5 ms·

Realize that right now, everyone is telling ghost stories. It will. Not. Happen. Russia has lost the war already, due to their logistical failure. There is no

Realize that right now, everyone is telling ghost stories. It will. Not. Happen. Russia has lost the war already, due to their logistical failure. There is no recovery. Putin has no choice but to stop. He can’t escalate because it wouldn’t make any progress. You need to snap out of it for your own well being. Consider this some tough love. Here’s what’s going to happen. In two months, news will fade, or have faded. In six months, people will occasionally reference the war. In one year, you’ll realize that right now, we all sound as foolish as those people who tried to buy 500 rolls of toilet paper during peak covid. As if we couldn’t wash ourselves in the shower if worse came to worst. The flip side of it is, nothing you do to prepare will matter if it happens. Which it won’t. So close Orange Website and play a game, read a book, write some music, get drunk, or just watch Netflix. You know, the standard weekend stuff. That’s how to prepare for ww3. I doubt there’s a more optimal strategy for the non ultra wealthy.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> Russia has lost the war already, due to their logistical failure. While true, I don't think this reduces the danger of a nuclear attack, especially given the way Putin has escalated WMD (both nuclear and bioweapons) propaganda against (in both cases) the US and Ukraine in the last couple days. All signs are that Russia will, in the space of a few weeks of this war, see greater damage in blood and treasure than the USSR endured in a decade in Afghanistan. This is unprecedented territory in terms of cornered, desperate leadership in a major nuclear power, and without the kind of drip-drip decentralization that had preceded (and provided alternate powerbases during) the terminal period of the USSR.
jacquesm 5y ago
- sillysaurusx 5y ago
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    - sillysaurusx 5y ago
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > There is one key difference: people were mistaken about the war. That was a obvious to a lot of us in advance. But, even so, they has a much better case than you do for “nuclear war won't happen”. “Putin is defeated in the conventional war and has no realistic path to victory” is a reasonable, if slightly overcertain, take. But it doesn't even begin to support “and, so, he won't use nukes.”
  - dang 5y ago
    Please do not make personal attacks. You know that's not ok here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - sillysaurusx 5y ago
      I know this is hard to believe, but I was being genuine. That is actually how I talk in real life. I really do think it would be cute if he had a French accent. I like our interactions. You’ve always misread me, and all I can do is shrug and say okay. It probably looked like an attack since you have to fend them off all day. But if you re-read, this time as an exchange between colleagues, I think you’ll agree it was just ascii being a very bad medium of conveying intonation. (For reference, at one point Jacques and I were exchanging numbers back in 2016, when my life was full of doom. I hope he feels as warmly towards me as I do to him.) I would like to take this opportunity to say that — if you’ll spare just a moment for me — perhaps you’ve assigned negative traits to a lot of my actions. And that maybe I am not so bad, and perhaps now that I’ve recovered from my medical issue, you’d like some more Emacs tooling. Or, we could just respect each other from afar and leave it at that. (I appreciate you keeping me in check, though. Be sure to ask me in the future if you do notice bad behavior. I’ll listen carefully.)
- Trasmatta 5y ago
  > The same stuff was said about invasion in Ukraine not 14 days ago and look where we are now. 14 days ago (and before) there were plenty of highly credible people saying that the invasion of Ukraine was very likely. It didn't really take anyone who was paying close attention by surprise.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Precisely, but those weren't the people on HN telling us Russia wouldn't invade. So here we are again: 'this war is already over'. I can't believe I'm reading this, I'm sure the Ukraine high command would roll right over if they were told that they are fighting a war that is already over and done with, that any chance of escalation is now off the table and we can start rebuilding. /s You really can't make this stuff up. Sure, let's not panic. But there is serious potential for escalation especially because Russia is losing, on the battleground, in the public eye and even within Russia itself, it doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.
    - sillysaurusx 5y ago
      It’s over in the same sense that WW2 was over for Japan after losing Midway. That’s not to say they’ve surrendered yet. All Ukraine needs to do is continue picking off Russian supply convoys, as they’ve been doing. Russia can’t do a thing. Now, I probably come off as an arrogant American, since I am not the one whose bottom is at risk of being nuked. But the way I see it, Putin literally can’t attempt to use nukes without being killed. There are limits to one man’s power. If the Russians felt they were at risk, the way they were during the Cold War, then yes. But not now. I am sorry if this idea offends you for some reason, but we all have our perspectives. I hear yours, that Russia is somehow going to interrupt the lives of the average Londoner, and it seems the odds of going out in a car crash is much higher. How do you suggest we resolve this disparity?
kvetching 5y ago

dragonwriter 5y ago

> Russia has lost the war already, due to their logistical failure. While true, I don't think this reduces the danger of a nuclear attack, especially given the way Putin has escalated WMD (both nuclear and bioweapons) propaganda against (in both cases) the US and Ukraine in the last couple days. All signs are that Russia will, in the space of a few weeks of this war, see greater damage in blood and treasure than the USSR endured in a decade in Afghanistan. This is unprecedented territory in terms of cornered, desperate leadership in a major nuclear power, and without the kind of drip-drip decentralization that had preceded (and provided alternate powerbases during) the terminal period of the USSR.

jacquesm 5y ago

sillysaurusx 5y ago
- jacquesm 5y ago
  - sillysaurusx 5y ago
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > There is one key difference: people were mistaken about the war. That was a obvious to a lot of us in advance. But, even so, they has a much better case than you do for “nuclear war won't happen”. “Putin is defeated in the conventional war and has no realistic path to victory” is a reasonable, if slightly overcertain, take. But it doesn't even begin to support “and, so, he won't use nukes.”
- dang 5y ago
  Please do not make personal attacks. You know that's not ok here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - sillysaurusx 5y ago
    I know this is hard to believe, but I was being genuine. That is actually how I talk in real life. I really do think it would be cute if he had a French accent. I like our interactions. You’ve always misread me, and all I can do is shrug and say okay. It probably looked like an attack since you have to fend them off all day. But if you re-read, this time as an exchange between colleagues, I think you’ll agree it was just ascii being a very bad medium of conveying intonation. (For reference, at one point Jacques and I were exchanging numbers back in 2016, when my life was full of doom. I hope he feels as warmly towards me as I do to him.) I would like to take this opportunity to say that — if you’ll spare just a moment for me — perhaps you’ve assigned negative traits to a lot of my actions. And that maybe I am not so bad, and perhaps now that I’ve recovered from my medical issue, you’d like some more Emacs tooling. Or, we could just respect each other from afar and leave it at that. (I appreciate you keeping me in check, though. Be sure to ask me in the future if you do notice bad behavior. I’ll listen carefully.)
Trasmatta 5y ago
> The same stuff was said about invasion in Ukraine not 14 days ago and look where we are now. 14 days ago (and before) there were plenty of highly credible people saying that the invasion of Ukraine was very likely. It didn't really take anyone who was paying close attention by surprise.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Precisely, but those weren't the people on HN telling us Russia wouldn't invade. So here we are again: 'this war is already over'. I can't believe I'm reading this, I'm sure the Ukraine high command would roll right over if they were told that they are fighting a war that is already over and done with, that any chance of escalation is now off the table and we can start rebuilding. /s You really can't make this stuff up. Sure, let's not panic. But there is serious potential for escalation especially because Russia is losing, on the battleground, in the public eye and even within Russia itself, it doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.
  - sillysaurusx 5y ago
    It’s over in the same sense that WW2 was over for Japan after losing Midway. That’s not to say they’ve surrendered yet. All Ukraine needs to do is continue picking off Russian supply convoys, as they’ve been doing. Russia can’t do a thing. Now, I probably come off as an arrogant American, since I am not the one whose bottom is at risk of being nuked. But the way I see it, Putin literally can’t attempt to use nukes without being killed. There are limits to one man’s power. If the Russians felt they were at risk, the way they were during the Cold War, then yes. But not now. I am sorry if this idea offends you for some reason, but we all have our perspectives. I hear yours, that Russia is somehow going to interrupt the lives of the average Londoner, and it seems the odds of going out in a car crash is much higher. How do you suggest we resolve this disparity?

kvetching 5y ago