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Their entire supply chain from cars to planes to military goods to computers and software relies on the west. Their best people have already left and more will
by grey-area 5y ago
Their entire supply chain from cars to planes to military goods to computers and software relies on the west. Their best people have already left and more will leave soon.
In some sense they could survive on a war footing (i.e. people won’t starve) but their economy will take decades to recover even if sanctions are lifted soon. They lost 25% of their wealth in a few days (rubble) and don’t even have a functioning stock market.
This is already a catastrophe for Russia.
- sudosysgen 5y agoThe Russian government sadly already thought of that. They have already set up parallel supply chains for their planes, military goods, cars, softwares and computers. For planes, it's through domestic industry being kept isolated for military reasons. For military goods, it is all made in CIS countries and use no foreign (except maybe Chinese? Not sure) critical components. For cars, they have begun to import Chinese cars already. For software, piracy solves the issue. For computers, they have domestic low performance processors with already functional x86 emulation, as well as the option to buy Chinese chips.
- fer 5y agoMost of their civilian planes are Boeing and Airbus, then much further down in numbers Tupolev et al. While there had been efforts to revive civilian aircraft industry, the only recent model is the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which is relatively small and limited to regional flights.
- bobthepanda 5y agoRight. The main trouble with planes is how advanced avionics and engines have become. That, and whoever you’re flying to needs to certify the aircraft; China started the 737Max grounding, they’re no aviation regulatory paper tiger. All Russia has the domestic capability for is going back to long range four engine planes, which will increase maintenance and fuel consumption.
- sudosysgen 5y agoIt is not absolutely necessary to use Russian-owned planes for civilian aviation. Foreign airlines (Chinese, Indian, etc...) can take over the routes. It is only necessarily for regional flights.
- fer 5y agoMaintenance needs to be done on Russian airports in any case. That's significantly more expensive now in the best case, impossible in the worst.
- sudosysgen 5y agoSo far there have been no such sanctions, and there doesn't seem to be any plans for it. Foreign airlines are allowed to order parts into Russia for their own use just fine. In the worst case, the airlines will have to transport the parts to Russia themselves, which is not much more costly than getting Boeing to do it.
- grey-area 5y agoLet’s see how well they do; judging by their war planning, it won’t go as well as you expect.
- sudosysgen 5y agoOh don't think I am under the illusion it will go perfectly, I think it will have grave disasters. I just don't think it will have a significant impact on their warmaking ability, and that eventually they will mostly recover.
- pessimizer 5y ago> Their entire supply chain from cars to planes to military goods to computers and software relies on the west. Explainer-Importance of Russian Titanium to Global Industry https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-03-01/importance-of-russian-titanium-to-global-industry https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-03-01/...
- grey-area 5y agoSure it is absolutely going to be difficult for the west as well, but not catastrophic.