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Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. The

by axg11 5y ago

Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of propaganda flying out on both sides. I think the West/NATO's next steps should carefully consider the true level of support for these actions within Russia. If there is already a modest level of support (e.g. > 25%) then actions such as sanctions and supply of lethal aid could lead to growing support for the conflict within Russia and further escalation.

mminer237 5y ago
When it's a crime to call for peace or even call the war a war, and the police can search your phone on demand, it's hard to get an accurate representation of people's views, because people aren't going to be willing to risk prison to answer your poll.
justsomehnguy 5y ago
> does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. ...when it bears up to 15 years in jail for treason? Given how the Russian government operates - just look for the amount of arrests [0] [0] https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyazi-s-akciyami-protiv-voyny-s-ukrainoy-6-marta-2022-goda https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyaz...
seina 5y ago
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstvennym-sotsoprosam-bolshinstvo-rossiyan-podderzhivayut-voynu-v-ukraine-no-mozhno-li-im-verit https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstven... tldr: huge support among older population This is according to two pro-government pollsters, but they also link to one independent poll that seem to confirm the findings so far. Meduza is probably largest remaining opposition russian media.
- e1g 5y ago
  Meduza is generally a credible source, and this article has an important nuance - there is huge support among older population _who watched government TV daily_. That is, interested in & highly aligned with the Kremlin's propaganda. The same article say it's a ~50/50 split among people who are young, educated, or live in large cities.
- rasz 5y ago
  Having interacted with older Russian people on few occasions they view themselves heroes of WW2. They genuinely dont know what happened between 1939 and 1941 and dont understand west looking at Russia funny, why USSR fell, or why someone would refuse Putins "help".
jakobdabo 5y ago
Here is the dynamics between February 24 and March 3 - https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/status/1500430882615836674 https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/status/1500430882615836674 I tried to translate using OCR, and the first chart's data points are answers to the question to what is the role of Russia in the conflict: "Aggressor", "Freedom", "Peacekeeping", "Don't know". Note, that it's based on an online poll (so not including TV-watchers-only people), but AFAIK they made sure that the people who are being polled are in different age and demographic groups.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

by axg11 5y ago

mminer237 5y ago

When it's a crime to call for peace or even call the war a war, and the police can search your phone on demand, it's hard to get an accurate representation of people's views, because people aren't going to be willing to risk prison to answer your poll.

justsomehnguy 5y ago

> does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. ...when it bears up to 15 years in jail for treason? Given how the Russian government operates - just look for the amount of arrests [0] [0] https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyazi-s-akciyami-protiv-voyny-s-ukrainoy-6-marta-2022-goda https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyaz...

seina 5y ago

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstvennym-sotsoprosam-bolshinstvo-rossiyan-podderzhivayut-voynu-v-ukraine-no-mozhno-li-im-verit https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstven... tldr: huge support among older population This is according to two pro-government pollsters, but they also link to one independent poll that seem to confirm the findings so far. Meduza is probably largest remaining opposition russian media.

e1g 5y ago
Meduza is generally a credible source, and this article has an important nuance - there is huge support among older population _who watched government TV daily_. That is, interested in & highly aligned with the Kremlin's propaganda. The same article say it's a ~50/50 split among people who are young, educated, or live in large cities.
rasz 5y ago
Having interacted with older Russian people on few occasions they view themselves heroes of WW2. They genuinely dont know what happened between 1939 and 1941 and dont understand west looking at Russia funny, why USSR fell, or why someone would refuse Putins "help".

jakobdabo 5y ago

Here is the dynamics between February 24 and March 3 - https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/status/1500430882615836674 https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/status/1500430882615836674 I tried to translate using OCR, and the first chart's data points are answers to the question to what is the role of Russia in the conflict: "Aggressor", "Freedom", "Peacekeeping", "Don't know". Note, that it's based on an online poll (so not including TV-watchers-only people), but AFAIK they made sure that the people who are being polled are in different age and demographic groups.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]