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Yes but you have to understand that this part of Putin's calculus. It would give him time to re-assess the military options, clean up a military mess that resul

Yes but you have to understand that this part of Putin's calculus. It would give him time to re-assess the military options, clean up a military mess that resulted from unrealistic expectations, prepare the next aggression more carefully, kill key figures of the Ukrainian government (he prefers poison), divide the West, and give him a better international position when he attacks next ("they broke our agreement"). Putin would likely calculate that by constantly threatening the West with nuclear war he could prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and later replace the Ukrainian government by a puppet regime as originally planned. It would be an extremely bad deal for Ukraine.

CapricornNoble 5y ago
>>>It would be an extremely bad deal for Ukraine. Putin might very well level Ukraine before he let's it just slide into EU/NATO without a fight. He could then fall back to Crimea/LNR/DNR, state that they are Russian territory, and that any violations of Russian territory may result in a nuclear response (in accordance with Russia's existing policy regarding "First Use"). That might be enough for him to save face at home with his "Special Military Operation achieving sufficient objectives". Will NATO do a mini-Marshall Plan to get Ukraine back on its feet, or will the Ukrainians end up forgotten, like the ~20 million food-insecure Afghanis who are invisible less than 6 months after we retreated?
- jonathanstrange 5y ago
  I really don't think Putin can level Ukraine, his military so far has barely been able to advance on flat roads. They can occupy more cities, though, in a bloody war of attrition in which the odds are stacked in favor of the defenders. Unfortunately, this war does not seem to end anytime soon. As for a Marshall plan for Ukraine. If they are able to force Russia to retreat, they'd be in NATO and EU in no time given the current circumstances and there surely would be something like a Marshall plan to build up the country. Personally, I don't think there will be such a win, though. This war is a classical lose-lose scenario and sadly the end result will likely be some kind of eternal cease fire agreement under a never-ending occupation, similar to what was in place since 2014. I think we agree on that. My hope is that there will be change in Russia, though, maybe in a way that allows Putin to exit in a (from his perspective) reasonable way. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think Putin has planned to and has to stay in complete power of everything until his death.

CapricornNoble 5y ago

>>>It would be an extremely bad deal for Ukraine. Putin might very well level Ukraine before he let's it just slide into EU/NATO without a fight. He could then fall back to Crimea/LNR/DNR, state that they are Russian territory, and that any violations of Russian territory may result in a nuclear response (in accordance with Russia's existing policy regarding "First Use"). That might be enough for him to save face at home with his "Special Military Operation achieving sufficient objectives". Will NATO do a mini-Marshall Plan to get Ukraine back on its feet, or will the Ukrainians end up forgotten, like the ~20 million food-insecure Afghanis who are invisible less than 6 months after we retreated?

jonathanstrange 5y ago
I really don't think Putin can level Ukraine, his military so far has barely been able to advance on flat roads. They can occupy more cities, though, in a bloody war of attrition in which the odds are stacked in favor of the defenders. Unfortunately, this war does not seem to end anytime soon. As for a Marshall plan for Ukraine. If they are able to force Russia to retreat, they'd be in NATO and EU in no time given the current circumstances and there surely would be something like a Marshall plan to build up the country. Personally, I don't think there will be such a win, though. This war is a classical lose-lose scenario and sadly the end result will likely be some kind of eternal cease fire agreement under a never-ending occupation, similar to what was in place since 2014. I think we agree on that. My hope is that there will be change in Russia, though, maybe in a way that allows Putin to exit in a (from his perspective) reasonable way. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think Putin has planned to and has to stay in complete power of everything until his death.