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Even if Putin was somehow deposed tomorrow and somehow the invasion ended, that curve is not coming back down any time soon. Kind of like gas prices during/aft
by ck2 5y ago
Even if Putin was somehow deposed tomorrow and somehow the invasion ended, that curve is not coming back down any time soon.
Kind of like gas prices during/after invasion of Iraq? Despite local production availability, it was an opportunistic hike.
What's weird though is I noticed a price spike and then sudden unavailability of many wheat products just after New Years.
- School-Cotton 5y ago> Even if Putin was somehow deposed tomorrow and somehow the invasion ended, that curve is not coming back down any time soon. Why not? If everything normalized tomorrow, what would stop Russia and Ukraine from resuming wheat shipments?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ed25519FUUU 5y agoWho is to say Putin isn’t deposed by somebody even more ruthless than himself?
- School-Cotton 5y agoWe are talking about the hypothesis that the invasion ends and relations are normalized.
- thesuperbigfrog 5y ago>> If everything normalized tomorrow, what would stop Russia and Ukraine from resuming wheat shipments? The effects of war are not magically undone when the war ends. If the war ended today, it would take Ukraine decades to recover. Pictures like these do not show the people whose lives have been shattered or lost: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-before-and-after-the-devastating-impact-of-russias-attack-12555679 https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-before-and-after... Similarly, the sanctions on Russia are only a symbol of the loss of trust and willingness to cooperate that many people throughout the world feel. How many years or decades will it take to build back that trust?
- School-Cotton 5y agoYour picture is not of a destroyed wheat field, so what is your point? Everything in the linked story claims that wheat shortages are due to short-term disruption, not productive capacity having been destroyed. > How many years or decades will it take to build back that trust? That’s irrelevant to the discussion. You don’t need to trust someone in order to buy wheat from them. The actual sanctions are what matter, not whatever they “symbolize”. And there’s no reason to believe the sanctions would last for years or decades if Putin were deposed and Russia’s aggressive actions stopped.
- thesuperbigfrog 5y ago>> Your picture is not of a destroyed wheat field, so what is your point? Everything in the linked story claims that wheat shortages are due to short-term disruption, not productive capacity having been destroyed. Wheat fields don't harvest themselves. Wheat can't drive itself to ports and load itself on ships. It requires people and infrastructure. The war has disrupted those people and the country's infrastructure. It does not magically return when the war ends. >> You don’t need to trust someone in order to buy wheat from them. Yes, but when given the choice many people choose not to do business with murderous criminal thugs. If someone killed your family members or friends would you buy grain from them? Or would you pay more and buy grain from someone else? >> And there’s no reason to believe the sanctions would last for years or decades if Putin were deposed and Russia’s aggressive actions stopped. Who knows? That has not happened yet.
- Aperocky 5y agowheat does not need trust, it is not a fiat currency.
- thesuperbigfrog 5y ago>> wheat does not need trust, it is not a fiat currency. As I said above, when given the choice many people choose not to do business with murderous criminal thugs. If someone killed your family members or friends would you buy grain from them? Or would you pay more and buy grain from someone else?
- DiabloD3 5y agoTechnically, nothing. If you ended up with a 100% pro-Ukranian Russian government, they could immediately cease fire, and begin talks with the entire world on resuming commerce. They may have to invent a new currency, but this would be what, the fourth Russian currency in modern times? Nothing new.
- thriftwy 5y agoAn interesting plan. What if Russians don't agree?
- DiabloD3 5y agoI see no reason why the Russian people won't agree, they almost universally despise Putin, especially after just sending a bunch of kids to die on the front lines with no supplies or plan. The only people who worship Putin are a vocal, dangerous, and violent minority that are about to find themselves persona non grata in their own homeland.
- mynameishere 5y agoRight after a news story about Putin getting deposed will be a news story about the Baltics being invaded. So, careful about what you wish for.