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The Case Against Universal Basic Income (UBI)

5 points by t0bia_s 5y ago

adrianomartins 5y ago
I do agree with most of the concerns she voices, but I also don't see a strong relationship between them and UBI. I'll elaborate: I've stumbled upon UBI a few times, but this is really the first time I see it framed as the solution for the problems that will arise from the next industrial generation. Saying that automation will lead to huge amounts of unemployed people within 8 years seems to me a bit of a dramatisation. We've witnessed technology replacing completely job positions, but that happens very progressively. Yes, jobs are lost, but jobs are also created, and most importantly, people have time to adapt. It does not happen overnight, and most certainly it does not happen to all of the people in the world at the same time.
- t0bia_s 5y ago
  I doesn't have to be related only with jobs. UBI could be "ideal solution" for another pandemic, war, economic collapse, you name it... I honestly think there will be soon radical change in life style. Communities, offline living, independent food obtaining, etc. Of course this is not what big tech, governments and billionaire's want. So if we will not learn from history, global conflicts between elites and ordinary citizens is inevitable.
aurizon 5y ago
Ah, this has the risk of the rise of a race of 'Pigeons' - we have seen how cities have 'do not feed...' signs. This is usually the end case of people taking pity on the hard life they have = free food = pigeon numbers tend towards infinity... That said, what will we do if the rise of newly created jobs does not match the number of people rendered unemployed by newtech? So far the newjobs have stayed ahead and even exceeded losses = worker shortages = drives even more automation. I suggest instead of free money to people, UBI, we have free education for people of an automated nature. By automated, I mean an 'AI' mediated system of education that is based on a highly AI operated method of teaching/training of almost all disciplines. This is quite doable - the MIT open course work (https://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm https://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm) is a leading example. This has grown into a huge and valuable resource. It needs further development to the point where segments are discoursed upon to a student. The student is then tested on a segment and failpoints identified - the courseware should then go over these failpoints with a more detailed discourse, perhaps varying the POV, leading to a retest and even more detailed discourses. This will accomodate students of varying capability. At some point the limits of that students intellect has been reached in that segment. On to the next stage - perhaps a human teacher can take the students to the next level, or he has plateaued on that module. On to the next in a continuing process with a new module that the student is capable of achieving. The system will accumulate a profile and will seek to expand the capability of the student across a wide range of modules in all human disciplines to, hopefully, keep making progress. The student will be paid for his work and rewarded for his continued progress - even if minimal, as this is to replace a dole with rewarded work. As the student progresses he will at some point (I hope) reach a point where his capabilities meet/exceed the needs of a genuine job - which he can take and which will bring far higher wages. Some will, some will not, but they will all be on a path of continued education, Math, Physics, Roman History, Music, Art etc. Since 24/7 study can be a little daunting, there will be game modules, recreational reading - Sci-Fi, Super Hero action novels etc. to break the pace = recess for the mind. I feel this can work, as the people climb in skill, they can be the humans that help the others (through teacher training modules - what else?). I feel this may be better than increasing the number of Human Pigeons towards infinity.

5 points by t0bia_s 5y ago

I do agree with most of the concerns she voices, but I also don't see a strong relationship between them and UBI. I'll elaborate: I've stumbled upon UBI a few times, but this is really the first time I see it framed as the solution for the problems that will arise from the next industrial generation. Saying that automation will lead to huge amounts of unemployed people within 8 years seems to me a bit of a dramatisation. We've witnessed technology replacing completely job positions, but that happens very progressively. Yes, jobs are lost, but jobs are also created, and most importantly, people have time to adapt. It does not happen overnight, and most certainly it does not happen to all of the people in the world at the same time.

t0bia_s 5y ago
I doesn't have to be related only with jobs. UBI could be "ideal solution" for another pandemic, war, economic collapse, you name it... I honestly think there will be soon radical change in life style. Communities, offline living, independent food obtaining, etc. Of course this is not what big tech, governments and billionaire's want. So if we will not learn from history, global conflicts between elites and ordinary citizens is inevitable.

aurizon 5y ago

Ah, this has the risk of the rise of a race of 'Pigeons' - we have seen how cities have 'do not feed...' signs. This is usually the end case of people taking pity on the hard life they have = free food = pigeon numbers tend towards infinity... That said, what will we do if the rise of newly created jobs does not match the number of people rendered unemployed by newtech? So far the newjobs have stayed ahead and even exceeded losses = worker shortages = drives even more automation. I suggest instead of free money to people, UBI, we have free education for people of an automated nature. By automated, I mean an 'AI' mediated system of education that is based on a highly AI operated method of teaching/training of almost all disciplines. This is quite doable - the MIT open course work (https://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm https://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm) is a leading example. This has grown into a huge and valuable resource. It needs further development to the point where segments are discoursed upon to a student. The student is then tested on a segment and failpoints identified - the courseware should then go over these failpoints with a more detailed discourse, perhaps varying the POV, leading to a retest and even more detailed discourses. This will accomodate students of varying capability. At some point the limits of that students intellect has been reached in that segment. On to the next stage - perhaps a human teacher can take the students to the next level, or he has plateaued on that module. On to the next in a continuing process with a new module that the student is capable of achieving. The system will accumulate a profile and will seek to expand the capability of the student across a wide range of modules in all human disciplines to, hopefully, keep making progress. The student will be paid for his work and rewarded for his continued progress - even if minimal, as this is to replace a dole with rewarded work. As the student progresses he will at some point (I hope) reach a point where his capabilities meet/exceed the needs of a genuine job - which he can take and which will bring far higher wages. Some will, some will not, but they will all be on a path of continued education, Math, Physics, Roman History, Music, Art etc. Since 24/7 study can be a little daunting, there will be game modules, recreational reading - Sci-Fi, Super Hero action novels etc. to break the pace = recess for the mind. I feel this can work, as the people climb in skill, they can be the humans that help the others (through teacher training modules - what else?). I feel this may be better than increasing the number of Human Pigeons towards infinity.