3 ms·

Putin clearly stated that an eastward expansion of NATO is considered a security thread to Russia and is unacceptable. This was ignored and NATO decided that Uk

Putin clearly stated that an eastward expansion of NATO is considered a security thread to Russia and is unacceptable. This was ignored and NATO decided that Ukraine will eventually become a NATO member. This is an obvious conflict between Ukraine's rights as a sovereign state and Russia's security interests. For the west this is no big deal, NATO is a defensive alliance and poses no threat to Russia, Russia on the other hand does not buy this. This is, at least to a certain extend, a similar situation as during the Cuban Missile Crisis. How would the USA react today - or maybe better fifteen years ago to ignore the effects of the Ukraine conflict - to an Russian attempt to have missiles in Cuba? Would we believe that it is purely for defensive reasons? This might have been avoidable, while it is impossible that both parties get what they desire, there might have been a compromise. Now with the war this probably becomes much harder, Ukraine has more reasons for a NATO membership, Russia has more reasons not to want Ukraine in the NATO. Now the question is whether Ukraine has a chance to win the war. If they do not, it would probably really be the best option to just surrender. But judging the chances of that seems really hard at the moment because it depends on the amount of support from the west, the effects of the sanctions and the reaction of the Russian population, on China's position, on the kind of war that Russia is willing to fight, ...

nico_h 5y ago
Nobody can win this war. Ukraine’s military is not strong enough. Russia can’t win this war short of ethnic cleansing which would result in even stronger sanctions from the west. It’s a lose lose situation.
- danbruc 5y ago
  Most wars are probably lose lose situations, at least in a certain sense. When I wrote win I meant Ukraine not being controlled by Russia. Even though those scenarios are probably not likely, there are certainly some imaginable scenarios. There could be a diplomatic solution or Putin could give up due to internal opposition or for economic reasons. If there was a no-fly zone, maybe the Ukraine could have a fighting chance. NATO is obviously very reluctant to enforce one, but maybe non-NATO countries could be encouraged to do this. The outlook is certainly bleak but there will be an outcome.
  - foogazi 5y ago
    > but maybe non-NATO countries could be encouraged to do this. No non-NATO country is going to enforce a no fly zone on Russia
    - danbruc 5y ago
      I don't consider this a real possibility either, but in an alternative world where China was more aligned with the west, I could imagine them to do it.

nico_h 5y ago

Nobody can win this war. Ukraine’s military is not strong enough. Russia can’t win this war short of ethnic cleansing which would result in even stronger sanctions from the west. It’s a lose lose situation.

danbruc 5y ago
Most wars are probably lose lose situations, at least in a certain sense. When I wrote win I meant Ukraine not being controlled by Russia. Even though those scenarios are probably not likely, there are certainly some imaginable scenarios. There could be a diplomatic solution or Putin could give up due to internal opposition or for economic reasons. If there was a no-fly zone, maybe the Ukraine could have a fighting chance. NATO is obviously very reluctant to enforce one, but maybe non-NATO countries could be encouraged to do this. The outlook is certainly bleak but there will be an outcome.
- foogazi 5y ago
  > but maybe non-NATO countries could be encouraged to do this. No non-NATO country is going to enforce a no fly zone on Russia
  - danbruc 5y ago
    I don't consider this a real possibility either, but in an alternative world where China was more aligned with the west, I could imagine them to do it.