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It “smells right” to a Western audience, but seems a little too good to be true. Right now objective #1 for Ukraine is to get NATO to implement a no-fly zone.

by jl6 5y ago

It “smells right” to a Western audience, but seems a little too good to be true. Right now objective #1 for Ukraine is to get NATO to implement a no-fly zone. NATO are reluctant because of the risk of escalating into a direct war with nuclear-armed Russia. The payload of this letter is the claim that the Russian nuclear deterrent is in a state of disrepair, or that cooler heads will prevent it being used. And thus if we believe this, there should be no reason for NATO not to grant Ukraine its wish.

rizkeyz 5y ago
This. While I believe the part about chaos and surprise and fake reports it also makes it seem that Russia is weak - which is probably dangerous to assume (of any undefeated opponent). However, one positive note to get out of this in any case is that with the current trajectory, even without any further outside intervention going beyond the current state of affairs will likely bring the Russian special operation to an end, be it that supplies are running out or people just start to lose overview or just that you cannot succeed if maybe 20-40% of your forces are gone even before you capture one bigger target. Russia supposedly already lost 10% of their attack army and they don't have a lot to show for it. It also explains their attack patterns getting more weird, uncivilized and cruel (e.g. "we have to do something", even if it is firing on nuclear power plants). Next step likely will be Belarus troops and supplies entering the game, which makes it more obvious that Moscow was absolutely clueless. Belarus was on the brink of a regime change just last summer - the order to go to war with Russia against Ukraine will send Belarus over the edge, I am virtually certain about that.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
NATO is never going to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. Anyone who thinks that they are is living in a dream world.
- jessaustin 5y ago
  Yeah, this guy has definitely been living in a dream world for some time: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-05-22/h_6ecbb18224dc7ef55170557a28047547 https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-puti...
  - colinmhayes 5y ago
    Zelensky calling for a no fly zone is not even close to him expecting it to happen.
    - jessaustin 5y ago
      He probably expects it a lot less now than he did a month ago. He's now learning that the most important goal in a proxy war is not to be the proxy.

by jl6 5y ago

rizkeyz 5y ago

This. While I believe the part about chaos and surprise and fake reports it also makes it seem that Russia is weak - which is probably dangerous to assume (of any undefeated opponent). However, one positive note to get out of this in any case is that with the current trajectory, even without any further outside intervention going beyond the current state of affairs will likely bring the Russian special operation to an end, be it that supplies are running out or people just start to lose overview or just that you cannot succeed if maybe 20-40% of your forces are gone even before you capture one bigger target. Russia supposedly already lost 10% of their attack army and they don't have a lot to show for it. It also explains their attack patterns getting more weird, uncivilized and cruel (e.g. "we have to do something", even if it is firing on nuclear power plants). Next step likely will be Belarus troops and supplies entering the game, which makes it more obvious that Moscow was absolutely clueless. Belarus was on the brink of a regime change just last summer - the order to go to war with Russia against Ukraine will send Belarus over the edge, I am virtually certain about that.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

NATO is never going to establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. Anyone who thinks that they are is living in a dream world.

jessaustin 5y ago
Yeah, this guy has definitely been living in a dream world for some time: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-05-22/h_6ecbb18224dc7ef55170557a28047547 https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-puti...
- colinmhayes 5y ago
  Zelensky calling for a no fly zone is not even close to him expecting it to happen.
  - jessaustin 5y ago
    He probably expects it a lot less now than he did a month ago. He's now learning that the most important goal in a proxy war is not to be the proxy.