4 ms·

Most sanctions have inverse effect of strengthening the authoritharian government. Maybe if you have free press and strong oposition you can use sanctions to tu

Most sanctions have inverse effect of strengthening the authoritharian government. Maybe if you have free press and strong oposition you can use sanctions to turn population against governemnt. However, my experience of suffering under combination of sanctions and authorian government is that dictatorship gets stronger in these cases. I would even support sanctions in the 90-ties against Serbia if they increased our chances of overthrowing Milosevic. But they didn’t, quite the oposite. He only went after NATO bombing and defacto loosing all wars Serbia participated in. It looks to me sanctions are implemented as a punishment, as a feel good move, as “we have to do something”. What’s the realistic end goal of blocking internet access, or software, or Visa/MC/Apple pay to Russia? Does it help a goal of overthrowing Putin, or strengthening his case? “We have to do something” is not a good reason if there are no positive effects, but there are negative ones.

politician 5y ago
A weak, underfed population whose military cannot keep its vehicles in working order isn’t going to be invading its neighbors with any degree of success.
- JasonFruit 5y ago
  That sounds humanitarian...
  - isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y ago
    I'd rather have Russians starved to death than other countries invaded by them.
  - hackerfromthefu 5y ago
    On balance, considering the broader picture, I would also agree it's humanitarian. I suppose you were being sarcastic, but put away your snide and come up with actual better suggestions!
- politician 5y ago
  Addendum: Look at Russia's conventional military on display in this conflict. Reliant on undertrained conscripts, poor discipline, poor planning. If NATO imposes a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine, Putin has no where to turn except to his nuclear deterrence forces. He has no dry powder except for his estimated 6000 nuclear weapons. "Backed into a corner" is a phrase that is tossed around too easily these days. NATO does not want to force him into that corner with a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine. Brutal, backbreaking sanctions and the loss of support of a brainwashed public is the current alternative. I am certain that there are even harsher options in the pipeline. For example, cutting off oil and gas purchases, and sacrificing Western economies in an era of record high inflation. In my opinion, NATO will gladly make that trade to keep Putin from abandoning MAD.
- pvaldes 5y ago
  I wouldn't discard part bad management, part deliberate passive-aggressive boycott against the war by military people. You don't want to shoot your relatives in another country and you are afraid to meet the same fate as your general killed from a long distance because crazy politician in power had a tantrum?. The solution is simple: Some pieces in your tank broke, you turn in the wrong direction and get stuck in a marsh, or gasoline vanish mysteriously overnight and you are stuck out of the war until a replacement arrives with the spare parts. This can lasts for several weeks or months if you must buy it in another countries and nobody is selling you. Or can need to fill a lot of bureaucracy to just take if from another tank and send it to the front (and then you have 2 tanks out of service instead one). When you finally arrive to the fight there is a lot less of enemies to deal with. With the advantage that you didn't deserted and don't fear retaliation. You can blame the tank maker or any other that is lower in the food chain. It was not your fault.
  - politician 5y ago
    Agreed. It would be ideal if the Russian military refused to escalate further.

politician 5y ago

A weak, underfed population whose military cannot keep its vehicles in working order isn’t going to be invading its neighbors with any degree of success.

JasonFruit 5y ago
That sounds humanitarian...
- isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y ago
  I'd rather have Russians starved to death than other countries invaded by them.
- hackerfromthefu 5y ago
  On balance, considering the broader picture, I would also agree it's humanitarian. I suppose you were being sarcastic, but put away your snide and come up with actual better suggestions!
politician 5y ago
Addendum: Look at Russia's conventional military on display in this conflict. Reliant on undertrained conscripts, poor discipline, poor planning. If NATO imposes a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine, Putin has no where to turn except to his nuclear deterrence forces. He has no dry powder except for his estimated 6000 nuclear weapons. "Backed into a corner" is a phrase that is tossed around too easily these days. NATO does not want to force him into that corner with a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine. Brutal, backbreaking sanctions and the loss of support of a brainwashed public is the current alternative. I am certain that there are even harsher options in the pipeline. For example, cutting off oil and gas purchases, and sacrificing Western economies in an era of record high inflation. In my opinion, NATO will gladly make that trade to keep Putin from abandoning MAD.
pvaldes 5y ago
I wouldn't discard part bad management, part deliberate passive-aggressive boycott against the war by military people. You don't want to shoot your relatives in another country and you are afraid to meet the same fate as your general killed from a long distance because crazy politician in power had a tantrum?. The solution is simple: Some pieces in your tank broke, you turn in the wrong direction and get stuck in a marsh, or gasoline vanish mysteriously overnight and you are stuck out of the war until a replacement arrives with the spare parts. This can lasts for several weeks or months if you must buy it in another countries and nobody is selling you. Or can need to fill a lot of bureaucracy to just take if from another tank and send it to the front (and then you have 2 tanks out of service instead one). When you finally arrive to the fight there is a lot less of enemies to deal with. With the advantage that you didn't deserted and don't fear retaliation. You can blame the tank maker or any other that is lower in the food chain. It was not your fault.
- politician 5y ago
  Agreed. It would be ideal if the Russian military refused to escalate further.