7 ms·

This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unl

by daenz 5y ago

This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unless you are personally connected to an official source, I believe you can't know with any reasonable certainty. The primary source for this story appears to be public Google Trends data.

rblk48 5y ago
Many Blacks, Asians faced racism near Ukraine border. But according to reddit they are all Russian propaganda, some met even with more racist comments. Of course HN cleverly avoided it by not discussing it as all.
diordiderot 5y ago
The ole, "the science is unsettled argument" a classic. Repurposed for propaganda very fresh, Tasteful even
smoldesu 5y ago
What motivation does Google have to falsify their Trends data? If anything, I think this is more valuable than anecdotal evidence. It's a relatively trustworthy source delivering the same data they always have, and letting you draw the conclusions.
- stavros 5y ago
  I don't trust the conclusions I draw. The average person is very bad at coming up with explanations, and the pandemic misinformation has illustrated this. "If you die with COVID they put you down as having died from COVID, therefore they're trying to inflate the numbers" is an explanation. If you aren't good at coming up with multiple alternatives and selecting the best one, you're likely to select the one that fits, or the one someone already gave you, and not the real one.
- slim 5y ago
  maybe someone else is falsifying google trends ?
  - daenz 5y ago
    I can't even confirm their statements, but I may be using google trends wrong: >More Russians are asking Google “how to leave Russia” than have done so in 18 years since such data became public. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=RU&q=how%20to%20leave%20Russia https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
    - moonshinefe 5y ago
      Why would they be searching in English? Also those numbers are "relative popularity" on a scale of 0-100. I'm seeing what the article claims here, more or less. But it's a little unclear exactly what search terms they were all checking.
      - daenz 5y ago
        >Why would they be searching in English? Good point, here's the Russian translation of "how to leave Russia", which doesn't appear to be much different than the English version. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%B8%D0%B7%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... EDIT>> This is wrong! My mistake, when I translated, I accidentally switched the source country back to USA.
        moonshinefe 5y ago
        I'm not sure what some of the spikes in years past were about, but again it's a scale of 'how popular the terms were' from 0-100 not a raw count. You can see it spiking hard recently compared to the average. Without seeing the raw numbers it's hard to tell exactly how significant it is though.
    - 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- bsedlm 5y ago
  but what about Yandex? as far as I recall, they're bigger than google in russia, hence any google data is missing most of the picture
bsedlm 5y ago
it's very counter intuitive, there's so much information that we cannot know anything (for certain) trust is at an all time low and getting lower
arka2147483647 5y ago
This is what russian trolls want. So much uncertainty, that you don’t belive anything. Not even truth.
- droptablemain 5y ago
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    > Seems like most of the disinformation is currently coming from the NATO/Ukraine side. Sure... /s That's probably why the West has just enacted a law that whoever talks about the war in Ukraine in terms of war will face all kinds of trouble. Oh, wait. Really, you can't make this stuff up, do you actually believe that people on HN will read what you say and then dutifully turn to Pravda for their news from now on?
    - vbezhenar 5y ago
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > West countries have similar laws. Sorry, but no, we don't. > They even have an entire culture: Cancel Culture. You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. > While I hate every discrimination of speech freedom, you can't paint Russia as something unique, West is an example they follow. I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday.
        vbezhenar 5y ago
        > Sorry, but no, we don't. https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-or-putin-could-be-prosecuted-in-the-czech-republic/ https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-o... https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagandy-hrozi-az-dozivotie/ https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagand... I don't see any difference. > You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. Of course I'm aware what does it means. I'm also aware of "deplatforming" and other ways to silence unpleasing speech. Which could be described as a single word: censorship. > I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. I thought the same until Europe started to ban Russia Today and other websites. And don't even tell me that it's different. It's a perfectly legal website which tried to present alternative view point. But West is too afraid that its citizens might believe to something other than official propaganda. > It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday. Baseless accusations. I could say that western agents killed him. It's just as likely.
bluejekyll 5y ago
And this is the exactly why lies and dis/misinformation are so dangerous to society. It makes every source questionable, even one’s like the economist that have tended to give fairly accurate balanced news. The first amendment is a double edged sword, but all false statements need to be challenged so that a free and Democratic society can function properly. The problem is that lies are cheap to produce, and the truth is expensive to prove. That imbalance of cost is a real struggle to overcome.
- dolni 5y ago
  Are you suggesting that free speech is responsible for misinformation? The first amendment is absolutely not a double-edged sword. The alternative is STRICTLY worse. You end up with governments, like China's, who lie and challenging that lie is punishable.
  - bluejekyll 5y ago
    It fits a pretty strong definition of a double edged sword. It protects the rights of people say false statements as equally as true statements. The false statements are dangerous as it makes it difficult to make good decisions with it because those are based off of bad information. Calling it a double-edged sword is not meant to say it’s not valuable. It absolutely is. It’s the bedrock of our democracy in the US. The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies?
    - dolni 5y ago
      I understand how you're invoking the idea of a double-edged sword. I just don't usually hear it in a context where the alternative is living in dystopia. > The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies? Listen to alternative perspectives. Engage with ideas you don't agree with. Be aware of your biases, and other peoples' biases. Defend your perspectives using reason and evidence, not emotion or moral values (note: reason and evidence are the only things we can somewhat objectively agree on; though we still have to be aware of people doing shady stuff with studies and using statistics to misrepresent real-world phenomena). The trend I'm starting to see is that a lot of disconnects stem from ignorance.
berberous 5y ago
I generally agree with you for most stories and facts about the war, but this one is just obvious. The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts. In the face of the above, of course people are considering leaving Russia. That is just smart and human nature.
- daenz 5y ago
  If it was clearly obvious, then why wouldn't the Economist use these other sources directly, instead of leaning so heavily on Google Trends data? It's a flimsy way to present truth.
  - systemvoltage 5y ago
    The Economist is a short-medium form publication. It has excellent reputation. I am wondering about what's causing you to be overly skeptical? Have there been major reputable publications who have misled you (specifically about Russia)?
    - daenz 5y ago
      I mentioned in another comment, and I don't want to spam, but I wasn't able to verify their Google search trends claim, using the source country as Russia, and searching both English and Russian translations of the terms they quoted in the article. EDIT>> This is wrong! I am able to confirm the Google Trends data now.
      - mumblemumble 5y ago
        Did you double-check the region in which you're searching? By default it shows trends for where Google thinks you are. I had to use Google Translate to get terms to search in Russian, so take my results with a grain of salt, but, even so, I was generally able to get some nice hockey sticks when I told Google to show me what people in Russia are searching for instead of what Russian-speaking people in the USA are searching for.
dandanua 5y ago
To filter a lie you can try to use logic and critical thinking. It's clear that sanctions and isolation are gonna be devastating. Many people joke that Russia is heading towards "stone age". Thus, it's absolutely logical that people just want to flee the sinking battleship.
Mikeb85 5y ago
Go on Twitter, Telegram, YouTube, anywhere. You'll see plenty of primary videos and accounts corroborating this. You're right, 1 source alone isn't reliable. But there's a massive body of evidence out there, this whole war has been televised. And the Ukrainian narrative has way more evidence than the Russian one...
- CyberRabbi 5y ago
  Those are all primarily western platforms. Even if they did show what you are claiming, it wouldn’t prove your point. RT is blocked on Telegram and YouTube for instance.
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    Telegram is owned by Russians and operated out of Dubai... Western countries have literally warned about it for that reason... Twitter has large shareholders in the Middle East. Also I forgot TikTok. Plenty of vids there. Owned by the Chinese. You can check that out. But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda...
    - CyberRabbi 5y ago
      > But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda... To what exactly are you referring? Everything I wrote in my comment is true. RT is factually banned on Telegram.
  - cguess 5y ago
    Telegram was created by a Russian.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - CyberRabbi 5y ago
      Yet RT is still banned on Telegram.
jacquesm 5y ago
Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the opposite effect), people are getting out via the land, either by car or by train.
- andi999 5y ago
  I thought you need a schengen visa to enter finland, and there would not have been time to get one from the time the war started. I would like to hear more details on this news.
  - lostmsu 5y ago
    A lot of Russians do have visas they obtained for tourism.
- daenz 5y ago
  >there is talk of martial law in Russia I want to highlight this, because I think it illustrates my point about propaganda. I dug around for a source on that statement, and this appears the most reliable source[0]. An anonymous EU official picking up on "signs". Again, this also may be totally true, but it's presented in such a flimsy way, how can a reasonable person be expected to believe it at face value? Am I saying the quiet part out loud? Should I not question the propaganda if it is something that I think helps the situation? It's not my nature, but it seems like that's what people are doing. 0. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-up-signs-russia-may-bring-martial-law-2022-03-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-u...
  - grey-area 5y ago
    Rumours are not propaganda. No you haven't discovered a vast EU-wide conspiracy or someone 'saying the quiet part out loud'. Nobody knows what is going on and naturally there is lots of speculation to fill the void.
gostsamo 5y ago
There was a story on front page yesterday for russian IT specialists who want to get out. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091
- jacquesm 5y ago
  There are 100's such stories, all of which center on the very lucky few who still have the means to move themselves around and some hard currency. For the remainder it will be very hard to do anything at all.
  - gostsamo 5y ago
    It will be, but it does not mean that they don't want to try.
jstx1 5y ago
You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. You don't need to go into opinion pieces or into hypothesizing.
- qiskit 5y ago
  > You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. Would you say we should believe major russian news orgs? Healthy skepticism is required, especially during times of war. There is a reason why each side banned the other's media, social media, etc. So that they can spread propaganda without pushback. The first casualty in war is the truth.
  - jstx1 5y ago
    Skepticism is fine but this isn’t a symmetrical problem where you should treat the two sides equally. Their incentives and credibility aren’t the same.
vbezhenar 5y ago
Of course some people would flee from Russia. What's so hard to believe about it? If you can leave country, you don't support the government and it's obvious that conditions are going to be harsh, surely you'd do that and in big country there will be thousands of people in those conditions. Just don't make conclusions like the entire country wants to leave.
flavius29663 5y ago
I hope you still believe that Russian is shelling civilian cities, because that is on video
- hidudeurcool 5y ago
ransom1538 5y ago
Really? They all have cellphones now filming it.
gameswithgo 5y ago
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking things are unknowable. Madness lies at the extremes of believing everything and believing nothing
- ModernMech 5y ago
  This is very important. I used to believe that keeping an open mind was the most important thing, so I listened to everything. Sounds great but the problem is it leaves one in a state of complete inaction, because you're never sure of anything, and people use that to their advantage. While you're sitting around trying to figure out the state of things, they are acting on convictions which may not be 100% right but at least they are getting things done, and that means they're going to win. So while it's important to be factually right it's also important to have convictions, even if you can't justify all of them without bias. No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent. Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)
jdrc 5y ago
it s not like there are no checks at airports, it should be obvious if there is a trend
skeletal88 5y ago
I live in Estonia. If I see news reports where they interview people from the border guard who say that there are more border crossings than usual, owner of coach company says that they have added more trips to St. Petersburg and number of russians traveling has increased, also Russian-owned bus companies have added more trips to Estonia, where busses leaving here are alomst empty but packed full of travelers when leaving St. Petersburg. Also bus companies have said that more people travel with pets or large luggage. Are they all lying? https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-express-st-petersburg-tallinn-routes-double https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-expr...
- roveo 5y ago
  Also Estonia isn't a prime destination for Russians in this situation. Countries that don't require a visa are. Yesterday 42 passenger planes landed in Yerevan (Armenia), normal number being 3-4 daily.
- vertis 5y ago
  I had wondered how welcoming Estonia was being to Russians at the moment. I suggested a couple of Russians that are leaving reach out and ask, because Estonia is one of my favourite countries in the world and I had faith that you would be helping Russians flee. Hopefully, I will get to come visit again once this all calms down.
lmeyerov 5y ago
Official sources are less reliable: Russia is heavy on propaganda at the state and media levels, and destination country reports will be spiky, slow, or nonexistent. This presentation is interesting because it is a data presentation that is large, direct, and open: Of Russian IPs using a Google, search terms associated with leaving are going up, even pre-war. Your own research can now be on alternative hypotheses like maybe Google became that much more popular in the last few months in spikey per-keyword patterns, or that the Russian population using Google is big (some X%) but has opposite beliefs of all non-Google users. For both, you can check against something like Yandex, which has a similar feature.

by daenz 5y ago

rblk48 5y ago

Many Blacks, Asians faced racism near Ukraine border. But according to reddit they are all Russian propaganda, some met even with more racist comments. Of course HN cleverly avoided it by not discussing it as all.

diordiderot 5y ago

The ole, "the science is unsettled argument" a classic. Repurposed for propaganda very fresh, Tasteful even

smoldesu 5y ago

What motivation does Google have to falsify their Trends data? If anything, I think this is more valuable than anecdotal evidence. It's a relatively trustworthy source delivering the same data they always have, and letting you draw the conclusions.

stavros 5y ago
I don't trust the conclusions I draw. The average person is very bad at coming up with explanations, and the pandemic misinformation has illustrated this. "If you die with COVID they put you down as having died from COVID, therefore they're trying to inflate the numbers" is an explanation. If you aren't good at coming up with multiple alternatives and selecting the best one, you're likely to select the one that fits, or the one someone already gave you, and not the real one.
slim 5y ago
maybe someone else is falsifying google trends ?
- daenz 5y ago
  I can't even confirm their statements, but I may be using google trends wrong: >More Russians are asking Google “how to leave Russia” than have done so in 18 years since such data became public. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=RU&q=how%20to%20leave%20Russia https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
  - moonshinefe 5y ago
    Why would they be searching in English? Also those numbers are "relative popularity" on a scale of 0-100. I'm seeing what the article claims here, more or less. But it's a little unclear exactly what search terms they were all checking.
    - daenz 5y ago
      >Why would they be searching in English? Good point, here's the Russian translation of "how to leave Russia", which doesn't appear to be much different than the English version. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%B8%D0%B7%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... EDIT>> This is wrong! My mistake, when I translated, I accidentally switched the source country back to USA.
      - moonshinefe 5y ago
        I'm not sure what some of the spikes in years past were about, but again it's a scale of 'how popular the terms were' from 0-100 not a raw count. You can see it spiking hard recently compared to the average. Without seeing the raw numbers it's hard to tell exactly how significant it is though.
  - 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
bsedlm 5y ago
but what about Yandex? as far as I recall, they're bigger than google in russia, hence any google data is missing most of the picture

bsedlm 5y ago

it's very counter intuitive, there's so much information that we cannot know anything (for certain) trust is at an all time low and getting lower

arka2147483647 5y ago

This is what russian trolls want. So much uncertainty, that you don’t belive anything. Not even truth.

droptablemain 5y ago
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > Seems like most of the disinformation is currently coming from the NATO/Ukraine side. Sure... /s That's probably why the West has just enacted a law that whoever talks about the war in Ukraine in terms of war will face all kinds of trouble. Oh, wait. Really, you can't make this stuff up, do you actually believe that people on HN will read what you say and then dutifully turn to Pravda for their news from now on?
  - vbezhenar 5y ago
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      > West countries have similar laws. Sorry, but no, we don't. > They even have an entire culture: Cancel Culture. You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. > While I hate every discrimination of speech freedom, you can't paint Russia as something unique, West is an example they follow. I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday.
      - vbezhenar 5y ago
        > Sorry, but no, we don't. https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-or-putin-could-be-prosecuted-in-the-czech-republic/ https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-o... https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagandy-hrozi-az-dozivotie/ https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagand... I don't see any difference. > You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. Of course I'm aware what does it means. I'm also aware of "deplatforming" and other ways to silence unpleasing speech. Which could be described as a single word: censorship. > I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. I thought the same until Europe started to ban Russia Today and other websites. And don't even tell me that it's different. It's a perfectly legal website which tried to present alternative view point. But West is too afraid that its citizens might believe to something other than official propaganda. > It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday. Baseless accusations. I could say that western agents killed him. It's just as likely.

bluejekyll 5y ago

And this is the exactly why lies and dis/misinformation are so dangerous to society. It makes every source questionable, even one’s like the economist that have tended to give fairly accurate balanced news. The first amendment is a double edged sword, but all false statements need to be challenged so that a free and Democratic society can function properly. The problem is that lies are cheap to produce, and the truth is expensive to prove. That imbalance of cost is a real struggle to overcome.

dolni 5y ago
Are you suggesting that free speech is responsible for misinformation? The first amendment is absolutely not a double-edged sword. The alternative is STRICTLY worse. You end up with governments, like China's, who lie and challenging that lie is punishable.
- bluejekyll 5y ago
  It fits a pretty strong definition of a double edged sword. It protects the rights of people say false statements as equally as true statements. The false statements are dangerous as it makes it difficult to make good decisions with it because those are based off of bad information. Calling it a double-edged sword is not meant to say it’s not valuable. It absolutely is. It’s the bedrock of our democracy in the US. The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies?
  - dolni 5y ago
    I understand how you're invoking the idea of a double-edged sword. I just don't usually hear it in a context where the alternative is living in dystopia. > The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies? Listen to alternative perspectives. Engage with ideas you don't agree with. Be aware of your biases, and other peoples' biases. Defend your perspectives using reason and evidence, not emotion or moral values (note: reason and evidence are the only things we can somewhat objectively agree on; though we still have to be aware of people doing shady stuff with studies and using statistics to misrepresent real-world phenomena). The trend I'm starting to see is that a lot of disconnects stem from ignorance.

berberous 5y ago

I generally agree with you for most stories and facts about the war, but this one is just obvious. The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts. In the face of the above, of course people are considering leaving Russia. That is just smart and human nature.

daenz 5y ago
If it was clearly obvious, then why wouldn't the Economist use these other sources directly, instead of leaning so heavily on Google Trends data? It's a flimsy way to present truth.
- systemvoltage 5y ago
  The Economist is a short-medium form publication. It has excellent reputation. I am wondering about what's causing you to be overly skeptical? Have there been major reputable publications who have misled you (specifically about Russia)?
  - daenz 5y ago
    I mentioned in another comment, and I don't want to spam, but I wasn't able to verify their Google search trends claim, using the source country as Russia, and searching both English and Russian translations of the terms they quoted in the article. EDIT>> This is wrong! I am able to confirm the Google Trends data now.
    - mumblemumble 5y ago
      Did you double-check the region in which you're searching? By default it shows trends for where Google thinks you are. I had to use Google Translate to get terms to search in Russian, so take my results with a grain of salt, but, even so, I was generally able to get some nice hockey sticks when I told Google to show me what people in Russia are searching for instead of what Russian-speaking people in the USA are searching for.

dandanua 5y ago

To filter a lie you can try to use logic and critical thinking. It's clear that sanctions and isolation are gonna be devastating. Many people joke that Russia is heading towards "stone age". Thus, it's absolutely logical that people just want to flee the sinking battleship.

Mikeb85 5y ago

Go on Twitter, Telegram, YouTube, anywhere. You'll see plenty of primary videos and accounts corroborating this. You're right, 1 source alone isn't reliable. But there's a massive body of evidence out there, this whole war has been televised. And the Ukrainian narrative has way more evidence than the Russian one...

CyberRabbi 5y ago
Those are all primarily western platforms. Even if they did show what you are claiming, it wouldn’t prove your point. RT is blocked on Telegram and YouTube for instance.
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  Telegram is owned by Russians and operated out of Dubai... Western countries have literally warned about it for that reason... Twitter has large shareholders in the Middle East. Also I forgot TikTok. Plenty of vids there. Owned by the Chinese. You can check that out. But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda...
  - CyberRabbi 5y ago
    > But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda... To what exactly are you referring? Everything I wrote in my comment is true. RT is factually banned on Telegram.
- cguess 5y ago
  Telegram was created by a Russian.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - CyberRabbi 5y ago
    Yet RT is still banned on Telegram.

jacquesm 5y ago

Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the opposite effect), people are getting out via the land, either by car or by train.

andi999 5y ago
I thought you need a schengen visa to enter finland, and there would not have been time to get one from the time the war started. I would like to hear more details on this news.
- lostmsu 5y ago
  A lot of Russians do have visas they obtained for tourism.
daenz 5y ago
>there is talk of martial law in Russia I want to highlight this, because I think it illustrates my point about propaganda. I dug around for a source on that statement, and this appears the most reliable source[0]. An anonymous EU official picking up on "signs". Again, this also may be totally true, but it's presented in such a flimsy way, how can a reasonable person be expected to believe it at face value? Am I saying the quiet part out loud? Should I not question the propaganda if it is something that I think helps the situation? It's not my nature, but it seems like that's what people are doing. 0. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-up-signs-russia-may-bring-martial-law-2022-03-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-u...
- grey-area 5y ago
  Rumours are not propaganda. No you haven't discovered a vast EU-wide conspiracy or someone 'saying the quiet part out loud'. Nobody knows what is going on and naturally there is lots of speculation to fill the void.

gostsamo 5y ago

There was a story on front page yesterday for russian IT specialists who want to get out. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091

jacquesm 5y ago
There are 100's such stories, all of which center on the very lucky few who still have the means to move themselves around and some hard currency. For the remainder it will be very hard to do anything at all.
- gostsamo 5y ago
  It will be, but it does not mean that they don't want to try.

jstx1 5y ago

You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. You don't need to go into opinion pieces or into hypothesizing.

qiskit 5y ago
> You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. Would you say we should believe major russian news orgs? Healthy skepticism is required, especially during times of war. There is a reason why each side banned the other's media, social media, etc. So that they can spread propaganda without pushback. The first casualty in war is the truth.
- jstx1 5y ago
  Skepticism is fine but this isn’t a symmetrical problem where you should treat the two sides equally. Their incentives and credibility aren’t the same.

vbezhenar 5y ago

Of course some people would flee from Russia. What's so hard to believe about it? If you can leave country, you don't support the government and it's obvious that conditions are going to be harsh, surely you'd do that and in big country there will be thousands of people in those conditions. Just don't make conclusions like the entire country wants to leave.

flavius29663 5y ago

I hope you still believe that Russian is shelling civilian cities, because that is on video

hidudeurcool 5y ago

ransom1538 5y ago

Really? They all have cellphones now filming it.

gameswithgo 5y ago

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking things are unknowable. Madness lies at the extremes of believing everything and believing nothing

ModernMech 5y ago
This is very important. I used to believe that keeping an open mind was the most important thing, so I listened to everything. Sounds great but the problem is it leaves one in a state of complete inaction, because you're never sure of anything, and people use that to their advantage. While you're sitting around trying to figure out the state of things, they are acting on convictions which may not be 100% right but at least they are getting things done, and that means they're going to win. So while it's important to be factually right it's also important to have convictions, even if you can't justify all of them without bias. No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent. Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)

jdrc 5y ago

it s not like there are no checks at airports, it should be obvious if there is a trend

skeletal88 5y ago

I live in Estonia. If I see news reports where they interview people from the border guard who say that there are more border crossings than usual, owner of coach company says that they have added more trips to St. Petersburg and number of russians traveling has increased, also Russian-owned bus companies have added more trips to Estonia, where busses leaving here are alomst empty but packed full of travelers when leaving St. Petersburg. Also bus companies have said that more people travel with pets or large luggage. Are they all lying? https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-express-st-petersburg-tallinn-routes-double https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-expr...

roveo 5y ago
Also Estonia isn't a prime destination for Russians in this situation. Countries that don't require a visa are. Yesterday 42 passenger planes landed in Yerevan (Armenia), normal number being 3-4 daily.
vertis 5y ago
I had wondered how welcoming Estonia was being to Russians at the moment. I suggested a couple of Russians that are leaving reach out and ask, because Estonia is one of my favourite countries in the world and I had faith that you would be helping Russians flee. Hopefully, I will get to come visit again once this all calms down.

lmeyerov 5y ago

Official sources are less reliable: Russia is heavy on propaganda at the state and media levels, and destination country reports will be spiky, slow, or nonexistent. This presentation is interesting because it is a data presentation that is large, direct, and open: Of Russian IPs using a Google, search terms associated with leaving are going up, even pre-war. Your own research can now be on alternative hypotheses like maybe Google became that much more popular in the last few months in spikey per-keyword patterns, or that the Russian population using Google is big (some X%) but has opposite beliefs of all non-Google users. For both, you can check against something like Yandex, which has a similar feature.