6 ms·

I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weap

I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2] If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4] If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. [5,6] I am utterly utterly perplexed. Where is any semblance of proof that Russia is doing badly? They seem to be encircling the capital and winning city after city. It's only two weeks in. Did we expect better after the early adrenaline rush? Do they benefit from being told this? Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians? [0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-militias/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/ukraine-russ... [1]: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-releases-prisoners-combat-experience-war-russia-volodymyr-zelensky-1683175 https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-releases-prisoners-combat-e... [2]: https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-falling-apart-russia-advances-slovakia-poland-bulgaria-1683588 https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-fall... [3]: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-oon-kst-gertv-boyovyh-donbas/31110937.html https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-oon-kst-gertv-boyovyh-do... [4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80... [5]: https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-pilot/a-60951825 https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh... [6]: https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s=20&t=qurEK3YFjlm7dN114M5HOA https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s...

plorkyeran 5y ago
I legitimately don't understand how people keep interpreting "this doesn't seem to be going how Russia hoped it would" as "Ukraine is obviously winning". Those aren't the same thing at all.
- bingohbangoh 5y ago
  Where is the proof or source that this isn’t going as Russia would hope?
nulld3v 5y ago
But is radiosvoboda even Ukrainian? I thought they were American. Was the Ghost of Kyiv story made up by the Ukrainians even? How do we know that? Also, Ukraine is doing well, considering their situation.
- bingohbangoh 5y ago
  I think it’s also what Ukraine (broadly speaking) believes https://web.archive.org/web/20220225201409/https://www.5.ua/ukrayina/pryvyd-kyieva-pilot-mih-29-za-30-hodyn-zdobuv-6-povitrianykh-peremoh-nad-okupantom-269346.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220225201409/https://www.5.ua/...
- fivefifty 5y ago
  I'm fairly sure the Ghost of Kyiv came from a DCS (digital combat simulator) player originally and is actually based on this short DCS movie called 'The Ghost' which has very similar core details. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM8tXUz2q0c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM8tXUz2q0c Also some of the original footage uploaded that was purported to be of the Ghost of Kyiv was from DCS and I believe was even admitted as such by the uploader but like most rumours it has since taken a life of it's own and the exploits become increasingly more exaggerated over time.
gruez 5y ago
>If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. [5,6] >[5]: https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh... [6]: https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s... Who's "they" in this case? The ukranian people? The ukranian government? The sources you suggest seem to suggest the former rather than the latter. If that's the case, I'm not really sure how that's indicative of not "obviously winning".
tablespoon 5y ago
> I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. Because it appears to be doing far better than expected. That doesn't mean they'll win, but it at least allows for a sliver of hope. Personally, I'm guessing they'll eventually lose a lot of territory without direct Western military intervention, but maybe there will still be Ukrainian rump state left in the West after this, which will still be an achievement if not a "win." > If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0]... Ukraine might be doing as well as it is, because of things like that. That's not proof that it's doing well or poorly, but rather it's putting all its resources into an existential fight. > If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. You're being waaay too hard on them. They're ten days into the literal fight for their lives, and if some social media rumor gives them a bit more morale amidst the fog of war, who cares? > Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians? That's a bit too conspiratorial. That's a likely outcome, because even after "unprecedented" action Ukraine's allies are unwilling to do enough to clearly tip the scales, but I doubt there's some plan to "setup to be told [that]."
- bingohbangoh 5y ago
  If, broadly speaking, the western media says that Russia won a Pyrrhic victory will I be right in saying this was an intentional setup or will it be that I simply got lucky?
  - vandreas2 5y ago
    Depends on the chances of pyrrhic victories in general. You score no points for predicting the most probable outcome. To reverse this, would you be right if you said that Russia won and Russian media agreed?
throwoutway 5y ago
Your (2) source does not match what you said. The Ukraine did no lie about the planes, the EU did: > The three nations were said to be forming the core of the EU effort—announced Monday by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell—as they are believed to be the only bloc members with flight-ready Russian-made aircraft. I’m hesitant to read your other sources now
fuj 5y ago
smegger001 5y ago
a major front in a modern war is digital propaganda. You have to keep your own peoples moral up and sap the will of the enemy, next you have to convince the rest of the world that your cause is just, winable and that they should suport you and demonize your enemy. Russia has failed on this front as their propaganda has been so transparently bad. they accused Ukraine of being run by Nazis, when their president and prime minister are both Jewish. they accused them of running death camps for Russian and all sort of other ridiculous slander so unbelievable the no one believes it. Ukraine has done all things considered pretty well outside of the examples you mentioned. As for arming civilians what do you expect a militarily inferior country to do when facing a stronger enemy and the rest of the world seems to afraid to send meaningful military aid. Its a battle for their survival. If I lived there I would be lining up to get gun too. the winning narrative is coming form them not being steam rolled like last time and them holding ground. Or from russian soldiers surrendering and going AWOL.

plorkyeran 5y ago

I legitimately don't understand how people keep interpreting "this doesn't seem to be going how Russia hoped it would" as "Ukraine is obviously winning". Those aren't the same thing at all.

bingohbangoh 5y ago
Where is the proof or source that this isn’t going as Russia would hope?

nulld3v 5y ago

But is radiosvoboda even Ukrainian? I thought they were American. Was the Ghost of Kyiv story made up by the Ukrainians even? How do we know that? Also, Ukraine is doing well, considering their situation.

bingohbangoh 5y ago
I think it’s also what Ukraine (broadly speaking) believes https://web.archive.org/web/20220225201409/https://www.5.ua/ukrayina/pryvyd-kyieva-pilot-mih-29-za-30-hodyn-zdobuv-6-povitrianykh-peremoh-nad-okupantom-269346.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220225201409/https://www.5.ua/...
fivefifty 5y ago
I'm fairly sure the Ghost of Kyiv came from a DCS (digital combat simulator) player originally and is actually based on this short DCS movie called 'The Ghost' which has very similar core details. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM8tXUz2q0c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM8tXUz2q0c Also some of the original footage uploaded that was purported to be of the Ghost of Kyiv was from DCS and I believe was even admitted as such by the uploader but like most rumours it has since taken a life of it's own and the exploits become increasingly more exaggerated over time.

gruez 5y ago

>If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. [5,6] >[5]: https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh... [6]: https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s... Who's "they" in this case? The ukranian people? The ukranian government? The sources you suggest seem to suggest the former rather than the latter. If that's the case, I'm not really sure how that's indicative of not "obviously winning".

tablespoon 5y ago

> I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. Because it appears to be doing far better than expected. That doesn't mean they'll win, but it at least allows for a sliver of hope. Personally, I'm guessing they'll eventually lose a lot of territory without direct Western military intervention, but maybe there will still be Ukrainian rump state left in the West after this, which will still be an achievement if not a "win." > If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0]... Ukraine might be doing as well as it is, because of things like that. That's not proof that it's doing well or poorly, but rather it's putting all its resources into an existential fight. > If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. You're being waaay too hard on them. They're ten days into the literal fight for their lives, and if some social media rumor gives them a bit more morale amidst the fog of war, who cares? > Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians? That's a bit too conspiratorial. That's a likely outcome, because even after "unprecedented" action Ukraine's allies are unwilling to do enough to clearly tip the scales, but I doubt there's some plan to "setup to be told [that]."

bingohbangoh 5y ago
If, broadly speaking, the western media says that Russia won a Pyrrhic victory will I be right in saying this was an intentional setup or will it be that I simply got lucky?
- vandreas2 5y ago
  Depends on the chances of pyrrhic victories in general. You score no points for predicting the most probable outcome. To reverse this, would you be right if you said that Russia won and Russian media agreed?

throwoutway 5y ago

Your (2) source does not match what you said. The Ukraine did no lie about the planes, the EU did: > The three nations were said to be forming the core of the EU effort—announced Monday by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell—as they are believed to be the only bloc members with flight-ready Russian-made aircraft. I’m hesitant to read your other sources now

fuj 5y ago

smegger001 5y ago

a major front in a modern war is digital propaganda. You have to keep your own peoples moral up and sap the will of the enemy, next you have to convince the rest of the world that your cause is just, winable and that they should suport you and demonize your enemy. Russia has failed on this front as their propaganda has been so transparently bad. they accused Ukraine of being run by Nazis, when their president and prime minister are both Jewish. they accused them of running death camps for Russian and all sort of other ridiculous slander so unbelievable the no one believes it. Ukraine has done all things considered pretty well outside of the examples you mentioned. As for arming civilians what do you expect a militarily inferior country to do when facing a stronger enemy and the rest of the world seems to afraid to send meaningful military aid. Its a battle for their survival. If I lived there I would be lining up to get gun too. the winning narrative is coming form them not being steam rolled like last time and them holding ground. Or from russian soldiers surrendering and going AWOL.