4 ms·

Ask HN: Where can we see simulations of a nuclear war?

32 points by trifit 5y ago

Curious on any resources on potential fallout and wind carried radiation clouds.

fbhabbed 5y ago
https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno Closest I can think of
agency 5y ago
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
yogsototh 5y ago
not really a simulation but the movie “threads” gives what seems to be a very crude and realistic potential scenario viewed from the population standpoint.
- echoradio 5y ago
  A post about “Threads” appeared on HN a few days ago, for anyone interested. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30540652 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30540652
  - flohofwoe 5y ago
    Also the US movie "The Day After", and the Soviet movie "Letters from a dead man" come to mind. We discussed those in school in East Germany in the 80's. TL;DR: not much point in "simulating" a nuclear war, it will be the end anyway.
- fiftyacorn 5y ago
  I still have nightmares about threads - the interesting thing about threads is that it shows the expect tactical flow of nuclear war at the time where they expected a big city, but not london to be the first target. It was always presumed Birmingham, UK would be hit first When the wind blows by Raymond Briggs is scary too as its so matter of fact
techdragon 5y ago
I’d like to recommend the game DEFCON by Introversion Software. It’s not a proper war simulation but it is an excellent game/simulation regarding the concept of MAD. It’s fundamentally a game where you win by not being the biggest loser. It covers the building tensions and eventual first send and even third strike nuclear warfare quite well from a simplistic high level.
- Stevvo 5y ago
  Loved all of these guys games, although never really got into Darwinia like many people.
CommieBobDole 5y ago
There's a bunch of FEMA stuff out there. Most of it is from the '80s and '90s but is probably still relevant. https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/napb-90/annexb.pdf https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/napb-90/annexb.pdf http://www.radmeters4u.com/list.htm http://www.radmeters4u.com/list.htm https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fallout_map_USA_(FEMA).jpg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fallout_map_USA_(FEM... https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_planning-guidance-response-nuclear-detonation.pdf https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_plan...
hodgesrm 5y ago
Why do you want to know? This is a serious question. I'm asking because I find the hobby-level interest in nuclear war kind of offensive. It trivializes a profound threat to humanity.
- hnarayanan 5y ago
  Curiosity?
- altdataseller 5y ago
  Some folks want to be prepared. Sure in a full fledged nuclear war, everyone will die but consequences don’t have to be binary. There could be smaller scale weapon attacks directed a 1-2 cities, etc and chances of survival could be high if you are prepared on what to do next
- hogrider 5y ago
  It's good to inform yourself. For starters, evwn WWIII nuclear war really wouldn't be the ebd of humanity, just nuclear winter for a couple of decades.
Tepix 5y ago
Are there any estimates on the effect on world climate if we launch 10 nukes? 50? 100? 500? 1000?
Everhusk 5y ago
Here's a quick post on it https://twitter.com/earthsukh/status/1498577111296221188 https://twitter.com/earthsukh/status/1498577111296221188 It's based on this video from Prof. Brian Toon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzwHbHlK5kI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzwHbHlK5kI, who to my knowledge has done the most in depth studies on it.
Daniel1Rosen 5y ago
If Russia is prevented from destroying military facilities in Ukraine, we will see nuclear war with our own eyes.
Dracophoenix 5y ago
They're not simulations of nuclear war per se, but read up on the Sigma War Games. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigma_war_games https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigma_war_games
tgamblin 5y ago
Not a nuclear war simulation, but what you’re asking about is the mission of NARAC at LLNL: https://narac.llnl.gov https://narac.llnl.gov NARAC monitors and predicts the spread of wind/water carried nuclear, biological, chemical, and other hazardous materials in emergencies. You can see videos of recent responses on their website; the highest profile one was probably the Fukushima disaster (if you remember the various evacuation recommendations, NARAC guided the US ones). Here are some more: https://narac.llnl.gov/about/timeline https://narac.llnl.gov/about/timeline, including the Eyjafjallajökull volcano. They run in some of their own (comparatively) smaller clusters for quick turnaround simulations, as well as on LLNL’s bigger HPC systems (https://hpc.llnl.gov/hardware/compute-platforms https://hpc.llnl.gov/hardware/compute-platforms) when there’s a need.
admissionsguy 5y ago
There is a recent (2019) Princeton study of a large scale nuclear war between NATO and Russia [1]. They assume most strikes would be against military targets and predict immediate fatalities of "just" around 3% of the NATO+Russia's total population. While that does not count fallout and indirect effects, it seems far from apocalyptic (although some areas/countries are certain to be absolutely devastated). The more I read about it, the less clear it is to me that globally, a nuclear war would be worse than a large-scale WW2-style conventional conflict (during which, for example, over 20% of Polish population died). On a more granular scale, Nukemaps [2], which probably everyone knows by now, shows the area of fallout for a given blast based on real-time wind data. [1] https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war [2] https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

32 points by trifit 5y ago

Curious on any resources on potential fallout and wind carried radiation clouds.

https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno Closest I can think of

agency 5y ago

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

yogsototh 5y ago

not really a simulation but the movie “threads” gives what seems to be a very crude and realistic potential scenario viewed from the population standpoint.

echoradio 5y ago
A post about “Threads” appeared on HN a few days ago, for anyone interested. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30540652 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30540652
- flohofwoe 5y ago
  Also the US movie "The Day After", and the Soviet movie "Letters from a dead man" come to mind. We discussed those in school in East Germany in the 80's. TL;DR: not much point in "simulating" a nuclear war, it will be the end anyway.
fiftyacorn 5y ago
I still have nightmares about threads - the interesting thing about threads is that it shows the expect tactical flow of nuclear war at the time where they expected a big city, but not london to be the first target. It was always presumed Birmingham, UK would be hit first When the wind blows by Raymond Briggs is scary too as its so matter of fact

techdragon 5y ago

I’d like to recommend the game DEFCON by Introversion Software. It’s not a proper war simulation but it is an excellent game/simulation regarding the concept of MAD. It’s fundamentally a game where you win by not being the biggest loser. It covers the building tensions and eventual first send and even third strike nuclear warfare quite well from a simplistic high level.

Stevvo 5y ago
Loved all of these guys games, although never really got into Darwinia like many people.

CommieBobDole 5y ago

There's a bunch of FEMA stuff out there. Most of it is from the '80s and '90s but is probably still relevant. https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/napb-90/annexb.pdf https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/napb-90/annexb.pdf http://www.radmeters4u.com/list.htm http://www.radmeters4u.com/list.htm https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fallout_map_USA_(FEMA).jpg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fallout_map_USA_(FEM... https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_planning-guidance-response-nuclear-detonation.pdf https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_plan...

hodgesrm 5y ago

Why do you want to know? This is a serious question. I'm asking because I find the hobby-level interest in nuclear war kind of offensive. It trivializes a profound threat to humanity.

hnarayanan 5y ago
Curiosity?
altdataseller 5y ago
Some folks want to be prepared. Sure in a full fledged nuclear war, everyone will die but consequences don’t have to be binary. There could be smaller scale weapon attacks directed a 1-2 cities, etc and chances of survival could be high if you are prepared on what to do next
hogrider 5y ago
It's good to inform yourself. For starters, evwn WWIII nuclear war really wouldn't be the ebd of humanity, just nuclear winter for a couple of decades.

Tepix 5y ago

Are there any estimates on the effect on world climate if we launch 10 nukes? 50? 100? 500? 1000?

Everhusk 5y ago

Here's a quick post on it https://twitter.com/earthsukh/status/1498577111296221188 https://twitter.com/earthsukh/status/1498577111296221188 It's based on this video from Prof. Brian Toon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzwHbHlK5kI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzwHbHlK5kI, who to my knowledge has done the most in depth studies on it.

Daniel1Rosen 5y ago

If Russia is prevented from destroying military facilities in Ukraine, we will see nuclear war with our own eyes.

Dracophoenix 5y ago

They're not simulations of nuclear war per se, but read up on the Sigma War Games. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigma_war_games https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigma_war_games

tgamblin 5y ago

Not a nuclear war simulation, but what you’re asking about is the mission of NARAC at LLNL: https://narac.llnl.gov https://narac.llnl.gov NARAC monitors and predicts the spread of wind/water carried nuclear, biological, chemical, and other hazardous materials in emergencies. You can see videos of recent responses on their website; the highest profile one was probably the Fukushima disaster (if you remember the various evacuation recommendations, NARAC guided the US ones). Here are some more: https://narac.llnl.gov/about/timeline https://narac.llnl.gov/about/timeline, including the Eyjafjallajökull volcano. They run in some of their own (comparatively) smaller clusters for quick turnaround simulations, as well as on LLNL’s bigger HPC systems (https://hpc.llnl.gov/hardware/compute-platforms https://hpc.llnl.gov/hardware/compute-platforms) when there’s a need.

admissionsguy 5y ago

There is a recent (2019) Princeton study of a large scale nuclear war between NATO and Russia [1]. They assume most strikes would be against military targets and predict immediate fatalities of "just" around 3% of the NATO+Russia's total population. While that does not count fallout and indirect effects, it seems far from apocalyptic (although some areas/countries are certain to be absolutely devastated). The more I read about it, the less clear it is to me that globally, a nuclear war would be worse than a large-scale WW2-style conventional conflict (during which, for example, over 20% of Polish population died). On a more granular scale, Nukemaps [2], which probably everyone knows by now, shows the area of fallout for a given blast based on real-time wind data. [1] https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war https://www.icanw.org/new_study_on_us_russia_nuclear_war [2] https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/