8 ms·

Ok but even if, do they really think the sanctions would lift if they go nuclear?

hutrdvnj 5y ago
I don't think that the response of NATO states would be more economic sanctions.
mcv 5y ago
Probably not. Putin painted himself in a corner: he can't accept defeat, as it would weaken his position in Russia. He needs a victory, and there's simply no way he can win this conflict on short notice. And from what I understand, Russia can't maintain this conflict long term. The only possible "win" (using the term very loosely) for him is probably to utterly destroy Ukraine. Or at least scare everybody to the point that they believe he will utterly destroy Ukraine. Will it lift sanctions? Probably not, but it might save his position in Russia, and without the expense of an ongoing war, Russia might be able to persevere through the sanctions. Keep in mind that the sanctions are hurting the West too. Will they maintain them even after the war has ended? Putin might hope they won't. It's all a ridiculous long shot, though. Putin is in serious trouble. He has to win this, and there are no good ways to accomplish that. So that might bring terrible ways to accomplish it on the table.
- virgilp 5y ago
  > The only possible "win" (using the term very loosely) for him is probably to utterly destroy Ukraine. That's not a win insofar as it doesn't guarantee his position at home - it likely further weakens it. For a "win" he'd have to, at the least, actually win the war - Chechnya-style. But I'm not convinced this is possible. I argue it's somewhat more probable that he can pull off a "North Korea" (get defeated in the war, but isolate the country & tighten the screws to insure continuation of his regime in spite of the economic situation at home) - but even this seems iffy to me. Seems to me like the only reasonable way out for him is if US (or somebody) agrees to "extract" him to somewhere safe & anonymous, where he can live a peaceful life as a retired person. Publicly, they can pretend whatever is more convenient. Sure, it's not _justice_, but it might be the least painful way out of this conflict for everyone. Not sure Putin would agree though/ his ego might get in the way.
  - mcv 5y ago
    Yeah, I'd love to see him punished, but I'm totally fine to see him retired Napoleon-style, if that ensures a quick end to this and possibly even freedom for Russia. For Russia, the best way out would definitely be to get rid of Putin and replace him with somebody the international community likes, who respects democracy, peace, and has as little ties to Putin's regime or his oligarchs as possible. Maybe someone like Gary Kasparov.
usrbinbash 5y ago
> do they really think the sanctions would lift They know they won't. They know that the opposite would happen. Just one consequence of using a nuclear warhead in a war of aggression: Complete economic isolation. No one in the western world would do business with them for decades to come, and no one who wants their business with the western world to continue would either. Just one small example of what such isolation would mean for Russia: Europe would cut off all gas and oil trades. Would be difficult for Europe, but in that scenario, not impossible to bear. For Russia however, that's 40% of the GDP gone, just like that.

I don't think that the response of NATO states would be more economic sanctions.

mcv 5y ago

Probably not. Putin painted himself in a corner: he can't accept defeat, as it would weaken his position in Russia. He needs a victory, and there's simply no way he can win this conflict on short notice. And from what I understand, Russia can't maintain this conflict long term. The only possible "win" (using the term very loosely) for him is probably to utterly destroy Ukraine. Or at least scare everybody to the point that they believe he will utterly destroy Ukraine. Will it lift sanctions? Probably not, but it might save his position in Russia, and without the expense of an ongoing war, Russia might be able to persevere through the sanctions. Keep in mind that the sanctions are hurting the West too. Will they maintain them even after the war has ended? Putin might hope they won't. It's all a ridiculous long shot, though. Putin is in serious trouble. He has to win this, and there are no good ways to accomplish that. So that might bring terrible ways to accomplish it on the table.

virgilp 5y ago
> The only possible "win" (using the term very loosely) for him is probably to utterly destroy Ukraine. That's not a win insofar as it doesn't guarantee his position at home - it likely further weakens it. For a "win" he'd have to, at the least, actually win the war - Chechnya-style. But I'm not convinced this is possible. I argue it's somewhat more probable that he can pull off a "North Korea" (get defeated in the war, but isolate the country & tighten the screws to insure continuation of his regime in spite of the economic situation at home) - but even this seems iffy to me. Seems to me like the only reasonable way out for him is if US (or somebody) agrees to "extract" him to somewhere safe & anonymous, where he can live a peaceful life as a retired person. Publicly, they can pretend whatever is more convenient. Sure, it's not _justice_, but it might be the least painful way out of this conflict for everyone. Not sure Putin would agree though/ his ego might get in the way.
- mcv 5y ago
  Yeah, I'd love to see him punished, but I'm totally fine to see him retired Napoleon-style, if that ensures a quick end to this and possibly even freedom for Russia. For Russia, the best way out would definitely be to get rid of Putin and replace him with somebody the international community likes, who respects democracy, peace, and has as little ties to Putin's regime or his oligarchs as possible. Maybe someone like Gary Kasparov.

usrbinbash 5y ago

> do they really think the sanctions would lift They know they won't. They know that the opposite would happen. Just one consequence of using a nuclear warhead in a war of aggression: Complete economic isolation. No one in the western world would do business with them for decades to come, and no one who wants their business with the western world to continue would either. Just one small example of what such isolation would mean for Russia: Europe would cut off all gas and oil trades. Would be difficult for Europe, but in that scenario, not impossible to bear. For Russia however, that's 40% of the GDP gone, just like that.