3 ms·

Hasn't really been a problem for other countries to avoid this problem, so I'm not sure how worried I ought to be. Like so many things, I'll worry about trends

Hasn't really been a problem for other countries to avoid this problem, so I'm not sure how worried I ought to be. Like so many things, I'll worry about trends when there is a trend.

cm2187 5y ago
It has been a problem. There is pretty much a duopoly, look at the difficulties you face if they disapprove your business or politics. More competition is long overdue. But we are testing modern finance by weaponising the financial system. The most problematic move I think has been freezing the central bank's reserve. It might achieve the short term gain of hurting Russia, but what about the long term impact on the trust in holding foreign currencies?
- cgio 5y ago
  I anticipate lots of gold moving physically over the next few months.
  - theshrike79 5y ago
    Pretty much all of Russia's liquid cash is in physical gold and bills, it'll be interesting to see how that's getting moved and used.
  - stubish 5y ago
    Unfortunately for Russia, if it does need to significantly dip into it's gold reserves it is likely to crash that market. I think China will get to negotiate a sweet discount to convert it to Yuan, if for no other reason than China seems to be the only place the gold can be laundered at the moment. I think I heard about $US 180bn worth?
    - selcuka 5y ago
      I believe it could be the other way around, i.e. other countries paying in gold for Russia's natural gas to bypass sanctions. Iran has been able to sell petrol using the same method despite of the embargo.
- mvc 5y ago
  If you wanna play at autocracy, don't hold foreign reserves in countries that value democracy. Simples
  - cm2187 5y ago
    As simple as the economic impact when China reaches this conclusion.
    - mvc 5y ago
      China is seeing that people who live in democratic countries have been given a timely reminder about how valuable that is. They will fight to protect that status. And over the medium to long term, they will reorient their economies so that they are not dependent on autocratic countries. Autocracy will lose long term.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      The Chinese aren't dumb enough to pretend their economy wouldn't collapse if they got the sort of embargo Russia's seeing. Their #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and #7 top trading partners are all US or US allies.
      - tsol 5y ago
        The United States would also face huge shortages and other problems if they couldn't trade with China. China also realizes that too-- it's a two way street. Globalization makes everyone vulnerable
        ceejayoz 5y ago
        Yes. It’s MAD, without the “everyone is on fire in 15 minutes” aspect. I’m inclined to see that as good.
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  Russia saw what happened to the Taliban and shrugged, they didn't realize the bell would toll for them too so soon
User23 5y ago
It’s hard to remember as long ago as last month when peaceful Canadian protestors had their assets seized without due process. We already live in a world where so-called first world nationals have this happen to them. It’s not about countries or individuals, it’s about power. And the rulers of the west have demonstrated the power to completely destroy someone financially by flipping a few bits as well as the willingness to use it at any scale. It used to be you had to send armed men to seize wealth, which doesn’t scale well. Now it’s all keystrokes which scale up to the total population just fine. But wait you say, those are bad people, and I’m a good person, I have nothing to fear! Good luck with that. Edit: It didn’t take long for a good person with nothing to fear to assure us of his status.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > It’s hard to remember as long ago as last month when peaceful Canadian protestors had their assets seized without due process. I have never had any expectation that when I am actively committing a crime, I can expect authorities to wait for the courts to decide if I should face any immediate sanctions or controls to stop my behavior. What would you rather have happen? Rubber bullets and tear gas? Or are you actually suggesting that it is okay to hold the public hostage until you get what you want?
  - Lascaille 5y ago
    >Or are you actually suggesting that it is okay to hold the public hostage until you get what you want? Ghandi and MLK have already given us the answer to that question. It's fine to peacefully protest until you achieve your objectives. Yes, people will try to malign you (saying that you're 'holding the public hostage') and insinuate things about you, but ignore them. It's okay. It's okay.
    - rootusrootus 5y ago
      So you're suggesting they were peacefully protesting, not blockading an entry point? To what extent can a protest go before the public has the right to force it to stop? Does blaring so many horns continuously so that residential apartments are subjected to 100dB indoors count as peaceful? How bad does it get before the police are allowed to take whatever steps necessary to stop it? And before you say anything about BLM, recall than many thousands of people were arrested last year during those protests, and there were plenty of rubber bullets, tear gas, and beatings. I'm always amazed at the extent people will go to absolve their own tribe from responsibility while accusing the other side of doing the same thing. Personally I abhorred the violence in downtown Portland last year and I'm glad they finally stopped. I think the police need to dial it back a little in many cases, but I want them to be able to put a lid on the ability of protesters to destroy the lives of innocent people. And I think January 6 was an insurrection, but of course it was. I find all of y'all kinda annoying :).
whiddershins 5y ago
Well, there was freezing the bank accounts in Canada. That was just a couple of weeks ago.
lixtra 5y ago
Another example was Operation Choke Point. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Choke_Point https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Choke_Point

Hasn't really been a problem for other countries to avoid this problem, so I'm not sure how worried I ought to be. Like so many things, I'll worry about trends when there is a trend.

cm2187 5y ago

It has been a problem. There is pretty much a duopoly, look at the difficulties you face if they disapprove your business or politics. More competition is long overdue. But we are testing modern finance by weaponising the financial system. The most problematic move I think has been freezing the central bank's reserve. It might achieve the short term gain of hurting Russia, but what about the long term impact on the trust in holding foreign currencies?

cgio 5y ago
I anticipate lots of gold moving physically over the next few months.
- theshrike79 5y ago
  Pretty much all of Russia's liquid cash is in physical gold and bills, it'll be interesting to see how that's getting moved and used.
- stubish 5y ago
  Unfortunately for Russia, if it does need to significantly dip into it's gold reserves it is likely to crash that market. I think China will get to negotiate a sweet discount to convert it to Yuan, if for no other reason than China seems to be the only place the gold can be laundered at the moment. I think I heard about $US 180bn worth?
  - selcuka 5y ago
    I believe it could be the other way around, i.e. other countries paying in gold for Russia's natural gas to bypass sanctions. Iran has been able to sell petrol using the same method despite of the embargo.
mvc 5y ago
If you wanna play at autocracy, don't hold foreign reserves in countries that value democracy. Simples
- cm2187 5y ago
  As simple as the economic impact when China reaches this conclusion.
  - mvc 5y ago
    China is seeing that people who live in democratic countries have been given a timely reminder about how valuable that is. They will fight to protect that status. And over the medium to long term, they will reorient their economies so that they are not dependent on autocratic countries. Autocracy will lose long term.
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    The Chinese aren't dumb enough to pretend their economy wouldn't collapse if they got the sort of embargo Russia's seeing. Their #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, and #7 top trading partners are all US or US allies.
    - tsol 5y ago
      The United States would also face huge shortages and other problems if they couldn't trade with China. China also realizes that too-- it's a two way street. Globalization makes everyone vulnerable
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        Yes. It’s MAD, without the “everyone is on fire in 15 minutes” aspect. I’m inclined to see that as good.
selimthegrim 5y ago
Russia saw what happened to the Taliban and shrugged, they didn't realize the bell would toll for them too so soon

User23 5y ago

It’s hard to remember as long ago as last month when peaceful Canadian protestors had their assets seized without due process. We already live in a world where so-called first world nationals have this happen to them. It’s not about countries or individuals, it’s about power. And the rulers of the west have demonstrated the power to completely destroy someone financially by flipping a few bits as well as the willingness to use it at any scale. It used to be you had to send armed men to seize wealth, which doesn’t scale well. Now it’s all keystrokes which scale up to the total population just fine. But wait you say, those are bad people, and I’m a good person, I have nothing to fear! Good luck with that. Edit: It didn’t take long for a good person with nothing to fear to assure us of his status.

rootusrootus 5y ago
> It’s hard to remember as long ago as last month when peaceful Canadian protestors had their assets seized without due process. I have never had any expectation that when I am actively committing a crime, I can expect authorities to wait for the courts to decide if I should face any immediate sanctions or controls to stop my behavior. What would you rather have happen? Rubber bullets and tear gas? Or are you actually suggesting that it is okay to hold the public hostage until you get what you want?
- Lascaille 5y ago
  >Or are you actually suggesting that it is okay to hold the public hostage until you get what you want? Ghandi and MLK have already given us the answer to that question. It's fine to peacefully protest until you achieve your objectives. Yes, people will try to malign you (saying that you're 'holding the public hostage') and insinuate things about you, but ignore them. It's okay. It's okay.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    So you're suggesting they were peacefully protesting, not blockading an entry point? To what extent can a protest go before the public has the right to force it to stop? Does blaring so many horns continuously so that residential apartments are subjected to 100dB indoors count as peaceful? How bad does it get before the police are allowed to take whatever steps necessary to stop it? And before you say anything about BLM, recall than many thousands of people were arrested last year during those protests, and there were plenty of rubber bullets, tear gas, and beatings. I'm always amazed at the extent people will go to absolve their own tribe from responsibility while accusing the other side of doing the same thing. Personally I abhorred the violence in downtown Portland last year and I'm glad they finally stopped. I think the police need to dial it back a little in many cases, but I want them to be able to put a lid on the ability of protesters to destroy the lives of innocent people. And I think January 6 was an insurrection, but of course it was. I find all of y'all kinda annoying :).

whiddershins 5y ago

Well, there was freezing the bank accounts in Canada. That was just a couple of weeks ago.

lixtra 5y ago

Another example was Operation Choke Point. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Choke_Point https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Choke_Point