11 ms·

We keep hearing this assertion. Where is the evidence?

by an9n 5y ago

Lapsa 5y ago
for example - I am.
vmception 5y ago
Plenty of that, what news sources do you respect enough for me to link to? The “special military operation” isnt over and even Russia is attempting a limited ceasefire to help humanitarian efforts, for the third time, which means its not over due to Ukrainians resisting with some success
kangda123 5y ago
not really an answer but for one Russian military also seems to have expected and even planned for that (e.g. sending recon units first)
halfmatthalfcat 5y ago
Based on the Russian military tactics that were employed during the first couple days of the war. You don't run and gun into a country where you're expecting much resistance. There's also the logistical self-owns by the Russians where, by many accounts, they only had enough gas and food for at most a week but it's been reported only 3 days worth.
macintux 5y ago
Russia prepared (and accidentally published) a press release for 3 days after the invasion, congratulating themselves on their victory.
- pulse7 5y ago
  Any source?
  - macintux 5y ago
    Here’s a long thread: https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585?s=20&t=BJTwUIIhSAkaHUd4ir4C3w https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585?s=...
  - mmoskal 5y ago
    https://amp.economist.com/europe/2022/02/28/the-kremlins-propaganda-machine-is-running-at-full-throttle https://amp.economist.com/europe/2022/02/28/the-kremlins-pro...
  - nosianu 5y ago
    I saw it on a major German site, and you can find many links pointing to it. Just the first link from Google (I searched for "Russia prepared (and accidentally published) a press release"): https://news.yahoo.com/russian-state-news-accidentally-publishes-181749627.html https://news.yahoo.com/russian-state-news-accidentally-publi... Incidentally, the contents of that press release is what really shocked me much more than the invasion itself. It showed their twisted state of mind and that it wasn't about Ukraine, that they see themselves in some righteous crusade against the evil West. EDIT: The link I found is not the original, but others have posted other links. What I saw was a link from Der Spiegel (www.spiegel.de) when this was fresh news and it was just an absurd statement all around. The Twitter link that was posted shows it best. That article was when it all changed for me. It showed to me that this was not the end from Putin's PoV, but just the beginning of some kind of holy struggle. That article really brought it home to me that we needed to up our defense spending ASAP. Because the Russian leadership had gone insane. Some goals in Ukraine I could have logically understood as Russian interest - but the whole "we against the West" thing was just madness. I mean, the West was pretty happy financing and equipping Russia and China, helping both to modernize for decades. The West also kept pretty quiet any time Russia did some "special operation". Even the invasion of Georgia did not have any great consequences and was soon forgotten. It appeared to me that the West was quite okay with Russia gaining back some power - to take care of issues like militant Islam in the region. I did not see any sign that a weak Russia was in the Western interest. If there were individuals with a different opinion, who cares, the West has a huge amount of different voices unlike the authoritarian centralized China and Russia. If one looked at what happened it was a huge empowering of both China and Russia by the West, not a weakening. George W. Bush even recommended Ukraine to not go independent (Kiev Chicken speech), the USSR falling apart was all the USSR itself. Did the West like having to scramble to ensure the safety of nuclear tech in the years of Russian chaos? Surely not! How can China and Russia possibly claim/think that the West is out to suppress them? Modernization in both countries would have been impossible or taken a century without all the very active help from the West. So seeing yourself in some victim role is just ridiculous. I have some connections to Russia, having visited quite a few times and even done a Russian(!) language course (to fresh up, I already spoke a bit) in Odessa for a few months. I also know people who have businesses in Russia and help foreign businesses to invest there. So I saw and see first hand a bit of the great help Russia got in all areas of business and tech. How anyone (Russian leadership) can ignore all of that and think themselves into a corner where they think they have to take military action to thwart the evil West? It's just so stupid! Which means there is little chance for diplomacy - the whole thing was not created by reason, so it's hard to use reason to get out of it.
CityOfThrowaway 5y ago
The assertion that Russia expected Ukraine to fall in 1-3 days seems like propaganda. In order for Ukraine to stand a chance, it needs allies and reinforcement from the West. No rational actor throws its weight behind an entity doomed to failure. So, we need a narrative that Ukraine is not doomed to failure despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. The most optimistic thing we can say is that the people have fought valiantly and Russia did not sweep across the nation at historically unprecedented speed. By claiming that Putin's inner circle expected to win the war in 1-3 days, we can claim that Ukraine is actually winning. And if Ukraine is winning, then everybody who can sanction Russia in any way should do it right now to accelerate Ukraine's now inevitable victory. In some sense, it is a necessary narrative. If Ukraine doesn't get global support it will fall. Recasting them as the inevitable victor, therefore can be seen as an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it might work (hopefully!) Society doesn't demand triple-confirmation proof to retell stories that comport with our ideology. This case has some weak concrete evidence in its favor, but that's not the _point_. This is an active war, which means that most of the public information coming from authoritative sources is closely managed to suit the authority's goals. The supermajority of power in the West wants Putin's conquest to fail. So the narratives we hear will be angled in whatever way to maximize the possibility of that outcome.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  They absolutely thought they could surround and take down the government in Kyiv right away, probably in less than a week and they are finding out otherwise.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  It is absolutely propaganda. People forget it took the US 3 weeks just to take Baghdad. The idea that Russia thought it would take 3 days to take Kyiv is preposterous.
  - Zigurd 5y ago
    The three day war idea is the only rational basis for the invasion: 1. Decapitate the government and military 2. Broadcast a message of surrender 3. Install a puppet government and occupation control of cities That's the only way 200k soldiers can control a nation of 40 million who are united against invaders and united behind a democratically elected government. Even if half of the first objective can be attained in a few weeks, it will not lead to the following necessary objectives being met. Putin has no viable plan. Which, if you are making an analogy to Iraq, is somewhat similar: The US had no viable plan to stop patrols being ambushed using the same tactics on the same roads week after week.
stevehawk 5y ago
The evidence is in the fact that no one supplied them with any aid until they went "oh shit, Ukraine is still standing," 48 hours later.
nemo44x 5y ago
Their tactics. Unless their command is retarded which I don’t think they are. But their tactics imply a super fast surrender of Ukraine and the resignation/arrest/death of Ukrainian leadership.
paganel 5y ago
That was the general idea held by some people who were following the conflict online, I knew I was one of them, turns out I (and the people thinking like me) was/were wrong. I first thought this would play out like Czechoslovakia 1968, with the Soviet/Warsaw Pact paratroopers taking one of the big airports close to the capital, part of the local Army turning sides and the regime collapsing. Under that scenario everything would effectively have been over in 3 days, give or take. As further proof that that was the Russians' initial tactic is that they only started bombing civilian assets about 5 days in, when it had become clear to them that the initial plan had failed.

We keep hearing this assertion. Where is the evidence?

by an9n 5y ago

We keep hearing this assertion. Where is the evidence?

Lapsa 5y ago

for example - I am.

vmception 5y ago

Plenty of that, what news sources do you respect enough for me to link to? The “special military operation” isnt over and even Russia is attempting a limited ceasefire to help humanitarian efforts, for the third time, which means its not over due to Ukrainians resisting with some success

kangda123 5y ago

not really an answer but for one Russian military also seems to have expected and even planned for that (e.g. sending recon units first)

halfmatthalfcat 5y ago

Based on the Russian military tactics that were employed during the first couple days of the war. You don't run and gun into a country where you're expecting much resistance. There's also the logistical self-owns by the Russians where, by many accounts, they only had enough gas and food for at most a week but it's been reported only 3 days worth.

macintux 5y ago

Russia prepared (and accidentally published) a press release for 3 days after the invasion, congratulating themselves on their victory.

pulse7 5y ago
Any source?
- macintux 5y ago
  Here’s a long thread: https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585?s=20&t=BJTwUIIhSAkaHUd4ir4C3w https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585?s=...
- mmoskal 5y ago
  https://amp.economist.com/europe/2022/02/28/the-kremlins-propaganda-machine-is-running-at-full-throttle https://amp.economist.com/europe/2022/02/28/the-kremlins-pro...
- nosianu 5y ago
  I saw it on a major German site, and you can find many links pointing to it. Just the first link from Google (I searched for "Russia prepared (and accidentally published) a press release"): https://news.yahoo.com/russian-state-news-accidentally-publishes-181749627.html https://news.yahoo.com/russian-state-news-accidentally-publi... Incidentally, the contents of that press release is what really shocked me much more than the invasion itself. It showed their twisted state of mind and that it wasn't about Ukraine, that they see themselves in some righteous crusade against the evil West. EDIT: The link I found is not the original, but others have posted other links. What I saw was a link from Der Spiegel (www.spiegel.de) when this was fresh news and it was just an absurd statement all around. The Twitter link that was posted shows it best. That article was when it all changed for me. It showed to me that this was not the end from Putin's PoV, but just the beginning of some kind of holy struggle. That article really brought it home to me that we needed to up our defense spending ASAP. Because the Russian leadership had gone insane. Some goals in Ukraine I could have logically understood as Russian interest - but the whole "we against the West" thing was just madness. I mean, the West was pretty happy financing and equipping Russia and China, helping both to modernize for decades. The West also kept pretty quiet any time Russia did some "special operation". Even the invasion of Georgia did not have any great consequences and was soon forgotten. It appeared to me that the West was quite okay with Russia gaining back some power - to take care of issues like militant Islam in the region. I did not see any sign that a weak Russia was in the Western interest. If there were individuals with a different opinion, who cares, the West has a huge amount of different voices unlike the authoritarian centralized China and Russia. If one looked at what happened it was a huge empowering of both China and Russia by the West, not a weakening. George W. Bush even recommended Ukraine to not go independent (Kiev Chicken speech), the USSR falling apart was all the USSR itself. Did the West like having to scramble to ensure the safety of nuclear tech in the years of Russian chaos? Surely not! How can China and Russia possibly claim/think that the West is out to suppress them? Modernization in both countries would have been impossible or taken a century without all the very active help from the West. So seeing yourself in some victim role is just ridiculous. I have some connections to Russia, having visited quite a few times and even done a Russian(!) language course (to fresh up, I already spoke a bit) in Odessa for a few months. I also know people who have businesses in Russia and help foreign businesses to invest there. So I saw and see first hand a bit of the great help Russia got in all areas of business and tech. How anyone (Russian leadership) can ignore all of that and think themselves into a corner where they think they have to take military action to thwart the evil West? It's just so stupid! Which means there is little chance for diplomacy - the whole thing was not created by reason, so it's hard to use reason to get out of it.

CityOfThrowaway 5y ago

The assertion that Russia expected Ukraine to fall in 1-3 days seems like propaganda. In order for Ukraine to stand a chance, it needs allies and reinforcement from the West. No rational actor throws its weight behind an entity doomed to failure. So, we need a narrative that Ukraine is not doomed to failure despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. The most optimistic thing we can say is that the people have fought valiantly and Russia did not sweep across the nation at historically unprecedented speed. By claiming that Putin's inner circle expected to win the war in 1-3 days, we can claim that Ukraine is actually winning. And if Ukraine is winning, then everybody who can sanction Russia in any way should do it right now to accelerate Ukraine's now inevitable victory. In some sense, it is a necessary narrative. If Ukraine doesn't get global support it will fall. Recasting them as the inevitable victor, therefore can be seen as an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it might work (hopefully!) Society doesn't demand triple-confirmation proof to retell stories that comport with our ideology. This case has some weak concrete evidence in its favor, but that's not the _point_. This is an active war, which means that most of the public information coming from authoritative sources is closely managed to suit the authority's goals. The supermajority of power in the West wants Putin's conquest to fail. So the narratives we hear will be angled in whatever way to maximize the possibility of that outcome.

stjohnswarts 5y ago
They absolutely thought they could surround and take down the government in Kyiv right away, probably in less than a week and they are finding out otherwise.
whimsicalism 5y ago
It is absolutely propaganda. People forget it took the US 3 weeks just to take Baghdad. The idea that Russia thought it would take 3 days to take Kyiv is preposterous.
- Zigurd 5y ago
  The three day war idea is the only rational basis for the invasion: 1. Decapitate the government and military 2. Broadcast a message of surrender 3. Install a puppet government and occupation control of cities That's the only way 200k soldiers can control a nation of 40 million who are united against invaders and united behind a democratically elected government. Even if half of the first objective can be attained in a few weeks, it will not lead to the following necessary objectives being met. Putin has no viable plan. Which, if you are making an analogy to Iraq, is somewhat similar: The US had no viable plan to stop patrols being ambushed using the same tactics on the same roads week after week.

stevehawk 5y ago

The evidence is in the fact that no one supplied them with any aid until they went "oh shit, Ukraine is still standing," 48 hours later.

nemo44x 5y ago

Their tactics. Unless their command is retarded which I don’t think they are. But their tactics imply a super fast surrender of Ukraine and the resignation/arrest/death of Ukrainian leadership.

paganel 5y ago

That was the general idea held by some people who were following the conflict online, I knew I was one of them, turns out I (and the people thinking like me) was/were wrong. I first thought this would play out like Czechoslovakia 1968, with the Soviet/Warsaw Pact paratroopers taking one of the big airports close to the capital, part of the local Army turning sides and the regime collapsing. Under that scenario everything would effectively have been over in 3 days, give or take. As further proof that that was the Russians' initial tactic is that they only started bombing civilian assets about 5 days in, when it had become clear to them that the initial plan had failed.