This is speculation, but it may be because oil production doesn't outstrip demand by much. The world uses a certain amount of fuel in a day. Oil batteries, re

This is speculation, but it may be because oil production doesn't outstrip demand by much. The world uses a certain amount of fuel in a day. Oil batteries, refineries, pipelines, etc. are designed to supply that, but not much more. Similar to chip supply chains, there isn't a lot of excess production and storage capacity built into the system because that doesn't generate income. If this is the case, then removing a major producer, such as Russia, will create shortages. Demand exceeds supply and prices go up. Even just the fear of bans could drive prices up.