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> “huge part” That’s fairly doubtful. There’s some proponents of the NATO-provocation theory but geopolitics is way more complicated than than a single indicat

> “huge part” That’s fairly doubtful. There’s some proponents of the NATO-provocation theory but geopolitics is way more complicated than than a single indicator. Putin would still have invaded if the US was an inept backwater that had no foreign policy

331c8c71 5y ago
What were Russias wars since ussr collapse? - Chechnya (internal hence doesn't matter) - Georgia 2008 (after they aligned with the US and decided to join nato) - Ukraine 2014 (pretty much the same reason) - Ukraine 2022 (once nato-ukraine relationships were intensifying at unprecedented rate in 2021) All of these actions were reactions to what putin considers to be crossing of "the red lines" made clear like 20 yrs ago.
FollowingTheDao 5y ago
You are assuming Putin would be the president of Russia if "The US was an inept backwater that had no foreign policy".
danbruc 5y ago
How do you know that Putin would still have invaded? For this you first have to know why he invaded. The most plausible reason - at least to me - is what Putin himself said over and over again, Ukraine becoming a NATO member. There are certainly other things to be gained - Ukraine's oil and gas resources, Crimea with the strategically important naval base in Sevastopol, water supply for Crimea, easier to defend borders, protection of the Russian minority and probably more - but I don't think they carry as much weight as Putin's security concerns. This is not too different from the Cuban Missile Crisis. How would the USA react today if Russia attempted to put missiles on Cuba, for defensive purposes of course? Or better, how would they have reacted 15 years ago so that we keep the Ukraine conflict out of this thought experiment? In no way do I want to defend this war, I want to see Putin defeated as much as everyone else, but unfortunately this is what you get if there are incompatible interests and no one backs down or tries to reach a compromise.
- throwoutway 5y ago
  > How do you know that Putin would still have invaded? For this you first have to know why he invaded. While I think it does play a part, that's not what their propaganda is even using as a reason. This indicates a multitude of reasons and not any one "excuse", which is my point
  - danbruc 5y ago
    Okay, fair point, why not be open about that reason? Maybe the people would not see this as sufficient reason, not perceive the NATO as a threat and back a war. In the west we have, for example, surveillance where the judgment between the state and the people do not really agree.
- wuschel 5y ago
  > if there are incompatible interests and no one backs down or tries to reach a compromise. It is not only incompatible interests. Both groups of actors weigh the case of Ukraine differently. While Putin (et al) are ready to go to for for it, it does not seem to have the same level of priority for NATO countries/USA. One might even say that to a degree, USA is not aligned with the EU in this case (oil imports made by USA, Nordstream 2).
  - danbruc 5y ago
    I am not sure why NATO wanted Ukraine as a member, is there any strategic interest? Or was this more like whoever wants to join NATO can join, they are a sovereign state after all and can do what they want? US and EU are certainly aligned in some aspects, they oppose war in general and the resulting humanitarian crisis, they want to uphold international law, they want sovereignty respected, they do not want further escalation, but I would agree that the US could potentially profit from the situation when the EU adjusts its resource dependencies, especially oil and gas. But I am not sure if gains in specific areas are not offset by the consequences of the entire situation in general.
- vandreas2 5y ago
  Nobody tried to install nuclear missiles in Ukraine and there are plenty of European countries that haven't joined NATO despite much closer ties to the west than Ukraine like Sweden and Finland. I think Ukrainians wouldn't even have considered that their ethnic brothers would attack them (and most ordinary Russians are probably still in denial about it) before Donbas in 2014 and last week which makes their joining NATO an absurdity, you don't need protection when you don't fear someone. Your neighbours joining NATO can be perfectly avoided if you stop invading them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas

331c8c71 5y ago

What were Russias wars since ussr collapse? - Chechnya (internal hence doesn't matter) - Georgia 2008 (after they aligned with the US and decided to join nato) - Ukraine 2014 (pretty much the same reason) - Ukraine 2022 (once nato-ukraine relationships were intensifying at unprecedented rate in 2021) All of these actions were reactions to what putin considers to be crossing of "the red lines" made clear like 20 yrs ago.

FollowingTheDao 5y ago

You are assuming Putin would be the president of Russia if "The US was an inept backwater that had no foreign policy".

danbruc 5y ago

How do you know that Putin would still have invaded? For this you first have to know why he invaded. The most plausible reason - at least to me - is what Putin himself said over and over again, Ukraine becoming a NATO member. There are certainly other things to be gained - Ukraine's oil and gas resources, Crimea with the strategically important naval base in Sevastopol, water supply for Crimea, easier to defend borders, protection of the Russian minority and probably more - but I don't think they carry as much weight as Putin's security concerns. This is not too different from the Cuban Missile Crisis. How would the USA react today if Russia attempted to put missiles on Cuba, for defensive purposes of course? Or better, how would they have reacted 15 years ago so that we keep the Ukraine conflict out of this thought experiment? In no way do I want to defend this war, I want to see Putin defeated as much as everyone else, but unfortunately this is what you get if there are incompatible interests and no one backs down or tries to reach a compromise.

throwoutway 5y ago
> How do you know that Putin would still have invaded? For this you first have to know why he invaded. While I think it does play a part, that's not what their propaganda is even using as a reason. This indicates a multitude of reasons and not any one "excuse", which is my point
- danbruc 5y ago
  Okay, fair point, why not be open about that reason? Maybe the people would not see this as sufficient reason, not perceive the NATO as a threat and back a war. In the west we have, for example, surveillance where the judgment between the state and the people do not really agree.
wuschel 5y ago
> if there are incompatible interests and no one backs down or tries to reach a compromise. It is not only incompatible interests. Both groups of actors weigh the case of Ukraine differently. While Putin (et al) are ready to go to for for it, it does not seem to have the same level of priority for NATO countries/USA. One might even say that to a degree, USA is not aligned with the EU in this case (oil imports made by USA, Nordstream 2).
- danbruc 5y ago
  I am not sure why NATO wanted Ukraine as a member, is there any strategic interest? Or was this more like whoever wants to join NATO can join, they are a sovereign state after all and can do what they want? US and EU are certainly aligned in some aspects, they oppose war in general and the resulting humanitarian crisis, they want to uphold international law, they want sovereignty respected, they do not want further escalation, but I would agree that the US could potentially profit from the situation when the EU adjusts its resource dependencies, especially oil and gas. But I am not sure if gains in specific areas are not offset by the consequences of the entire situation in general.
vandreas2 5y ago
Nobody tried to install nuclear missiles in Ukraine and there are plenty of European countries that haven't joined NATO despite much closer ties to the west than Ukraine like Sweden and Finland. I think Ukrainians wouldn't even have considered that their ethnic brothers would attack them (and most ordinary Russians are probably still in denial about it) before Donbas in 2014 and last week which makes their joining NATO an absurdity, you don't need protection when you don't fear someone. Your neighbours joining NATO can be perfectly avoided if you stop invading them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas