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https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/W00/advanced-chart https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/W00/advanced-... Filter to 'All' Those tops b

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/W00/advanced-chart https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/W00/advanced-... Filter to 'All' Those tops between 2010 and 2013 is the 'Arab Spring'. Now you know what is coming. I mentioned that eight days ago, it was a sure thing ten days ago. The moment they crossed the border. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30457490&goto=item%3Fid%3D30457490%2330458314#30458314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30457490&goto=item%3Fid... Oh, and it was talked about for months. It's that Ukraine Breadbasket thing. We Germans had a tour back then, just for that. It's not widely known, but we sometimes even stole the pure soil literally, Chernozem. History and geostrategics, quite interesting. Uh, by the way, the Ukrainians had a land reform last year. As a primer: https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/who-really-benefits-creation-land-market-ukraine https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/who-really-benefits-cr... ---------------------------------------------------------- And now to something completely different, the Serbians and the Balkan...

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beebeepka 5y ago
What about the Balkans? We don't need another war, thanks. I don't know for sure who is funding all these "nationalistic" organisations around these parts but I do know nationalism is more often than not used as a tool to divide people, not unite them. These people seem to "care" and "love" their countries to the extent of beating and harassing brown people. Sorry, got carried away
- baq 5y ago
  There are reports something's brewing in Serbia/Kosovo, more than usual. Same in Moldova/Transnistria - the latter in particular could provide a western angle of attack on Ukraine.
- Borrible 5y ago
  >We don't need another war, thanks. Some people think it's the best. At the moment the strongest proponents of this line of thought sit in the Kreml. It's just a question of who it's best for. And they don't care if you want it or not. The Republika Srpska cultivates close ties to their Russian brother, nurtures strong ethnic/nationalist ambitions and is a possible attack vector for Russian PsyOps to stirr things up. Don't you think a possible Civil War or some such in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina would come in handy? For Russia and the Republika Srpska? Oh, and please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking for an exit. By, the way that Balkan thing is much older. In 1888 Bismarck is quoted as saying "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans." He was right.
  - DeWilde 5y ago
    Highly unlikely that they can stir up anything that far away. Another fact working against this theory is that B&H has EUFOR and NATO bases and is surrounded by mostly NATO members. I think the recent situation around Ukraine actually diminishes the possibility of turmoil in B&H because Western powers are now more eager to use the Office of the High Representative to remove from power anyone who works against peace in B&H.
    - Borrible 5y ago
      The Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely? https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/CHRG-115shrg28945.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C... https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info... https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping-block-potential-violence-steps-prevent/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-state-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnian-serbs-are-playing-with-fire-a-f9daaf05-9c06-42ef-82ea-8a3826bf45bd https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat... https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukraine-the-Balkans-hold-their-breath-216258 https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra... https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group-to-hold-pro-russia-rally/ https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group... https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-anti-terrorism-strategy-in-serbia/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...
      - DeWilde 5y ago
        I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling. The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
- agumonkey 5y ago
  I don't know how solid this piece (or the team behind it) is https://bywire.news/articles/millions-of-russian-roubles-funded-far-right-discord-in-europe https://bywire.news/articles/millions-of-russian-roubles-fun... But it hints at that there is potential for groups and/or nations (I assume Russia wouldn't be the only one) to mess up peoples minds. Not long ago a journalist ended up in the "internet communication team" of a french presidential candidate (Zemmour) and saw how much shitty tricks they're trying to influence people (editing wikipedia, flooding articles online to give a better image)
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beebeepka 5y ago

What about the Balkans? We don't need another war, thanks. I don't know for sure who is funding all these "nationalistic" organisations around these parts but I do know nationalism is more often than not used as a tool to divide people, not unite them. These people seem to "care" and "love" their countries to the extent of beating and harassing brown people. Sorry, got carried away

baq 5y ago
There are reports something's brewing in Serbia/Kosovo, more than usual. Same in Moldova/Transnistria - the latter in particular could provide a western angle of attack on Ukraine.
Borrible 5y ago
>We don't need another war, thanks. Some people think it's the best. At the moment the strongest proponents of this line of thought sit in the Kreml. It's just a question of who it's best for. And they don't care if you want it or not. The Republika Srpska cultivates close ties to their Russian brother, nurtures strong ethnic/nationalist ambitions and is a possible attack vector for Russian PsyOps to stirr things up. Don't you think a possible Civil War or some such in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina would come in handy? For Russia and the Republika Srpska? Oh, and please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking for an exit. By, the way that Balkan thing is much older. In 1888 Bismarck is quoted as saying "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans." He was right.
- DeWilde 5y ago
  Highly unlikely that they can stir up anything that far away. Another fact working against this theory is that B&H has EUFOR and NATO bases and is surrounded by mostly NATO members. I think the recent situation around Ukraine actually diminishes the possibility of turmoil in B&H because Western powers are now more eager to use the Office of the High Representative to remove from power anyone who works against peace in B&H.
  - Borrible 5y ago
    The Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely? https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/CHRG-115shrg28945.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C... https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info_tab_contents https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info... https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping-block-potential-violence-steps-prevent/ https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-state-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnian-serbs-are-playing-with-fire-a-f9daaf05-9c06-42ef-82ea-8a3826bf45bd https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat... https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukraine-the-Balkans-hold-their-breath-216258 https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra... https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group-to-hold-pro-russia-rally/ https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group... https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-anti-terrorism-strategy-in-serbia/ https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...
    - DeWilde 5y ago
      I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling. The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
agumonkey 5y ago
I don't know how solid this piece (or the team behind it) is https://bywire.news/articles/millions-of-russian-roubles-funded-far-right-discord-in-europe https://bywire.news/articles/millions-of-russian-roubles-fun... But it hints at that there is potential for groups and/or nations (I assume Russia wouldn't be the only one) to mess up peoples minds. Not long ago a journalist ended up in the "internet communication team" of a french presidential candidate (Zemmour) and saw how much shitty tricks they're trying to influence people (editing wikipedia, flooding articles online to give a better image)

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