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I am curious about these statements. Europe, China and India are still buying oil and gas from Russia. They can still import from China/India. Why would the eco

I am curious about these statements. Europe, China and India are still buying oil and gas from Russia. They can still import from China/India. Why would the economy collapse?

varjag 5y ago
Europe diversifies from Russia as we speak, and China was already buying Russian hydrocarbons at or below cost.
perryizgr8 5y ago
Americans think denying people Iphones is a great punishment. In reality Russians will save a lot of money buying Oppo and Vivo phones from China that function just as well for 99% of users. They will use Linux, build their own alternatives for Google/Youtube or use Chinese sites. It will all be fine. In fact their data will be safe from Google and Meta.
SyzygistSix 5y ago
So many reasons. Fossil fuels are half of their economy at best. As a single market, China doesn't pay them much per barrel. Their oil production per barrel is expensive. Their drilling industry uses Western tech and resources, including Western technicians. I have a difficult time imagining any country doing well with their imports and exports reduced by 50-60%. oec.com has lots of info per country on what makes up their economy.
- ilyich 5y ago
  Europe and the USA simply have no alternative to Russian oil and natural gas. They may have in 20 or 30 years from now if they start investing in it several billion dollars per year right now. That's why gas prices in Europe and oil prices in the USA are skyrocketing these days.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > Europe and the USA simply have no alternative to Russian oil and natural gas. Russian oil is already going unsold, without formal sanctions.
acdha 5y ago
Europe is planning to sharply reduce their oil & gas imports so this can't continue to be used as a lever against them. Every EV, every electrified house, etc. lowers demand for Russian petroleum. Similarly, they have a lot of other exports and as each of those is replaced by purchases elsewhere they'll have to work harder to re-enter the markets after hostilities end. There are also some big challenges for certain sectors: for example, after watching the current massive under-performance, how many places are going to be jumping at a chance to buy their weapons systems? Also, remember that while China and India can choose to continue receiving exports they didn't pay as much as Europe did _before_ the war. If Russia has reduced itself to one or two potential buyers, those buyers have the power to dictate pricing well under market and the financing options are going to be very much not in Russia's long-term interests. China has a strategy they've used on smaller countries where they offer aggressive loans for projects and then take control of infrastructure / resources if the borrower defaults, and I'd be exceedingly unsurprised if some Chinese companies end up doing something similar here.
grey-area 5y ago
Their entire supply chain from cars to planes to military goods to computers and software relies on the west. Their best people have already left and more will leave soon. In some sense they could survive on a war footing (i.e. people won’t starve) but their economy will take decades to recover even if sanctions are lifted soon. They lost 25% of their wealth in a few days (rubble) and don’t even have a functioning stock market. This is already a catastrophe for Russia.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  The Russian government sadly already thought of that. They have already set up parallel supply chains for their planes, military goods, cars, softwares and computers. For planes, it's through domestic industry being kept isolated for military reasons. For military goods, it is all made in CIS countries and use no foreign (except maybe Chinese? Not sure) critical components. For cars, they have begun to import Chinese cars already. For software, piracy solves the issue. For computers, they have domestic low performance processors with already functional x86 emulation, as well as the option to buy Chinese chips.
  - fer 5y ago
    Most of their civilian planes are Boeing and Airbus, then much further down in numbers Tupolev et al. While there had been efforts to revive civilian aircraft industry, the only recent model is the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which is relatively small and limited to regional flights.
    - bobthepanda 5y ago
      Right. The main trouble with planes is how advanced avionics and engines have become. That, and whoever you’re flying to needs to certify the aircraft; China started the 737Max grounding, they’re no aviation regulatory paper tiger. All Russia has the domestic capability for is going back to long range four engine planes, which will increase maintenance and fuel consumption.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
stickfigure 5y ago
Aside from the economic disruption everyone else has mentioned, there's also the incredibly expensive war they are currently engaged in. Income is plummeting while expenses are going through the roof.
vkou 5y ago
Because you can't just shift all of your supply chains to cut off all dependence on imports from Europe overnight. In the long term, Russia can survive by selling gas to Europe, and buying goods from China. In the short term, there's an absolute madhouse in the domestic markets. Unlike in the Soviet days, when most of its domestic products were locally produced, Russia has de-industrialized, and all of its supply chains have become incredibly dependant on the West. It can't turn back the clock 40 years overnight.

I am curious about these statements. Europe, China and India are still buying oil and gas from Russia. They can still import from China/India. Why would the economy collapse?

varjag 5y ago

Europe diversifies from Russia as we speak, and China was already buying Russian hydrocarbons at or below cost.

perryizgr8 5y ago

Americans think denying people Iphones is a great punishment. In reality Russians will save a lot of money buying Oppo and Vivo phones from China that function just as well for 99% of users. They will use Linux, build their own alternatives for Google/Youtube or use Chinese sites. It will all be fine. In fact their data will be safe from Google and Meta.

SyzygistSix 5y ago

So many reasons. Fossil fuels are half of their economy at best. As a single market, China doesn't pay them much per barrel. Their oil production per barrel is expensive. Their drilling industry uses Western tech and resources, including Western technicians. I have a difficult time imagining any country doing well with their imports and exports reduced by 50-60%. oec.com has lots of info per country on what makes up their economy.

ilyich 5y ago
Europe and the USA simply have no alternative to Russian oil and natural gas. They may have in 20 or 30 years from now if they start investing in it several billion dollars per year right now. That's why gas prices in Europe and oil prices in the USA are skyrocketing these days.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Europe and the USA simply have no alternative to Russian oil and natural gas. Russian oil is already going unsold, without formal sanctions.

acdha 5y ago

Europe is planning to sharply reduce their oil & gas imports so this can't continue to be used as a lever against them. Every EV, every electrified house, etc. lowers demand for Russian petroleum. Similarly, they have a lot of other exports and as each of those is replaced by purchases elsewhere they'll have to work harder to re-enter the markets after hostilities end. There are also some big challenges for certain sectors: for example, after watching the current massive under-performance, how many places are going to be jumping at a chance to buy their weapons systems? Also, remember that while China and India can choose to continue receiving exports they didn't pay as much as Europe did _before_ the war. If Russia has reduced itself to one or two potential buyers, those buyers have the power to dictate pricing well under market and the financing options are going to be very much not in Russia's long-term interests. China has a strategy they've used on smaller countries where they offer aggressive loans for projects and then take control of infrastructure / resources if the borrower defaults, and I'd be exceedingly unsurprised if some Chinese companies end up doing something similar here.

grey-area 5y ago

Their entire supply chain from cars to planes to military goods to computers and software relies on the west. Their best people have already left and more will leave soon. In some sense they could survive on a war footing (i.e. people won’t starve) but their economy will take decades to recover even if sanctions are lifted soon. They lost 25% of their wealth in a few days (rubble) and don’t even have a functioning stock market. This is already a catastrophe for Russia.

sudosysgen 5y ago
The Russian government sadly already thought of that. They have already set up parallel supply chains for their planes, military goods, cars, softwares and computers. For planes, it's through domestic industry being kept isolated for military reasons. For military goods, it is all made in CIS countries and use no foreign (except maybe Chinese? Not sure) critical components. For cars, they have begun to import Chinese cars already. For software, piracy solves the issue. For computers, they have domestic low performance processors with already functional x86 emulation, as well as the option to buy Chinese chips.
- fer 5y ago
  Most of their civilian planes are Boeing and Airbus, then much further down in numbers Tupolev et al. While there had been efforts to revive civilian aircraft industry, the only recent model is the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which is relatively small and limited to regional flights.
  - bobthepanda 5y ago
    Right. The main trouble with planes is how advanced avionics and engines have become. That, and whoever you’re flying to needs to certify the aircraft; China started the 737Max grounding, they’re no aviation regulatory paper tiger. All Russia has the domestic capability for is going back to long range four engine planes, which will increase maintenance and fuel consumption.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago

stickfigure 5y ago

Aside from the economic disruption everyone else has mentioned, there's also the incredibly expensive war they are currently engaged in. Income is plummeting while expenses are going through the roof.

vkou 5y ago

Because you can't just shift all of your supply chains to cut off all dependence on imports from Europe overnight. In the long term, Russia can survive by selling gas to Europe, and buying goods from China. In the short term, there's an absolute madhouse in the domestic markets. Unlike in the Soviet days, when most of its domestic products were locally produced, Russia has de-industrialized, and all of its supply chains have become incredibly dependant on the West. It can't turn back the clock 40 years overnight.