Meh, I'm getting very tired of these types of articles. Why is it so hard to simply admit that it's really hard if not impossible to predict complex things like

Meh, I'm getting very tired of these types of articles. Why is it so hard to simply admit that it's really hard if not impossible to predict complex things like this? The types of people that write these articles also believed at one time: - China becoming capitalist would cause it to become a liberal democracy - Globalization would be amazing for everyone everywhere - The Afghan army would be able to stand up to the Taliban - Russia would not invade the Ukraine, but on the off chance they did, they'd roll right over the country in no time at all. The fact is when it comes to this kind of stuff, we just don't know and we probably never will. That's just the nature of complexity. You miss one minor detail or some tiny assumption or some "unknown unknown" is off and the whole intellectual scaffolding comes down.