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Much of these analyses are useless unless you put domestic politics into calculation. If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the

Much of these analyses are useless unless you put domestic politics into calculation. If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. One crucial part of Xi's ruling is that Xi has not appointed his successor yet. Xi wants to stay. Does invading Taiwan help or hurt him to stay longer? That's his calculation.

ctvo 5y ago
> If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. Citation? Which part of the communist party does NOT want Taiwan back if it could get it without massive geopolitical consequences?
- temp8964 5y ago
  Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.
  - posnet 5y ago
    China's anti-corruption campaigns have nothing to do with corruption and are just populist pretext for removing political enemies.
    - pstrateman 5y ago
      I think you're agreeing with the parent.
    - xwz7611 5y ago
      Not true. Now those that were taken down are too low in their position, so can not be Xi' political enemy. Why do they want to be Xi's enemy?
  - ctvo 5y ago
    Your original point that the West's influence, through geopolitics, mattered very little, and internal party power struggles determined Taiwan's fate is inaccurate. It doesn't matter if Xi is directly aware of geopolitics or if its impact, through proxies, shape his decision, it's still geopolitical consequences that largely protects Taiwan. Rivals are partially against an invasion because it harms them financially, or harms their family's interests. This is amplified by their desire to not give Xi a victory, but if the deterrent didn't exist, surely there could be no plausible push back.

ctvo 5y ago

> If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. Citation? Which part of the communist party does NOT want Taiwan back if it could get it without massive geopolitical consequences?

temp8964 5y ago
Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.
- posnet 5y ago
  China's anti-corruption campaigns have nothing to do with corruption and are just populist pretext for removing political enemies.
  - pstrateman 5y ago
    I think you're agreeing with the parent.
  - xwz7611 5y ago
    Not true. Now those that were taken down are too low in their position, so can not be Xi' political enemy. Why do they want to be Xi's enemy?
- ctvo 5y ago
  Your original point that the West's influence, through geopolitics, mattered very little, and internal party power struggles determined Taiwan's fate is inaccurate. It doesn't matter if Xi is directly aware of geopolitics or if its impact, through proxies, shape his decision, it's still geopolitical consequences that largely protects Taiwan. Rivals are partially against an invasion because it harms them financially, or harms their family's interests. This is amplified by their desire to not give Xi a victory, but if the deterrent didn't exist, surely there could be no plausible push back.