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>We don't need another war, thanks. Some people think it's the best. At the moment the strongest proponents of this line of thought sit in the Kreml. It's just
by Borrible 5y ago
>We don't need another war, thanks.
Some people think it's the best.
At the moment the strongest proponents of this line of thought sit in the Kreml.
It's just a question of who it's best for.
And they don't care if you want it or not.
The Republika Srpska cultivates close ties to their Russian brother, nurtures strong ethnic/nationalist ambitions and is a possible attack vector for Russian PsyOps to stirr things up.
Don't you think a possible Civil War or some such in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina would come in handy?
For Russia and the Republika Srpska?
Oh, and please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking for an exit.
By, the way that Balkan thing is much older.
In 1888 Bismarck is quoted as saying "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."
He was right.
- DeWilde 5y agoHighly unlikely that they can stir up anything that far away. Another fact working against this theory is that B&H has EUFOR and NATO bases and is surrounded by mostly NATO members. I think the recent situation around Ukraine actually diminishes the possibility of turmoil in B&H because Western powers are now more eager to use the Office of the High Representative to remove from power anyone who works against peace in B&H.
- Borrible 5y agoThe Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely? https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/CHRG-115shrg28945.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C... https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info... https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping-block-potential-violence-steps-prevent/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-state-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnian-serbs-are-playing-with-fire-a-f9daaf05-9c06-42ef-82ea-8a3826bf45bd https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat... https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukraine-the-Balkans-hold-their-breath-216258 https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra... https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group-to-hold-pro-russia-rally/ https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group... https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-anti-terrorism-strategy-in-serbia/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...
- DeWilde 5y agoI think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling. The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
- Borrible 5y agoYou are probably right. Considering the piss poor performance of the Russian military, supporting the Russian Blood Brothers on the front line is probably a sacred duty for nationalistic Serbian extremists. Apparently, the Russians even need external experts for their war crimes, as they recruit war-experienced Syrians as mercenaries. I assume that the Serbian experts in this field will work for Mother Russia for free. This will probably relieve B&H from that pest, temporarily. Until those fighters return. Of course, If they do. Wouldn't mind to see them die there.