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"who would risk nuclear escalation to retaliate for Latvia or Estonia? not the US." If a President as unpredictable as Trump happens to be in office, I wouldn'
by pmoriarty 5y ago
"who would risk nuclear escalation to retaliate for Latvia or Estonia? not the US."
If a President as unpredictable as Trump happens to be in office, I wouldn't be so sure.
That's not to mention the drastically increased risk of accidents once even a one-sided nuclear war has begun.
Think of how close the world came to nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis.[1] Once nukes start flying the risk grows much higher, even if there are still (presumably rational, cautious, and non-hawkish) adults in control.
[1] - https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/lone-russian-submarine-captain-stopped-cuban-missile-crisis-destroying-world-165747 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/lone-russian-submar...
- bushbaba 5y agoOne could argue a crazy irrational leader is a better defense against the start of conflict than a rational leader
- dragonwriter 5y ago> One could argue a crazy irrational leader is a better defense against the start of conflict than a rational leader One could argue anything, but I don't think there is a good argument for that position. In fact, I think it's painfully obvious that such a leader makes it less likely that efforts at avoiding conflict will be successful.
- 1986 5y agoThis was explicitly Nixon's approach, and it didn't really work at all https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
- bushbaba 5y agoGot a great laugh that the 3 people mentioned are Nixon, Trump, and Putin.