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Highly unlikely that they can stir up anything that far away. Another fact working against this theory is that B&H has EUFOR and NATO bases and is surrounded by

Highly unlikely that they can stir up anything that far away. Another fact working against this theory is that B&H has EUFOR and NATO bases and is surrounded by mostly NATO members. I think the recent situation around Ukraine actually diminishes the possibility of turmoil in B&H because Western powers are now more eager to use the Office of the High Representative to remove from power anyone who works against peace in B&H.

Borrible 5y ago
The Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely? https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/CHRG-115shrg28945.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C... https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info... https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping-block-potential-violence-steps-prevent/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-state-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnian-serbs-are-playing-with-fire-a-f9daaf05-9c06-42ef-82ea-8a3826bf45bd https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat... https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukraine-the-Balkans-hold-their-breath-216258 https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra... https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group-to-hold-pro-russia-rally/ https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group... https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-anti-terrorism-strategy-in-serbia/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...
- DeWilde 5y ago
  I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling. The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
  - Borrible 5y ago
    You are probably right. Considering the piss poor performance of the Russian military, supporting the Russian Blood Brothers on the front line is probably a sacred duty for nationalistic Serbian extremists. Apparently, the Russians even need external experts for their war crimes, as they recruit war-experienced Syrians as mercenaries. I assume that the Serbian experts in this field will work for Mother Russia for free. This will probably relieve B&H from that pest, temporarily. Until those fighters return. Of course, If they do. Wouldn't mind to see them die there.

Borrible 5y ago

The Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely? https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/CHRG-115shrg28945.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C... https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info... https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping-block-potential-violence-steps-prevent/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-state-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnian-serbs-are-playing-with-fire-a-f9daaf05-9c06-42ef-82ea-8a3826bf45bd https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat... https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukraine-the-Balkans-hold-their-breath-216258 https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra... https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group-to-hold-pro-russia-rally/ https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group... https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-anti-terrorism-strategy-in-serbia/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...

DeWilde 5y ago
I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling. The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
- Borrible 5y ago
  You are probably right. Considering the piss poor performance of the Russian military, supporting the Russian Blood Brothers on the front line is probably a sacred duty for nationalistic Serbian extremists. Apparently, the Russians even need external experts for their war crimes, as they recruit war-experienced Syrians as mercenaries. I assume that the Serbian experts in this field will work for Mother Russia for free. This will probably relieve B&H from that pest, temporarily. Until those fighters return. Of course, If they do. Wouldn't mind to see them die there.