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The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War

31 points by gotmedium 5y ago

webmaven 5y ago
Looks like this event is promoting a recent book by the same name: https://g.co/kgs/PYnp5Q https://g.co/kgs/PYnp5Q
samename 5y ago
404. Did the page ever exist?
webmaven 5y ago
Correct URL for the event: https://history.columbia.edu/events/the-economic-weapon-the-rise-of-sanctions-as-a-tool-of-modern-war-victoria-de-grazia-adam-tooze/ https://history.columbia.edu/events/the-economic-weapon-the-...
- dang 5y ago
  Thanks! Changed from https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/showEventMore.rdo;jsessionid=MaP4go53XbYRhr3HCFwYc_dL7FH4yJ1txeaNCEWn.calprdapp06 https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/showEventMore.rdo;jses.... (Event announcements like this aren't on topic for HN because they aren't intrinsically interesting. An article or transcript or recording of the event might well be.)
it_does_follow 5y ago
I'm presuming the link is supposed to be about this book https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259360/economic-weapon https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259360/economic-weapo... There's a review with the same title as this post here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2021-12-14/economic-weapon-rise-sanctions-tool-modern-war https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2021-1... Which sums up the topic with: > In an original and persuasive analysis, Mulder shows how isolating aggressors from global commerce and finance was seen as an alternative to war that worked precisely because of the pain it imposed on the target society. From the very beginning, it was civilians who suffered the most. Nevertheless, the League of Nations embraced sanctions and established an elaborate legal and bureaucratic apparatus to enforce them. Mulder argues that instead of keeping the peace, this form of economic warfare aggravated the tensions of the 1930s, encouraging austerity and autarky and restraining smaller states but backfiring against the larger authoritarian ones, such as Italy. I think this is an interesting point to bring up, because, especially in the West, we hold a believe that "economic" violence is not as bad as "physical" violence. It's well worth at least questioning this assumption.
- veganhouseDJ 5y ago
  No one listened to arguably the greatest economist of all time in 1919 when Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. No one is going to listen now. Not to mention the die has been cast already.
- thriftwy 5y ago
  In many ways, affected countries see sanctions not as a punishment or attack but as insult-by-action. The actual economic effect may usually be countered but the humiliation remains. So it may be efficient in scaring small, dependent nations but it won't lead to victories against large and proud ones. And I mean the latter more in the criminal sentiment of "it's all about respect".
- rocqua 5y ago
  I think that, in the world of nuclear powers, it is trivial to see that physical violence at war scales between nuclear powers is essentially infinitely bad. Famine among millions of people, and general economic depression has a massive human toll. But it doesn't compare to full on nuclear war, followed by nuclear winter and Global radiation levels from fallout. So it seems obvious to me that economic violence is the only for of violence the west can bring to bear against Russia. There is a discussion to be had on the matter of whether it should be brought to bear. Punishing the people for the actions of the elite and all that. Perhaps also a 'what does this system lead to in peace time' question, but that seems to argue 'economic sanctions are a tragedy of the commons', which means it is hard to address. At least the solution 'we just won't sanction' does not actually resolve the tragedy of the commons.
  - renlo 5y ago
    the question is whether economic sanctions could lead to "full on nuclear war"
    - rocqua 5y ago
      I had not considered that. It seems like "dude has nukes and feels backed into a wall" is just really shite. You either give him what he wants, or you risk nuclear war.
sumthinprofound 5y ago
started listening to the audiobook this morning.
anikan_vader 5y ago
Surely this will be an interesting event, but the title alone seems to compare economic sanctions with war, unfairly in my opinion. From a schoolyard perspective, economic sanctions are like giving a peer the silent treatment. It hurts you both, but it's your right not to interact with someone if you find them sufficiently unpleasant. War is like committing homicide against that peer during recess. In other words, it's really fucking bad.
- thallium205 5y ago
  No. Sanctions are weapons of mass destruction. They starve and kill the poorest in a nation. It's akin to carpet bombing a town without explosions. This is not hyperbole. Look to history at the destruction of sanctions.
  - vaidhy 5y ago
    I have no idea why this is being down-voted. This is the truth. People in western europe have no idea what it means to live under scarcity. Take Sri Lanka for e.g. - not even under sanction, but lack foreign reserves. Long blackouts, disruption of normal life since petrol (gasoline) is not always available. Eventual food shortages because fertilizer needs to be imported. Now think of another country under sanctions - even hope of better future is being crushed.
    - anonporridge 5y ago
      It's getting downvoted because westerners have been whipped up into a bloodlust frenzy towards Russia. Just like the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, those who speak against the destruction will be derided as unpatriotic, freedom hating traitors.
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    100%. Sanctions are a WMD that simply have a nice level of deniability. We don't have to see the mass destruction and pain they cause, because it's not a direct explosion like a bomb, but the ultimate effect is much the same like you say.
Terry_Roll 5y ago
In a joined up world, sanctions are the new non explosive weapons. Less project fear (nukes/missiles/violence), more stand on the naughty step and no Amazon or Netflix for a month. Russia is interesting though, because with so much land, arguably they can be self sufficient, which means only intelligence & innovation holds them back if they want to turn inwards like China did, which the Brits exploited commercially through Hong Kong. Russia have already demonstrated intelligence and innovation during the cold war with sputnik, they also have tried and tested rocket technology which will boost the French Ariana rockets but we know that genius individuals are distributed around the planet although the health of the mother, diet during pregnancy & during the first 8years will go along way to helping a genius. But the West has pollution which is lowering IQ levels, just like Covid is lowering IQ levels as seen with the "brain fog", so I wouldnt write them off if they followed the science and wanted to go isolationist. Even North Korea has shown it can still survive albeit at a slower pace to the rest of the world, but nothing like the Nazi war effort, which goes to show how idea's can motivate groups of people.
- laurent92 5y ago
  Did you say the West had pollution? Isn’t it China? Do you say USA and Europe have higher pollution?
  - Terry_Roll 5y ago
    Cleaning products are considered pollution by NASA which is why they came up with a list of plants to clean the air in their hypothetical moonbase. You also have energy efficient homes which dont do the air exchange as much allowing for a build up of pollutants in the home and office but not all of them get considered pollutants. And just because you cant see the particulates like soot, doesnt mean the air is cleaner, its just different chemicals that still have a negative effect on the body. Look into Dieselgate to find out about those.
    - laurent92 5y ago
      I agree, but I’m surprised that GP said that people in the West have lower IQ because pollution is vastly superior. If proven, it would help me choose a country to emigrate, but I recall dodgy plastics in Indonesia and smog in China, and I’m quite sure the less-tertiary countries have more pollutants.
pintxo 5y ago
I wondered for a while, is there any sensible analysis on the effectiveness of economic sanctions?
- thr0wawayf00 5y ago
  Here is one I saw wrt the Russia sanctions specifically that seems to be well-sourced and makes sense whilst being pretty terrifying for the Russian people[0]. TLDR; Russians are about to face mass shortages of basic goods at the same time their markets are crashing. This is going to cause major problems when people try to buy things like food and seed to grow more food. There's already a brain drain hitting Russia as these sanctions take effect, so the government may be forced to close the borders as well. 0: https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/03/04/world-war-of-economic-attrition/ https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/03/04/world-war-of-economic-...
xdennis 5y ago
Not buying stuff is war, but invading a country is a special military operation. We are living in crazy times, but as the Ukrainian ambassador said, there's no purgatory for these people, they go straight to hell.
- thr0wawayf00 5y ago
  > Not buying stuff is war Removing the tools of trade to specifically punish a country is akin to war, I agree with the sentiment. A lot of innocent people are going to starve and die because of this decision, regardless of whether or not bombs are dropped. They don't have any other options and their already fragile and corrupt markets are crashing.
jansen555 5y ago
I expect Russia to boost assasination squads. Most companies have no access to secret service. Not only they are sitting ducks, their families too. All I can say is see mysterious and over the top deaths of public companies c-level tier. As you can see Putin shelling civilians building. But what Ukrainian news source didn't tell you is that those building have civilians taking up arms. Once you do that it is a fair gain to bomb you. American routinely did that. Ever heard of Obama bombing hospitals? Killing children? Killing goat herders that "look" like OBL? These civilians upgraded themselves to enemy combatant status. Yes, rise of sanctions as modern war tool. But so is economic civilians assasinations too.

31 points by gotmedium 5y ago

webmaven 5y ago

Looks like this event is promoting a recent book by the same name: https://g.co/kgs/PYnp5Q https://g.co/kgs/PYnp5Q

samename 5y ago

404. Did the page ever exist?

webmaven 5y ago

Correct URL for the event: https://history.columbia.edu/events/the-economic-weapon-the-rise-of-sanctions-as-a-tool-of-modern-war-victoria-de-grazia-adam-tooze/ https://history.columbia.edu/events/the-economic-weapon-the-...

dang 5y ago
Thanks! Changed from https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/showEventMore.rdo;jsessionid=MaP4go53XbYRhr3HCFwYc_dL7FH4yJ1txeaNCEWn.calprdapp06 https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/showEventMore.rdo;jses.... (Event announcements like this aren't on topic for HN because they aren't intrinsically interesting. An article or transcript or recording of the event might well be.)

it_does_follow 5y ago

I'm presuming the link is supposed to be about this book https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259360/economic-weapon https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259360/economic-weapo... There's a review with the same title as this post here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2021-12-14/economic-weapon-rise-sanctions-tool-modern-war https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2021-1... Which sums up the topic with: > In an original and persuasive analysis, Mulder shows how isolating aggressors from global commerce and finance was seen as an alternative to war that worked precisely because of the pain it imposed on the target society. From the very beginning, it was civilians who suffered the most. Nevertheless, the League of Nations embraced sanctions and established an elaborate legal and bureaucratic apparatus to enforce them. Mulder argues that instead of keeping the peace, this form of economic warfare aggravated the tensions of the 1930s, encouraging austerity and autarky and restraining smaller states but backfiring against the larger authoritarian ones, such as Italy. I think this is an interesting point to bring up, because, especially in the West, we hold a believe that "economic" violence is not as bad as "physical" violence. It's well worth at least questioning this assumption.

veganhouseDJ 5y ago
No one listened to arguably the greatest economist of all time in 1919 when Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. No one is going to listen now. Not to mention the die has been cast already.
thriftwy 5y ago
In many ways, affected countries see sanctions not as a punishment or attack but as insult-by-action. The actual economic effect may usually be countered but the humiliation remains. So it may be efficient in scaring small, dependent nations but it won't lead to victories against large and proud ones. And I mean the latter more in the criminal sentiment of "it's all about respect".
rocqua 5y ago
I think that, in the world of nuclear powers, it is trivial to see that physical violence at war scales between nuclear powers is essentially infinitely bad. Famine among millions of people, and general economic depression has a massive human toll. But it doesn't compare to full on nuclear war, followed by nuclear winter and Global radiation levels from fallout. So it seems obvious to me that economic violence is the only for of violence the west can bring to bear against Russia. There is a discussion to be had on the matter of whether it should be brought to bear. Punishing the people for the actions of the elite and all that. Perhaps also a 'what does this system lead to in peace time' question, but that seems to argue 'economic sanctions are a tragedy of the commons', which means it is hard to address. At least the solution 'we just won't sanction' does not actually resolve the tragedy of the commons.
- renlo 5y ago
  the question is whether economic sanctions could lead to "full on nuclear war"
  - rocqua 5y ago
    I had not considered that. It seems like "dude has nukes and feels backed into a wall" is just really shite. You either give him what he wants, or you risk nuclear war.

sumthinprofound 5y ago

started listening to the audiobook this morning.

anikan_vader 5y ago

Surely this will be an interesting event, but the title alone seems to compare economic sanctions with war, unfairly in my opinion. From a schoolyard perspective, economic sanctions are like giving a peer the silent treatment. It hurts you both, but it's your right not to interact with someone if you find them sufficiently unpleasant. War is like committing homicide against that peer during recess. In other words, it's really fucking bad.

thallium205 5y ago
No. Sanctions are weapons of mass destruction. They starve and kill the poorest in a nation. It's akin to carpet bombing a town without explosions. This is not hyperbole. Look to history at the destruction of sanctions.
- vaidhy 5y ago
  I have no idea why this is being down-voted. This is the truth. People in western europe have no idea what it means to live under scarcity. Take Sri Lanka for e.g. - not even under sanction, but lack foreign reserves. Long blackouts, disruption of normal life since petrol (gasoline) is not always available. Eventual food shortages because fertilizer needs to be imported. Now think of another country under sanctions - even hope of better future is being crushed.
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    It's getting downvoted because westerners have been whipped up into a bloodlust frenzy towards Russia. Just like the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, those who speak against the destruction will be derided as unpatriotic, freedom hating traitors.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  100%. Sanctions are a WMD that simply have a nice level of deniability. We don't have to see the mass destruction and pain they cause, because it's not a direct explosion like a bomb, but the ultimate effect is much the same like you say.

Terry_Roll 5y ago

In a joined up world, sanctions are the new non explosive weapons. Less project fear (nukes/missiles/violence), more stand on the naughty step and no Amazon or Netflix for a month. Russia is interesting though, because with so much land, arguably they can be self sufficient, which means only intelligence & innovation holds them back if they want to turn inwards like China did, which the Brits exploited commercially through Hong Kong. Russia have already demonstrated intelligence and innovation during the cold war with sputnik, they also have tried and tested rocket technology which will boost the French Ariana rockets but we know that genius individuals are distributed around the planet although the health of the mother, diet during pregnancy & during the first 8years will go along way to helping a genius. But the West has pollution which is lowering IQ levels, just like Covid is lowering IQ levels as seen with the "brain fog", so I wouldnt write them off if they followed the science and wanted to go isolationist. Even North Korea has shown it can still survive albeit at a slower pace to the rest of the world, but nothing like the Nazi war effort, which goes to show how idea's can motivate groups of people.

laurent92 5y ago
Did you say the West had pollution? Isn’t it China? Do you say USA and Europe have higher pollution?
- Terry_Roll 5y ago
  Cleaning products are considered pollution by NASA which is why they came up with a list of plants to clean the air in their hypothetical moonbase. You also have energy efficient homes which dont do the air exchange as much allowing for a build up of pollutants in the home and office but not all of them get considered pollutants. And just because you cant see the particulates like soot, doesnt mean the air is cleaner, its just different chemicals that still have a negative effect on the body. Look into Dieselgate to find out about those.
  - laurent92 5y ago
    I agree, but I’m surprised that GP said that people in the West have lower IQ because pollution is vastly superior. If proven, it would help me choose a country to emigrate, but I recall dodgy plastics in Indonesia and smog in China, and I’m quite sure the less-tertiary countries have more pollutants.

pintxo 5y ago

I wondered for a while, is there any sensible analysis on the effectiveness of economic sanctions?

thr0wawayf00 5y ago
Here is one I saw wrt the Russia sanctions specifically that seems to be well-sourced and makes sense whilst being pretty terrifying for the Russian people[0]. TLDR; Russians are about to face mass shortages of basic goods at the same time their markets are crashing. This is going to cause major problems when people try to buy things like food and seed to grow more food. There's already a brain drain hitting Russia as these sanctions take effect, so the government may be forced to close the borders as well. 0: https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/03/04/world-war-of-economic-attrition/ https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/03/04/world-war-of-economic-...

xdennis 5y ago

Not buying stuff is war, but invading a country is a special military operation. We are living in crazy times, but as the Ukrainian ambassador said, there's no purgatory for these people, they go straight to hell.

thr0wawayf00 5y ago
> Not buying stuff is war Removing the tools of trade to specifically punish a country is akin to war, I agree with the sentiment. A lot of innocent people are going to starve and die because of this decision, regardless of whether or not bombs are dropped. They don't have any other options and their already fragile and corrupt markets are crashing.

jansen555 5y ago

I expect Russia to boost assasination squads. Most companies have no access to secret service. Not only they are sitting ducks, their families too. All I can say is see mysterious and over the top deaths of public companies c-level tier. As you can see Putin shelling civilians building. But what Ukrainian news source didn't tell you is that those building have civilians taking up arms. Once you do that it is a fair gain to bomb you. American routinely did that. Ever heard of Obama bombing hospitals? Killing children? Killing goat herders that "look" like OBL? These civilians upgraded themselves to enemy combatant status. Yes, rise of sanctions as modern war tool. But so is economic civilians assasinations too.