It's a number of factors coming together. The market over 2021 was very tight, with China importing a huge amount of wheat, some drought/weather issues, and pro

It's a number of factors coming together. The market over 2021 was very tight, with China importing a huge amount of wheat, some drought/weather issues, and probably more. Coming into this year, nitrogen fertilizer, potash and other agriculture inputs are very expensive, which partly traces back to energy costs (natural gas) and sanctions (Belarus/Russia). Adding the Ukraine war to this puts a huge percent of global exports at risk, with at least some people naming it as the biggest supply shock in a lifetime: https://twitter.com/ScottIrwinUI/status/1499137998386085889 https://twitter.com/ScottIrwinUI/status/1499137998386085889 It's not just the supply shock, but everyone expecting rough conditions this year before the war started. Primed with those conditions and a commodity where not having any means millions/billions of people starve, it's easy to see how supply concerns can set off some very sharp movements. Energy and food inflation like this has a history of setting off events like the Arab Spring; it's a very inelastic market and governments don't have the option of not paying. I'm no commodities expert though. Here's an article on effects in Egypt: https://mei.edu/publications/russia-ukraine-war-has-turned-egypts-food-crisis-existential-threat-economy https://mei.edu/publications/russia-ukraine-war-has-turned-e...