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While you're technically right that the criteria of 'some number of people where that number is > 1 considered it a possibility' was met I don't think you can s
by bigDinosaur 5y ago
While you're technically right that the criteria of 'some number of people where that number is > 1 considered it a possibility' was met I don't think you can so quickly dismiss how quickly the narrative changed once Biden actually announced the fact that the intelligence community was split 70-30 on this. If I had brought up the lab leak theory in my social groups I would have been labelled as QAnon (or charitably adjacent), so there was also definitely a real-world impact of social media, they're not nearly as separate as to say that mixing them up is actually a straight up error.
In addition, there was a lot of initial pushback against any lab leak theory from virologists involved in gain of function research (regardless of whether gain of function engineering itself was the least plausible of the two leak theories).
Part of the issue here is definitely what we mean when we say something was 'considered possible' - here I'm thinking quite explicitly of mainstream and majoritarian perspectives since that's what impacts most people who aren't able (or allowed) to meaningfully contribute to a debate on its technical merits.
- jonathanstrange 5y agoI don't deny that social media have a huge influence nowadays on public opinion. I totally agree with you about that. As for the initial pushback of the lab theory by virologists, I'm not sure what you're trying to argue for, though. Yes, most virologists rightly considered the lab theories way less likely from the start, and I also remember distinctly that some international scientists who had been to the Wuhan lab (or collaborated with researchers from the lab) defended their Chinese colleagues against unfounded allegations in early 2020. This assessment is confirmed by the recent studies mentioned in the above linked article. Even if you think they got it wrong and these studies are not as conclusive as they claim, I don't think you can fault virologists for voicing their informed opinions about what they overall consider most likely. It is in the nature of scientific work that you consider some hypotheses more likely to be true than others.