5 ms·

I'm talking about ALL the people that are against Putin. Which if this guy is to be believed is most of the people. They are not going to kill most of their o

I'm talking about ALL the people that are against Putin. Which if this guy is to be believed is most of the people. They are not going to kill most of their own people. A million people marching in Moscow would change minds.

jacquesm 5y ago
I agree it would change minds. And at the same time I'm pretty sure it would end in a bloodbath. Passive resistance against a dictatorship is a lot safer than active resistance. Of course the latter sends a more powerful message but it makes it obvious who to target, when and where and the reflexive response will be to lash out. Still, there is safety in numbers so maybe it would work. But I would not immediately bet on it, otoh simply crippling the Russian economy further could be achieved by inaction.
- formvoltron 5y ago
  There are already young people brave enough to protest with just 2000 people protesting. I'm talking about a million people standing outside and walking towards the Red Square, shaking their keys. If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Those people are especially brave because the numbers are so low. But they are being made an example out of and that will have a chilling effect on whoever might have followed them. > If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever. If you haven't seen this firsthand, then I understand. But I have seen it firsthand. Here is how it went: in the 80's, when solidarity was rising up in Poland a relatively small minority drove the revolution, and found support in a large chunk of the younger generation and some in older people as well. But the bulk of the Poles had seen it all before. Small uprisings that were brutally smacked down, with the local secret police making lists of people to raise from their beds in the inevitable crackdown. So they were advising their kids not to go to the Solidarity rallies, not to protest and so on. In some families this led to harsh words, and some families never really recovered. Because that one time those kids and the people behind Solidarity were right, they prevailed. They managed to achieve critical mass. They showed that you too could be brave and on the right side of history, and live to tell the tale. And eventually, after the wall fell of course all those other people suffered from memory loss and they too had been present at probably every demonstration, instead of sitting quaking in their house about the kind of terrible thing those idiot youngsters were bringing down on their houses. But make no mistake: for all the same money the army would have opened fire on the protests. It wasn't a 'done deal' until it was and it could have very easily gone the other way, as it had so many times before. And note that it was tried: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek (I really don't like the title of that article) and even if you may see the death toll as 'acceptable' the fact is that those people died and if the same thing had happened in for instance Gdansk the death toll would have been a very large multiple of that. It may not have been enough to break the back of Solidarity, but that's not something we will ever know for sure. If you've seen the kind of bravery in Russia in the last couple of years, regarding the murders of journalists, the jailing of opposition politicians and so on then you really have to keep a little bit of room for the cowards that were right every time so far, and who can not with all their fantasy see a million people march on the Kremlin. And by not being able to see it they indeed make it less likely. If it happens it should be massive. 2000 people will get arrested, a substantial multiple of that might get shot, and we're nowhere near the point where a million people would mobilize. But if and when they do, there will be a lot of blood flowing and at the end of it Putin will be gone. But they'd better bring something more potent than just their housekeys.
  - jquery 5y ago
    I saw a picture of a Russian mall from yesterday, lots of people out and about shopping like nothing is amiss. So far the Russian protests are pretty anemic (I mean in numbers, not in passion, and I greatly respect those currently protesting), it seems most Russians are a lot more concerned with the status quo, and that life is still pretty comfortable for them while bombs rain down on Ukrainian civilians. There’s so much they could be doing to show their disagreement with the government.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      This is compounded by the fact that the troops Russia has sent are predominantly from the very far East of Russia and are not directly related to the Russian cosmopolitans from the West. SOP for the Russians in the last wars.
    - foxfluff 5y ago
      > So far the Russian protests are pretty anemic (I mean in numbers, not in passion, and I greatly respect those currently protesting) Well I don't know about passion. I've seen videos where there are a lot of people protesting but when the police come grab a girl, everyone just stands around watching and filming. When the police come running at a crowd, the crowd runs away and it fizzles out. There's none of the Maidan passion.
Yajirobe 5y ago
> A million people marching in Moscow would change minds. How? What would they do? They would march and riot and protest and then after a day or two they would go home. Meanwhile the politicians will just wait it out and the show will go on (see Belarus).
- drakonka 5y ago
  Why would you assume that? (See Euromaidan)
  - utrack 5y ago
    Compare the total area of Ukraine and Russia - and max distance between the border and the capital city.
  - 331c8c71 5y ago
    One possibility is that Yanukovich is more humane than putin or lukashenko. I don't know enough about him to compare but the last two are merciless dictators.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      That's not a real possibility though, the only way Ukraine will be kept down will be with continuous threats. I personally don't think he will live an hour after he sets foot into Kyiv.
    - roveo 5y ago
      There's another thing that was different at Euromaidan vs current Russia: Yanukovich and his people had somewhere to run (Russia). Putin doesn't.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        He doesn't have to run to someplace, he can just run into some stuff. Preferably a bullet.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> A million people marching in Moscow would change minds Especially if, say, a quarter of them were military and/or internal security personnel that came out with their gear. Even the least democratic government relies on support of the people to function, but not even the most democratic (and certainly not Russia) depends on each person’s support equally.
BbzzbB 5y ago
A million people marching won't change Putin's mind, only a bullet to the head could (tho I don't expect protesters have a chance to reach him in his bunker), but it could convince even more citizens to walk into fire. However the army will certainly be given the order to kill their own people if they rise up, Putin's learned how to quell a revolt with blood while helping al-Assad with his own. I don't believe for a second he wouldn't turn another one or two of his cities into Grozny or Aleppo if he deems it necessary to deter revolt and make a point. The question is, if people actually revolt en masse, just how far will the military go in obeying orders. I don't believe in god but may it help them all, and us afterwards, if the they can't be convinced to mutiny even under those orders.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  That's pretty much how I see it, which is why I think the responsible choice would be to just refuse to show up for work. Eventually that will cripple the country to the point where everything stops working and it will be much harder to get past that compared to a concentrated protest.
depr 5y ago
>They are not going to kill most of their own people What makes you think that? Do you think the Uyghurs of which there are millions in China should just walk out shaking their fucking keys? If Putin loses the war he will lose power. He will no longer win the next election as he'll be seen as weak. So he can't change his mind and if people start a protest in Moscow it is in his interest to do everything he can to quell it. Furthermore you say you have no sympathy for Russians if they can't manage to get a million people to walk out. So if there are only 10,000 people who are against Putin, they just have to suffer the consequences for the choices that the rest of them made?

jacquesm 5y ago

I agree it would change minds. And at the same time I'm pretty sure it would end in a bloodbath. Passive resistance against a dictatorship is a lot safer than active resistance. Of course the latter sends a more powerful message but it makes it obvious who to target, when and where and the reflexive response will be to lash out. Still, there is safety in numbers so maybe it would work. But I would not immediately bet on it, otoh simply crippling the Russian economy further could be achieved by inaction.

formvoltron 5y ago
There are already young people brave enough to protest with just 2000 people protesting. I'm talking about a million people standing outside and walking towards the Red Square, shaking their keys. If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Those people are especially brave because the numbers are so low. But they are being made an example out of and that will have a chilling effect on whoever might have followed them. > If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever. If you haven't seen this firsthand, then I understand. But I have seen it firsthand. Here is how it went: in the 80's, when solidarity was rising up in Poland a relatively small minority drove the revolution, and found support in a large chunk of the younger generation and some in older people as well. But the bulk of the Poles had seen it all before. Small uprisings that were brutally smacked down, with the local secret police making lists of people to raise from their beds in the inevitable crackdown. So they were advising their kids not to go to the Solidarity rallies, not to protest and so on. In some families this led to harsh words, and some families never really recovered. Because that one time those kids and the people behind Solidarity were right, they prevailed. They managed to achieve critical mass. They showed that you too could be brave and on the right side of history, and live to tell the tale. And eventually, after the wall fell of course all those other people suffered from memory loss and they too had been present at probably every demonstration, instead of sitting quaking in their house about the kind of terrible thing those idiot youngsters were bringing down on their houses. But make no mistake: for all the same money the army would have opened fire on the protests. It wasn't a 'done deal' until it was and it could have very easily gone the other way, as it had so many times before. And note that it was tried: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek (I really don't like the title of that article) and even if you may see the death toll as 'acceptable' the fact is that those people died and if the same thing had happened in for instance Gdansk the death toll would have been a very large multiple of that. It may not have been enough to break the back of Solidarity, but that's not something we will ever know for sure. If you've seen the kind of bravery in Russia in the last couple of years, regarding the murders of journalists, the jailing of opposition politicians and so on then you really have to keep a little bit of room for the cowards that were right every time so far, and who can not with all their fantasy see a million people march on the Kremlin. And by not being able to see it they indeed make it less likely. If it happens it should be massive. 2000 people will get arrested, a substantial multiple of that might get shot, and we're nowhere near the point where a million people would mobilize. But if and when they do, there will be a lot of blood flowing and at the end of it Putin will be gone. But they'd better bring something more potent than just their housekeys.
- jquery 5y ago
  I saw a picture of a Russian mall from yesterday, lots of people out and about shopping like nothing is amiss. So far the Russian protests are pretty anemic (I mean in numbers, not in passion, and I greatly respect those currently protesting), it seems most Russians are a lot more concerned with the status quo, and that life is still pretty comfortable for them while bombs rain down on Ukrainian civilians. There’s so much they could be doing to show their disagreement with the government.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    This is compounded by the fact that the troops Russia has sent are predominantly from the very far East of Russia and are not directly related to the Russian cosmopolitans from the West. SOP for the Russians in the last wars.
  - foxfluff 5y ago
    > So far the Russian protests are pretty anemic (I mean in numbers, not in passion, and I greatly respect those currently protesting) Well I don't know about passion. I've seen videos where there are a lot of people protesting but when the police come grab a girl, everyone just stands around watching and filming. When the police come running at a crowd, the crowd runs away and it fizzles out. There's none of the Maidan passion.

Yajirobe 5y ago

> A million people marching in Moscow would change minds. How? What would they do? They would march and riot and protest and then after a day or two they would go home. Meanwhile the politicians will just wait it out and the show will go on (see Belarus).

drakonka 5y ago
Why would you assume that? (See Euromaidan)
- utrack 5y ago
  Compare the total area of Ukraine and Russia - and max distance between the border and the capital city.
- 331c8c71 5y ago
  One possibility is that Yanukovich is more humane than putin or lukashenko. I don't know enough about him to compare but the last two are merciless dictators.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    That's not a real possibility though, the only way Ukraine will be kept down will be with continuous threats. I personally don't think he will live an hour after he sets foot into Kyiv.
  - roveo 5y ago
    There's another thing that was different at Euromaidan vs current Russia: Yanukovich and his people had somewhere to run (Russia). Putin doesn't.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      He doesn't have to run to someplace, he can just run into some stuff. Preferably a bullet.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> A million people marching in Moscow would change minds Especially if, say, a quarter of them were military and/or internal security personnel that came out with their gear. Even the least democratic government relies on support of the people to function, but not even the most democratic (and certainly not Russia) depends on each person’s support equally.

BbzzbB 5y ago

A million people marching won't change Putin's mind, only a bullet to the head could (tho I don't expect protesters have a chance to reach him in his bunker), but it could convince even more citizens to walk into fire. However the army will certainly be given the order to kill their own people if they rise up, Putin's learned how to quell a revolt with blood while helping al-Assad with his own. I don't believe for a second he wouldn't turn another one or two of his cities into Grozny or Aleppo if he deems it necessary to deter revolt and make a point. The question is, if people actually revolt en masse, just how far will the military go in obeying orders. I don't believe in god but may it help them all, and us afterwards, if the they can't be convinced to mutiny even under those orders.

jacquesm 5y ago
That's pretty much how I see it, which is why I think the responsible choice would be to just refuse to show up for work. Eventually that will cripple the country to the point where everything stops working and it will be much harder to get past that compared to a concentrated protest.

depr 5y ago

>They are not going to kill most of their own people What makes you think that? Do you think the Uyghurs of which there are millions in China should just walk out shaking their fucking keys? If Putin loses the war he will lose power. He will no longer win the next election as he'll be seen as weak. So he can't change his mind and if people start a protest in Moscow it is in his interest to do everything he can to quell it. Furthermore you say you have no sympathy for Russians if they can't manage to get a million people to walk out. So if there are only 10,000 people who are against Putin, they just have to suffer the consequences for the choices that the rest of them made?