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Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Wheat prices are through the roof right now [1], it's only going

Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Wheat prices are through the roof right now [1], it's only going to get worse. So short-term impact pretty much guaranteed. Longer term, much of the euro zone agriculture is very dependent on fertilizers that are either produced using Russian natural gas or directly bought from there. Cost of growing food, if the situation doesn't improve, will increase dramatically. So, in other words, major increase in food shortages is a likely scenario indeed. [1] https://live.euronext.com/en/product/commodities-futures/EBM-DPAR https://live.euronext.com/en/product/commodities-futures/EBM...

sumedh 5y ago
> Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. I dont think the US and Europe really care about that, they will send some token supplies but its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.
- roca 5y ago
  The only way to guarantee sustained Ukrainian grain production is for the Russians to withdraw or for Ukrainians to surrender. I don't think the Ukrainians are obliged to surrender to stop people in other countries from starving. This is on Russia.
  - greggsy 5y ago
    Would the Ukrainian agricultural sectors continue to operate effectively if Russia fully occupied the country, knowing that their wealth might be stolen? Would Russia move to bring their own oligarchs in to colonise and control production? Either way the restoration of production would take much longer than if Russia simply retreated.
- ur-whale 5y ago
  > its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving. Up until the point where the problem spills over the borders and into Europe.
hestefisk 5y ago
That said, EU destroys an incredible amount of food each year (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-leaving-eu-farming-agriculture https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit...). Perhaps some of this could be put to good use. Also don’t forget Australia and America are huge grain producers and should be able to ramp up exports.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  Didn't America have a poor wheat harvest last year?

sumedh 5y ago

> Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. I dont think the US and Europe really care about that, they will send some token supplies but its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.

roca 5y ago
The only way to guarantee sustained Ukrainian grain production is for the Russians to withdraw or for Ukrainians to surrender. I don't think the Ukrainians are obliged to surrender to stop people in other countries from starving. This is on Russia.
- greggsy 5y ago
  Would the Ukrainian agricultural sectors continue to operate effectively if Russia fully occupied the country, knowing that their wealth might be stolen? Would Russia move to bring their own oligarchs in to colonise and control production? Either way the restoration of production would take much longer than if Russia simply retreated.
ur-whale 5y ago
> its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving. Up until the point where the problem spills over the borders and into Europe.

hestefisk 5y ago

That said, EU destroys an incredible amount of food each year (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-leaving-eu-farming-agriculture https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit...). Perhaps some of this could be put to good use. Also don’t forget Australia and America are huge grain producers and should be able to ramp up exports.

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
Didn't America have a poor wheat harvest last year?