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If it's this easy, go start a hedge fund. You are literally leaving billions of dollars on the table by not. An average first year finance student can do a "br

If it's this easy, go start a hedge fund. You are literally leaving billions of dollars on the table by not. An average first year finance student can do a "brief DCF analysis". They put garbage in for the cashflows and get garbage out for the valuation - and then write it up with high precision.

adenozine 5y ago
Not the person you're replying to, but I just wanted to point out: andrewmcwatters.com boasts a $1400/day rate. That's not billions, but is still quite a respectable rate for their services. I assume they're well respected and trusted by their clients. Hoever, in your comment here, you've mistaken some napkin math for a hard and fast assertion on their part and I think it's a little unfair. There's far more to a company's existence than DCF, all the poster did was point that out. It's obviously not that easy to run a hedge fund, but that's no excuse for sloppy facts here, or anywhere else for that matter.
- matthewaveryusa 5y ago
  As a counter-point AMD as a datacenter chip provider grew 100% last year and investors like myself view it as a catalyst of growth that begets more growth. More simply put: they are getting their foot in lots of doors. it’s stupendously difficult to valuate that just looking at the financials. AMDs renewed brand recognition also allows it to trade at better multiples
- CyberDildonics 5y ago
  They can make more than that if they can predict the future, but there's a big difference between predicting the future and selling the future.
- danielmarkbruce 5y ago
  It's not the napkin math which is the issue - it's stating it as though future earnings are an obviously known, agreed upon quantity. Napkin math of "I think they can sell x units at y margin with z fixed costs because of a, b and c, and I think that will grow at g because of whatever and my back of the envelope says that is worth $" would be great. Ie, real insight. Low precision, high accuracy insight with napkin math would have been wonderful.
devoutsalsa 5y ago
It’s a basic analysis for a value investor. There are other forms of analysis. Here’s an example of AMD vs, Intel from 5 months ago: https://youtu.be/zYPSiYNsrtE https://youtu.be/zYPSiYNsrtE

adenozine 5y ago

Not the person you're replying to, but I just wanted to point out: andrewmcwatters.com boasts a $1400/day rate. That's not billions, but is still quite a respectable rate for their services. I assume they're well respected and trusted by their clients. Hoever, in your comment here, you've mistaken some napkin math for a hard and fast assertion on their part and I think it's a little unfair. There's far more to a company's existence than DCF, all the poster did was point that out. It's obviously not that easy to run a hedge fund, but that's no excuse for sloppy facts here, or anywhere else for that matter.

matthewaveryusa 5y ago
As a counter-point AMD as a datacenter chip provider grew 100% last year and investors like myself view it as a catalyst of growth that begets more growth. More simply put: they are getting their foot in lots of doors. it’s stupendously difficult to valuate that just looking at the financials. AMDs renewed brand recognition also allows it to trade at better multiples
CyberDildonics 5y ago
They can make more than that if they can predict the future, but there's a big difference between predicting the future and selling the future.
danielmarkbruce 5y ago
It's not the napkin math which is the issue - it's stating it as though future earnings are an obviously known, agreed upon quantity. Napkin math of "I think they can sell x units at y margin with z fixed costs because of a, b and c, and I think that will grow at g because of whatever and my back of the envelope says that is worth $" would be great. Ie, real insight. Low precision, high accuracy insight with napkin math would have been wonderful.

devoutsalsa 5y ago

It’s a basic analysis for a value investor. There are other forms of analysis. Here’s an example of AMD vs, Intel from 5 months ago: https://youtu.be/zYPSiYNsrtE https://youtu.be/zYPSiYNsrtE