can march into Poland and that doesn't instantly 'trip' MAD.
by empressplay 5y ago
You do know that Putin's bluster notwithstanding, MAD only applies to nuclear conflicts? EG Russia can march into Poland and that doesn't instantly 'trip' MAD.
- dragonwriter 5y ago> You do know that Putin's bluster notwithstanding, MAD only applies to nuclear conflicts? This is inaccurate. MAD applies with progressively decreasing strength to: (1) Nuclear conflicts, (2) direct conflicts between nuclear powers, (3) direct conflicts between a nuclear power and the powers with which a nuclear power has a firm defense commitment, (4) direct conflicts between parties where a different nuclear power has firm defense commitments to each, ... (there are more categories where it has some attenuated impact, but it gets pretty weak beyond this point and the heirarchy becomes murkier) Tripwire forces are a means of moving category #3 into category #2 as a means of deterring them (also, #4 into #3, which is sometimes also of perceived importance.) The whole WWIII argument against NFZ in Ukraine is that it elevates a conflict that is not on this chart at all straight to a #2. If you think MAD applies only to nuclear conflicts, you don't understand the role of MAD.in deterrence very well.