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But my point is why start with broad sanctions applied to every Russian citizen instead of putting an immediate end to us directly subsidizing Putin’s was machi

by lowkey 5y ago

But my point is why start with broad sanctions applied to every Russian citizen instead of putting an immediate end to us directly subsidizing Putin’s was machine? Clearly the latter is more focused on the Russian government, ends a direct subsidy of our money paying for this war, and has much less direct impact on poor and struggling everyday Russians?

toomanyrichies 5y ago
I'm not an economist, nor was I in the room when the sanctions decision was made. I can only guess that the experts who were in the room decided that depriving Putin of economic means was a time-sensitive process, and that petro-sanctions alone would take longer to have their effect than the Ukrainian army could hold out. At the very least, that's one of many possibilities of what happened.
Const-me 5y ago
Putin can write a new law which says all personal banks accounts are now nationalized. He can also inflate the currency by orders of magnitude, and make it a crime to own USD/EUR cache (it was a crime in USSR). And that's why the broad sanctions. Russian government can always milk population for money, as long as the population has the money. They did it quite a few times in the 20-th century, e.g. rouble was denominated by an order of magnitude in 1961, and by 3 orders of magnitude in 1997. For this reason, focused sanctions not gonna work.
- lowkey 5y ago
  It seems you are speculating that Putin’s response to Oil & Gas sanctions would be to nationalize all bank accounts and therefore broad sanctions are the only measure that could work. Let’s say that were true. Why then should the west not apply broad sanctions AND include sanctions on Oil & Gas exports as well? It seems to me that this policy would shut down Putin’s war machine faster than either measure alone. I suspect the real reason the west chose to exclude oil & gas from other sanctions is the same reason the sanctions include a carve-out for selling Italian luxury goods to Russian elites. Namely that the west is equally willing to impose pain on the Russian people as it is on Russia’s elites but they are unwilling to take more effective action since it would be politically risky and may impede their chances of re-election - even though it would effectively end the war in Ukraine immediately.
  - Const-me 5y ago
    > Why then should the west not apply broad sanctions AND include sanctions on Oil & Gas exports as well? That's exactly what we're doing. If we ban Russian oil & gas overnight, the markets will freak out and the damage to our economy will be too large. The negotiations to re-route oil & gas across the planet take time. I hope they already made some progress with Iran and Venezuela.

by lowkey 5y ago

toomanyrichies 5y ago

I'm not an economist, nor was I in the room when the sanctions decision was made. I can only guess that the experts who were in the room decided that depriving Putin of economic means was a time-sensitive process, and that petro-sanctions alone would take longer to have their effect than the Ukrainian army could hold out. At the very least, that's one of many possibilities of what happened.

Const-me 5y ago

Putin can write a new law which says all personal banks accounts are now nationalized. He can also inflate the currency by orders of magnitude, and make it a crime to own USD/EUR cache (it was a crime in USSR). And that's why the broad sanctions. Russian government can always milk population for money, as long as the population has the money. They did it quite a few times in the 20-th century, e.g. rouble was denominated by an order of magnitude in 1961, and by 3 orders of magnitude in 1997. For this reason, focused sanctions not gonna work.

lowkey 5y ago
It seems you are speculating that Putin’s response to Oil & Gas sanctions would be to nationalize all bank accounts and therefore broad sanctions are the only measure that could work. Let’s say that were true. Why then should the west not apply broad sanctions AND include sanctions on Oil & Gas exports as well? It seems to me that this policy would shut down Putin’s war machine faster than either measure alone. I suspect the real reason the west chose to exclude oil & gas from other sanctions is the same reason the sanctions include a carve-out for selling Italian luxury goods to Russian elites. Namely that the west is equally willing to impose pain on the Russian people as it is on Russia’s elites but they are unwilling to take more effective action since it would be politically risky and may impede their chances of re-election - even though it would effectively end the war in Ukraine immediately.
- Const-me 5y ago
  > Why then should the west not apply broad sanctions AND include sanctions on Oil & Gas exports as well? That's exactly what we're doing. If we ban Russian oil & gas overnight, the markets will freak out and the damage to our economy will be too large. The negotiations to re-route oil & gas across the planet take time. I hope they already made some progress with Iran and Venezuela.