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I think you missed the parent's comment. FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked." How do I prove: - T

by mbesto 5y ago

I think you missed the parent's comment. FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked." How do I prove: - This is true without actually seeing the data that buses are fully booked - Yle is a trustworthy media outlet and what they are saying is true - The Finnish government isn't booking the buses and then telling the media that buses are booked For the record - I believe that Russians are trying to do exactly what you said and what the article says. I trust this. However, this is precisely the issue - what outlets do you really trust? Stuff that comes from BBC? CNN? New age "influencers" on YT/TikTok? This is the problem.

mach1ne 5y ago
You can estimate the trustworthiness by analyzing the motives of the source. YLE is the Finnish equivalent of BBC. They have a record of being extremely trustworthy (this can be analysed retrospectively). Do they have a significant enough incentive to lie about this subject to throw that trust away? I see no such motive here, thus it's highly probable that the source is not intentionally lying. The same is true when it comes to the Finnish Government.
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jacquesm 5y ago
I don't actually care what your personal threshold for believing something is, I care about mine, and mine is more than satisfied. People say the same stuff about the number of Russian dead claimed by the Ukrainian defense forces. Are they exaggerating? Probably yes. Is it with a factor that changes the facts in a meaningful way? Probably not, given the portion that has been independently verified. Even if that's all there is then it is already enough to count as fact, and it very, very likely isn't all there is. Something similar is happening here: the amount of evidence that Russian cosmopolitans are reading the writing on the wall is ample, it is reflected in the restrictions in how much capital Russians can take with them abroad, it is reflected in the number of trains running (those things are pretty hard to fake) and it is reflected in all of the personal stories and cries for help from Russians to try to get settled where ever they arrived. Personally I won't give them quarter until the last of the Ukrainian refugees has been settled, but I do believe the fact that many Russians are fleeing Russia while they can. But they are fleeing for economic reasons, Ukrainians are fleeing so they can stay alive.
gruez 5y ago
>However, this is precisely the issue - what outlets do you really trust? Stuff that comes from BBC? CNN? New age "influencers" on YT/TikTok? This is the problem. see: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust Or applying your comment to a domestic news event. Suppose fox news say there's a school shooting. How do you prove: - This is true without actually going to the school to see the dead bodies - The US government isn't hiring crisis actors and then telling the media that there's a shooting

by mbesto 5y ago

mach1ne 5y ago

You can estimate the trustworthiness by analyzing the motives of the source. YLE is the Finnish equivalent of BBC. They have a record of being extremely trustworthy (this can be analysed retrospectively). Do they have a significant enough incentive to lie about this subject to throw that trust away? I see no such motive here, thus it's highly probable that the source is not intentionally lying. The same is true when it comes to the Finnish Government.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

jacquesm 5y ago

I don't actually care what your personal threshold for believing something is, I care about mine, and mine is more than satisfied. People say the same stuff about the number of Russian dead claimed by the Ukrainian defense forces. Are they exaggerating? Probably yes. Is it with a factor that changes the facts in a meaningful way? Probably not, given the portion that has been independently verified. Even if that's all there is then it is already enough to count as fact, and it very, very likely isn't all there is. Something similar is happening here: the amount of evidence that Russian cosmopolitans are reading the writing on the wall is ample, it is reflected in the restrictions in how much capital Russians can take with them abroad, it is reflected in the number of trains running (those things are pretty hard to fake) and it is reflected in all of the personal stories and cries for help from Russians to try to get settled where ever they arrived. Personally I won't give them quarter until the last of the Ukrainian refugees has been settled, but I do believe the fact that many Russians are fleeing Russia while they can. But they are fleeing for economic reasons, Ukrainians are fleeing so they can stay alive.

gruez 5y ago

>However, this is precisely the issue - what outlets do you really trust? Stuff that comes from BBC? CNN? New age "influencers" on YT/TikTok? This is the problem. see: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust Or applying your comment to a domestic news event. Suppose fox news say there's a school shooting. How do you prove: - This is true without actually going to the school to see the dead bodies - The US government isn't hiring crisis actors and then telling the media that there's a shooting