3 ms·

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking things are unknowable. Madness lies at the extremes of believing everything and believing nothing

ModernMech 5y ago
This is very important. I used to believe that keeping an open mind was the most important thing, so I listened to everything. Sounds great but the problem is it leaves one in a state of complete inaction, because you're never sure of anything, and people use that to their advantage. While you're sitting around trying to figure out the state of things, they are acting on convictions which may not be 100% right but at least they are getting things done, and that means they're going to win. So while it's important to be factually right it's also important to have convictions, even if you can't justify all of them without bias. No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent. Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)

ModernMech 5y ago

This is very important. I used to believe that keeping an open mind was the most important thing, so I listened to everything. Sounds great but the problem is it leaves one in a state of complete inaction, because you're never sure of anything, and people use that to their advantage. While you're sitting around trying to figure out the state of things, they are acting on convictions which may not be 100% right but at least they are getting things done, and that means they're going to win. So while it's important to be factually right it's also important to have convictions, even if you can't justify all of them without bias. No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent. Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)