3 ms·

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you about Iraq 2003, and I'm not saying that claims like that are always true or always false (I think it's obvious that it onl

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you about Iraq 2003, and I'm not saying that claims like that are always true or always false (I think it's obvious that it only makes sense to assess such claims in context). All Putin's talk of "de-nazification" as a war aim, of WMD, and a whole host of other stuff is total pretextual fiction, and absolutely makes it harder to negotiate any kind of end to the war now, because pretext has a zombie-like ability to live on and prevent peace, even if there is agreement to resolve the real causes. But this war was a serious possibility even without those pretexts. Russia was incredibly weak, militarily and economically (both are closely linked) at the time of previous NATO expansions that mattered to Russia (1999, 2004). It's not strong now. Ukraine may be a worse quagmire than the SU in Afghanistan. But it does now seem to be able to stretch itself and probably win the immediate war against the Ukrainian military proper. They have complained about NATO expansion for 15 years, and finally have the capability to do what all great powers do: force their will through unjust means, and call it just. The sooner there is some agreement to resolve the real causes, the less impact the pretextual bullshit will have in preventing that peace. And as I said before, if I'm wrong, possibly WW3 will just be delayed slightly, but Russia is still not strong enough to do what everyone is implying with their WW2 references, so I don't see it happening.

dundarious 5y ago
I should have said, they have complained about NATO expansion since the fall of the USSR (and obviously before, but that's irrelevant), when NATO gave Gorbachev assurances that NATO would not expand "one inch eastward" after German reunification. They've been very vocally critical of NATO expansion into Ukraine for 15 years (and probably longer), and the West has known that Ukraine was specifically significant for 15 years (and probably longer).

dundarious 5y ago

I should have said, they have complained about NATO expansion since the fall of the USSR (and obviously before, but that's irrelevant), when NATO gave Gorbachev assurances that NATO would not expand "one inch eastward" after German reunification. They've been very vocally critical of NATO expansion into Ukraine for 15 years (and probably longer), and the West has known that Ukraine was specifically significant for 15 years (and probably longer).