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Yandex warns of bond repayment and supply risks

140 points by Hagelin 5y ago

osrec 5y ago
I believe the sanctions may well trigger a change in the Russian public's opinion of Putin. Right now, my Russian friends tell me that state propaganda is so strong that a significant proportion of the Russian population believe the Ukranian deaths are due to Ukranians just killing themselves. Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sense. Especially if they also start to see a deterioration in their quality of life...
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sense The crackdown on non-state media, especially if it is not exactly in line with the state propaganda message, makes it harder to do that. > Especially if they also start to see a deterioration in their quality of life... A narrative that explains and places blame elsewhere for that is fairly easy with complete control of information, especially since it being due to economic warfare by the West is true (and how even some Western leaders have described it.)
  - SyzygistSix 5y ago
    The absence of all the former sources of non-state media should be an obvious sign to anyone with any sense at all that state media is lying.
  - blackhaz 5y ago
    Yandex is part of the state media. It should be sanctioned and sunk.
  - can16358p 5y ago
    Yup, I add to your second point from my experience. I live in Turkey and we have a similar state propaganda (though fortunately not war). The government successfully collapsed the economy but they control the mainstream media and their supporters still blame (and truly believe in what they say) the opposition for everything bad that the government does. Controlling people's mindset is apparently easier than it seems when you control media.
    - sobkas 5y ago
      > I live in Turkey and we have a similar state propaganda (though fortunately not war). So what about Syria? Kurds are another topic you might want to look into (both inside and outside the Turkey). Azerbaijan-Armenia proxy war? It's not as easy as you think.
      - can16358p 5y ago
        We don't have war here. Syria and refugees are part of a bigger plan. It's not like the government suddenly became philantrophic and wanted to help people running from war. For decades Kurds and Turks lived happily together. Again, government's agenda is to divide and conquer so they made Kurds "enemy" to some (gullible) part of the population. Surely it's not "easy" though my point stands: when you control mainstream media you can easily manipulate enough people. Current authoratorian government does this in Turkey, and even if there is also many enlightened people, we are just relatively minority.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        Your country is at war with Syria. So yes, you do live in war. It's not so noticeable however, I agree.
        can16358p 5y ago
        I was implying that there is no war where I live, to contrast with the situation in Ukraine. It's not even comparable to what's happening in Ukraine.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        I believe the comparison was between Turkey and Russia, not Turkey and Ukraine.
        can16358p 5y ago
- bigDinosaur 5y ago
  Just like North Koreans see through the propaganda? Unfortunately I just think that's wishful thinking.
- stavros 5y ago
  I think that's optimistic. This is easy to spin as "the west are Nazis and hate that we've tried to liberate Ukraine and this is all their fault".
- PetarStefanovic 5y ago
  If history has taught us anything is that sanctions only reinforce authoritarian figures. The common people are the ones who suffer the most from them, not the elites, and the common people then blame their suffering on outside forces.
  - dash2 5y ago
    Except for apartheid South Africa?
    - qwertyzxcvmnbv 5y ago
      Honestly .. we didn't have international bands touring .. that's about the worst I noticed growing up ..
      - ido 5y ago
        You may not have noticed it growing up, but it had a devastating effect on the economy of South Africa - despite natural resources SA is rich in (such as gold) reaching high prices at the same time.
- DesertBattery 5y ago
  You're wrong. People getting angry at West and talking about war. Including nuclear.
  - JanSt 5y ago
    They gonna send nukes because IKEA stopped sending Billy? I'm not sure Billy will come back that way. Let's face it: Russia is illegaly invading a foreign country that is fighting back hard. The only way I see out for Russia to save itself is by sending Putin into exile and blame it all on him. Putin hoped for weakness in the west re sanctions and weapons. They play hardball and now Putin is failing. edit: I also believe nuclear is the only war Russia could even think about against the west. The army isn't that strong obviously... It is really a bad situation because NOBODY in the west has thought about attacking Russia at all. It is all in their heads. It's just plain stupid.
    - rectang 5y ago
      I wonder how the Russian population would feel about Putin using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if it looks like Russia is losing. Are they that far gone, that inhuman? If they are, what do you do about a country like that, who feels that nuking neighbors after your attempt to conquer them fails is justified? I don't believe the Russian people are that far gone.
      - fauigerzigerk 5y ago
        I don't think dropping nukes on Ukraine is something Russia would even consider. It makes absolutely no sense from their perspective. What I fear is a Cuba crisis style standoff where Russia sets an ultimatum demanding the West stop all arms deliveries to Ukrainian forces, threatening any transit countries (such as Poland) with nukes.
        ChuckNorris89 5y ago
        >threatening any transit countries (such as Poland) with nukes They can threat all they want, but Poland is a NATO member. An attack on Poland will trigger a retaliation from NATO. Not sure Russia wishes to go to war with all of NATO.
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  I don't think you understand Russian mentality. They largely gave up on democracy, freedom and lawful state long time ago. Those that really objected and were smart enough mostly went away and don't look back, since you can't fight that and survive, only join them or live in bitter poverty. There are things that might work - big celebrities like top hockey players and other sportsmen could stand up and criticize Putin directly, not just issue some blank statements of wanting peace and not even mentioning what they actually mean by that (Ovechkin is a prime example). Microsoft could ban any access to license servers, updates, office stuff etc (that might be a massive hit, I recall some UK submarines was running completely on Windows XP few years, I am sure half the state would stop working immediately). Apple and Google could block any access to their stores, updates, apps etc... Ideally with some message explaining why, shown to every user. But that's a bold move, I don't think they have balls for that yet. Things will get much worse in Ukraine at this rate though, so this may change.
  - tryauuum 5y ago
    Yes, nation-wide block of YouTube could work Right now the only change is that google disabled YouTube ads for russian users. Which would make me more eager to sit home and numb my mind with videos
    - JanSt 5y ago
      I believe Russian authorities have blocked Facebook, Twitter, Youtube
      - vasachi 5y ago
        Only Facebook and Twitter for now.
    - codedokode 5y ago
      Blocking Youtube is an awful idea. It is one of the sources where Russians can get information not from propaganda. If you block Youtube, they will have to turn to government-controlled sites like Vk or RuTube.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- CamperBob2 5y ago
  Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sense. I remember thinking that way, too, back in 2016.
  - SyzygistSix 5y ago
    That's not an apt comparison. It could be if Trump (or anyone else) won or "won" the second election, then modified the constitution to allow himself to run again, and was still in office. A lot of people accepted the corruption because life became significantly better. And was noticeably freer in some ways, like the allowance of non-state media and the freedom to leave, compared to the Communist era.
- taf2 5y ago
  In 1930s and following world war 1… did the measure to punish Germany not result in world war 2? Don’t get me wrong, I’m very pro we should do more to help Ukraine … I feel good when I hear oligarchs are losing their super yachts… and I do not see away for the world to do business with Russia now we should be cutting oil purchases too… but really what does this do ? Does it not just further cement a people under the control of a crazy person with more nukes then required to end the world? I feel like maybe we should have sent in air power and troops and been like “bring it”. When things cool down again after Putin - I sure hope the world can come together and finally remove the nukes
  - JanSt 5y ago
    The difference is FOLLOWING the war. You have to defeat the aggressor before you can help rebuild it.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
    Did the measures to stop Germany and Japan after WW2 not bring us 60 years of the most peaceful days in modern history?
    - concinds 5y ago
      > not bring us 60 years of the most peaceful days in modern history? This is a very strange historic rewriting that's popped up everywhere in the last weeks. Did the Cold War not exist? There have been wars, genocides, coups, and regime changes practically continuously, and international media has consistently reported on them. Western media just didn't highlight them because: {they didn't involve major US security interests / involved "non-white" countries that "we wouldn't expect to be peaceful anyway"}. Ukraine is a local conflict, just like Syria was. It involved proxy wars with the same major players. But it "feels" more significant, because now it's on "our" border. It all seems so artificial. This conflict isn't a "turning point" in history, it isn't "war returning after 70 years of peace". It's a local conflict of which there have been dozens in recent decades. World War 3 will happen much later, and won't involve these countries[0]. There is no principled or logical reason for people to care about Ukraine and not Yemen, Ethiopia, and Myanmar, expect for people caring about what the TV tells them to care about. [0] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/george-friedman-on-world-war-iii-776748/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/george-friedman-on-wo...
- rectang 5y ago
  I hope you're right — that's certainly one of the conceptual rationales for sanctions. Unfortunately, it will probably take a lot of catastrophic economic damage before Putin loses support — as in whole companies going down, life savings destroyed, bankruptcies, loss of homes, hunger, desperation. Think of how difficult it is to overcome your own biases — have you ever changed your mind about something your country did? Sanctions are horrible especially on this scale, and even those of us who believe they are appropriate have to stay clear-eyed about what happens.
- allisdust 5y ago
  Are the Chinese seeing past the propaganda? It will be the same with Russians. Putin wanted this. Now his hands are not dirty and who is going to protest the closing of internet, lack of foreign investors, lack of foreign companies when they are done by the west themselves. New companies will come from within Russia, new investment will flow eventually from either China or from within. Mission accomplished and he has cemented his power till he dies.
  - usrusr 5y ago
    Important difference: the average Chinese, both median and arithmetic, receives a considerable prosperity dividend from the stability bought with the oppression. The impression I get from Russia is different.
- cabirum 5y ago
  And Ukrainans believe there's a "ghost plane" in the sky that destroyed half russian air force.
  - ismaildonmez 5y ago
    It’s normal, in a war you need myths. Don’t confuse them with government propaganda.
    - somebodythere 5y ago
      It is propaganda. I am not sure where this notion that "in a war you need myths" comes from.
      - emteycz 5y ago
        It's not propaganda in the same way as in Russia because the state did not make it. The notion comes from being in a war - it's absulutely terrible, disgusting experience, so people start making myths to feel some hope, and perpetuate them.
      - SyzygistSix 5y ago
        From the fact that nations that fight to the end and survive in myth live on to manifest again while those that give up the fight and surrender save lives but rarely become sovereign again. Also in the idea of elite troops who it is hopeless to fight against. Myth is incredibly powerful in war and for the long term survival of a nation or state.
      - PedroBatista 5y ago
        It comes from the desperation of the mind when it’s in a very bad place. It grows bottom up. Unlike long running state propaganda that runs top down. At some point Ukrainian propaganda will start to cost them and they’ll need to hit the brakes. I hope they’ll be in a position where that’s a priority.
      - mensetmanusman 5y ago
        Myth feeds the mental energy required to fight for your life. E.g. Russian soldiers are fighting for the myth that they are protecting some great country.
- nxjso9wjf 5y ago
  - emsy 5y ago
    Or the Trump/Russia collusion story that was peddled for 4 years.
  - SyzygistSix 5y ago
    I feel that just like many former Pro-Russian Ukrainians, this invasion is the final straw that allowed them to see through the bullshit. And the ones left are fewer in number and more hopelessly mired in their beliefs.
- throw_m239339 5y ago
  > I believe the sanctions may well trigger a change in the Russian public's opinion of Putin. Doesn't really matter in a dictatorship. Putin is likely to suspend the "right to vote" next and turn Russia into North Korea, officially.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  After seeing what about half of America was able to believe for over six years I have no confidence that people will realize things don’t make sense
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    You aren't wrong but it's important to note that you can't quite separate the two parts of this analogy. They are on a continuum. Just as with some of the worst lies of Brexit or anti-EU sentiment in mainland Europe, the worst of the lies people believed in the USA were helped by Putin's "outreach" work, both in terms of dark money and via the disinformation teams operated out of the Kremlin like the GRU, and by hacking/activist groups who were possibly unwittingly controlled. In a climate of disinformation, it's Putin's world, in many ways, and we just live in it. Putin's regime is the primary exporter of state-sponsored misinformation and disinformation globally. And as to people struggling with things not making sense: that's literally the point. Both in and outside Russia, Putin's aim is not to have a consistent projected worldview or propaganda; his aim, and his success, is in undermining everyone else's. He was taught to do this by people like Vladislav Surkov, and he is very good at it. He wants you not to trust anything to be true; just trust that his power is true.
  - rajup 5y ago
    Firstly it’s not half of America since not everyone votes. Secondly I doubt every Trump voter believes or believed every single lie he spewed. There are tons of reasons why someone might have voted for him without really agreeing with all of his rubbish. IMHO it would help to stop painting this other section of voters as dumb and easily duped.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - jpgvm 5y ago
      There may be reasons other than believing his horseshit but those are generally even more egregious than simply being stupid.
- PedroBatista 5y ago
  I wouldn’t be so optimistic, the country is run by people with the exact skills needed to keep the population in an alternate reality: psyops and a brutal secret police. Add a cultivated desire to be “great again” plus economic hardship imposed from outside and Putin can hold a tight leach as he’s been doing. That’s the first time he’s probably gambling his life, but he’s far from being defeated.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  >a significant proportion of the Russian population believe the Ukranian deaths are due to Ukranians just killing themselves. This sounds like Western meta-propaganda. Russia isn't some mysterious other-world filled with low IQ people. Are we really to believe that swaths of their population believes the Ukranians are merely offing themselves during an invasion? Is there anything we can read that points to this, even Fox News-type article making the claim? Colour me skpetical.
  - nkozyra 5y ago
    Unless you're suggesting the poster is part of the meta propaganda I'm unclear on this. These are direct firsthand accounts from friends.
    - itsoktocry 5y ago
      Maybe it's just me, but when I read "I've a friend that..." on the internet, it doesn't much sway my opinion. Besides, there's nothing wrong with questioning the claim, is there? I truly am skeptical that "significant" portions of the Russian population believes the Ukrainians are killing themselves. That doesn't mean it's not true.
      - rustybelt 5y ago
        The only thing I’m confident about when it comes to this war is that both sides are lying their asses off.
  - fredophile 5y ago
    I read something similar. I believe it was a BBC article but could be wrong. IIRC it was fairly common in Russians who did not speak a second language and not common in English speaking Russians. I think you misinterpreted what the parent poster meant about Ukrainian s killing themselves. It probably meant Ukrainians killing other Ukrainians in false flag operations and not suicides.
  - hprotagonist 5y ago
- croes 5y ago
  Are you sure? Could simply be put as economic war by the west against russian competitors.
- ineedasername 5y ago
  Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sens In the US as significant part of the population will believe that the political party in power is the source of everything bad, counter to any evidence. Paradoxically, evidence against that point of view is almost taken as proof: "that's what they want you to believe!". Try talking to an ardent Trump opponent or supporter that he did even the least little thing right or wrong. It's maddening the contortions of reasoning and deflection. He's so very polarizing so the phenomena is more extreme with him but the same goes for any president in my lifetime. Now imagine there's only one real political party, more controls on information, and a general human desire to not see themselves or their "tribe" as the villains in any situation... The type of sentiment change you're hoping for can occur, but my own observation is that it only happens very gradually over many years or very suddenly when sparked by something cataclysmic, and that second method has as much chance of hardening the mindset with more rationalizing as it does changing it.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  I’ve been lurking on r/AskARussian lately and people there are pissed at the west for sanctions—they don’t understand why the west can’t just sanction Putin and cronies, and a good chunk of them also seem to think the west is hellbent on invading Russia and Putin’s war is necessary to stop the West from acquiring Ukraine (presumably a platform from which to invade Russia). And note that this sub is much less insane than r/russia whose mods are straight Russian state censors. In other words, even the least-propagandized Russians seem to be heavily influenced.
detaro 5y ago
dupe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30562073 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30562073
alfiedotwtf 5y ago
This is just Yandex, but I'm sure other Russian companies would be in the same boat... Does anyone know when debt events for other Russian bluechips, and possibly even Russian government bonds themselves are?
- riffraff 5y ago
  They already defaulted via regulation https://dcweekly.org/2022/03/04/russia-halts-payments-on-bonds-shares-to-foreigners/ https://dcweekly.org/2022/03/04/russia-halts-payments-on-bon...
fffobar 5y ago
Normally you'd have simply floated another bond (not a puttable one this time). Credit is a funny thing, it becomes unavailable the moment you need it most ...
- PedroBatista 5y ago
  Credit exists when you’re able to pay it.
  - ben-gy 5y ago
    And when you are not blacklist
    - throwoutway 5y ago
      The Yandex filing spends a significant amount of text reiterating they’re not on a blacklist though
  - rchaud 5y ago
    It also exists if you can obscure the risk and shift it to somebody else. See mortgage backed securities in the US in the run up to the 2008 crisis.
rdxm 5y ago
jug 5y ago
Yandex going belly up would certainly send a message to Russia Like Google Search going out in the western world
- lovelyviking 5y ago
  send message and then what? the propaganda there would tell that west is using any chance to put russia down and here is another example. People in the west are too naive to realise that in russia no body asks what people think. The level of propaganda is so strong that people would believe whatever they are told. The idiocy of those in the west who think that russians can decide something once they face sanctions is overwhelming. In the very long therm it may be but thus completely inadequate measure in the moment. Another idiocy is to think that claiming that NATO isn’t the part of the conflict can prevent them to actually become a part of the conflict. The moment russia will decide they will invent the cause to attack just as they did with Ukraine.
  - tragictrash 5y ago
    You are too naive to think the people can't see what's going on. Putin brought this on his people for some idealogic crusade. Not everyone will understand but some will.
    - thr0wawayf00 5y ago
      Sure, some will. But we've seen how well propaganda works here in the US over the last 6 years, I feel less and less and certain that we'll be able to agree on a common reality here at home. The number of people that still argue about how the last election was stolen just blows my mind.
      - boplicity 5y ago
        The vast majority of Republicans approve of Trump. In other words, they approve of perpetual, blatant dishonesty, or at least don't think it is important enough to change their opinion. Very disheartening.
randogeuebdb 5y ago
Not arguing against sanctions in general, but for South Africa, the collapse of the soviet union, which had been propping up the south african economy, played a more important role. https://reason.com/2013/12/06/did-economic-sanctions-help-end-aparthei/ https://reason.com/2013/12/06/did-economic-sanctions-help-en...
- ineedasername 5y ago
  Economic pressure is usually cited as a primary factor leading to the end of apartheid, beginning in 1990, which is before the collapse of the former Soviet Union. I'm not disagreeing that the collapse played a part, but I think it's safe to say there was no single cause. Without ever-increasing sanctions the ball might not have started rolling in 1990. Without Soviet collapse it might not have unraveled quite as fast or in the way that it did.
  - sangnoir 5y ago
    The article is revisionist BS. There was no "misunderstanding" of what Apartheid and its value system were, it is just that back then, institutional racism wasn't a deal breaker for allies involved in overt and covert proxy wars against communism in southern africa. The South African government negotiations with Mandela predate the fall of the Berlin wall and the Soviet collapse. The post facto rationalization to say "Apartheid was the real socialism, and should have been rejected for that reason" rings a little hollow when it's said in retrospect, but it's on-message for reason.com
    - ineedasername 5y ago
      That was kind of my thinking too, the ball was right rolling 2-3 years before the Soviet collapse. Though I know 1994, after the collapse, was a major milestone is finalizing the end of apartheid, so I'm not sure if the Soviet collapse had a large effect... I'm don't know (I didn't think) the Soviets had much influence in SA, but it seems plausible that the upending of world power structures in general broke down the realpolitik dynamics that might have preserved toxic power structures like apartheid, even indirectly. I honestly don't know, except to say that change began before the collapse.
qqq111 5y ago
Mizza 5y ago
What's to stop Putin from nationalizing Yandex? They don't really have a choice but to move back to a centrally planned economy, why not just yoink it?
jmconfuzeus 5y ago
I hope development on Clickhouse doesn't go south.
- futhey 5y ago
  ClickHouse, Inc spun out of Yandex last year and is now a private company HQ in the bay area, although their funding is partially from participation by Yandex. No idea if this moved any portion of their development. Would be curious to see if this has any impact, or if they're going to get lucky and evade Yandex's current problems.

140 points by Hagelin 5y ago

I believe the sanctions may well trigger a change in the Russian public's opinion of Putin. Right now, my Russian friends tell me that state propaganda is so strong that a significant proportion of the Russian population believe the Ukranian deaths are due to Ukranians just killing themselves. Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sense. Especially if they also start to see a deterioration in their quality of life...

dragonwriter 5y ago
> Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sense The crackdown on non-state media, especially if it is not exactly in line with the state propaganda message, makes it harder to do that. > Especially if they also start to see a deterioration in their quality of life... A narrative that explains and places blame elsewhere for that is fairly easy with complete control of information, especially since it being due to economic warfare by the West is true (and how even some Western leaders have described it.)
- SyzygistSix 5y ago
  The absence of all the former sources of non-state media should be an obvious sign to anyone with any sense at all that state media is lying.
- blackhaz 5y ago
  Yandex is part of the state media. It should be sanctioned and sunk.
- can16358p 5y ago
  Yup, I add to your second point from my experience. I live in Turkey and we have a similar state propaganda (though fortunately not war). The government successfully collapsed the economy but they control the mainstream media and their supporters still blame (and truly believe in what they say) the opposition for everything bad that the government does. Controlling people's mindset is apparently easier than it seems when you control media.
  - sobkas 5y ago
    > I live in Turkey and we have a similar state propaganda (though fortunately not war). So what about Syria? Kurds are another topic you might want to look into (both inside and outside the Turkey). Azerbaijan-Armenia proxy war? It's not as easy as you think.
    - can16358p 5y ago
      We don't have war here. Syria and refugees are part of a bigger plan. It's not like the government suddenly became philantrophic and wanted to help people running from war. For decades Kurds and Turks lived happily together. Again, government's agenda is to divide and conquer so they made Kurds "enemy" to some (gullible) part of the population. Surely it's not "easy" though my point stands: when you control mainstream media you can easily manipulate enough people. Current authoratorian government does this in Turkey, and even if there is also many enlightened people, we are just relatively minority.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        Your country is at war with Syria. So yes, you do live in war. It's not so noticeable however, I agree.
        can16358p 5y ago
        I was implying that there is no war where I live, to contrast with the situation in Ukraine. It's not even comparable to what's happening in Ukraine.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        I believe the comparison was between Turkey and Russia, not Turkey and Ukraine.
        can16358p 5y ago
bigDinosaur 5y ago
Just like North Koreans see through the propaganda? Unfortunately I just think that's wishful thinking.
stavros 5y ago
I think that's optimistic. This is easy to spin as "the west are Nazis and hate that we've tried to liberate Ukraine and this is all their fault".
PetarStefanovic 5y ago
If history has taught us anything is that sanctions only reinforce authoritarian figures. The common people are the ones who suffer the most from them, not the elites, and the common people then blame their suffering on outside forces.
- dash2 5y ago
  Except for apartheid South Africa?
  - qwertyzxcvmnbv 5y ago
    Honestly .. we didn't have international bands touring .. that's about the worst I noticed growing up ..
    - ido 5y ago
      You may not have noticed it growing up, but it had a devastating effect on the economy of South Africa - despite natural resources SA is rich in (such as gold) reaching high prices at the same time.
DesertBattery 5y ago
You're wrong. People getting angry at West and talking about war. Including nuclear.
- JanSt 5y ago
  They gonna send nukes because IKEA stopped sending Billy? I'm not sure Billy will come back that way. Let's face it: Russia is illegaly invading a foreign country that is fighting back hard. The only way I see out for Russia to save itself is by sending Putin into exile and blame it all on him. Putin hoped for weakness in the west re sanctions and weapons. They play hardball and now Putin is failing. edit: I also believe nuclear is the only war Russia could even think about against the west. The army isn't that strong obviously... It is really a bad situation because NOBODY in the west has thought about attacking Russia at all. It is all in their heads. It's just plain stupid.
  - rectang 5y ago
    I wonder how the Russian population would feel about Putin using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if it looks like Russia is losing. Are they that far gone, that inhuman? If they are, what do you do about a country like that, who feels that nuking neighbors after your attempt to conquer them fails is justified? I don't believe the Russian people are that far gone.
    - fauigerzigerk 5y ago
      I don't think dropping nukes on Ukraine is something Russia would even consider. It makes absolutely no sense from their perspective. What I fear is a Cuba crisis style standoff where Russia sets an ultimatum demanding the West stop all arms deliveries to Ukrainian forces, threatening any transit countries (such as Poland) with nukes.
      - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
        >threatening any transit countries (such as Poland) with nukes They can threat all they want, but Poland is a NATO member. An attack on Poland will trigger a retaliation from NATO. Not sure Russia wishes to go to war with all of NATO.
saiya-jin 5y ago
I don't think you understand Russian mentality. They largely gave up on democracy, freedom and lawful state long time ago. Those that really objected and were smart enough mostly went away and don't look back, since you can't fight that and survive, only join them or live in bitter poverty. There are things that might work - big celebrities like top hockey players and other sportsmen could stand up and criticize Putin directly, not just issue some blank statements of wanting peace and not even mentioning what they actually mean by that (Ovechkin is a prime example). Microsoft could ban any access to license servers, updates, office stuff etc (that might be a massive hit, I recall some UK submarines was running completely on Windows XP few years, I am sure half the state would stop working immediately). Apple and Google could block any access to their stores, updates, apps etc... Ideally with some message explaining why, shown to every user. But that's a bold move, I don't think they have balls for that yet. Things will get much worse in Ukraine at this rate though, so this may change.
- tryauuum 5y ago
  Yes, nation-wide block of YouTube could work Right now the only change is that google disabled YouTube ads for russian users. Which would make me more eager to sit home and numb my mind with videos
  - JanSt 5y ago
    I believe Russian authorities have blocked Facebook, Twitter, Youtube
    - vasachi 5y ago
      Only Facebook and Twitter for now.
  - codedokode 5y ago
    Blocking Youtube is an awful idea. It is one of the sources where Russians can get information not from propaganda. If you block Youtube, they will have to turn to government-controlled sites like Vk or RuTube.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
CamperBob2 5y ago
Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sense. I remember thinking that way, too, back in 2016.
- SyzygistSix 5y ago
  That's not an apt comparison. It could be if Trump (or anyone else) won or "won" the second election, then modified the constitution to allow himself to run again, and was still in office. A lot of people accepted the corruption because life became significantly better. And was noticeably freer in some ways, like the allowance of non-state media and the freedom to leave, compared to the Communist era.
taf2 5y ago
In 1930s and following world war 1… did the measure to punish Germany not result in world war 2? Don’t get me wrong, I’m very pro we should do more to help Ukraine … I feel good when I hear oligarchs are losing their super yachts… and I do not see away for the world to do business with Russia now we should be cutting oil purchases too… but really what does this do ? Does it not just further cement a people under the control of a crazy person with more nukes then required to end the world? I feel like maybe we should have sent in air power and troops and been like “bring it”. When things cool down again after Putin - I sure hope the world can come together and finally remove the nukes
- JanSt 5y ago
  The difference is FOLLOWING the war. You have to defeat the aggressor before you can help rebuild it.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  Did the measures to stop Germany and Japan after WW2 not bring us 60 years of the most peaceful days in modern history?
  - concinds 5y ago
    > not bring us 60 years of the most peaceful days in modern history? This is a very strange historic rewriting that's popped up everywhere in the last weeks. Did the Cold War not exist? There have been wars, genocides, coups, and regime changes practically continuously, and international media has consistently reported on them. Western media just didn't highlight them because: {they didn't involve major US security interests / involved "non-white" countries that "we wouldn't expect to be peaceful anyway"}. Ukraine is a local conflict, just like Syria was. It involved proxy wars with the same major players. But it "feels" more significant, because now it's on "our" border. It all seems so artificial. This conflict isn't a "turning point" in history, it isn't "war returning after 70 years of peace". It's a local conflict of which there have been dozens in recent decades. World War 3 will happen much later, and won't involve these countries[0]. There is no principled or logical reason for people to care about Ukraine and not Yemen, Ethiopia, and Myanmar, expect for people caring about what the TV tells them to care about. [0] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/george-friedman-on-world-war-iii-776748/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/george-friedman-on-wo...
rectang 5y ago
I hope you're right — that's certainly one of the conceptual rationales for sanctions. Unfortunately, it will probably take a lot of catastrophic economic damage before Putin loses support — as in whole companies going down, life savings destroyed, bankruptcies, loss of homes, hunger, desperation. Think of how difficult it is to overcome your own biases — have you ever changed your mind about something your country did? Sanctions are horrible especially on this scale, and even those of us who believe they are appropriate have to stay clear-eyed about what happens.
allisdust 5y ago
Are the Chinese seeing past the propaganda? It will be the same with Russians. Putin wanted this. Now his hands are not dirty and who is going to protest the closing of internet, lack of foreign investors, lack of foreign companies when they are done by the west themselves. New companies will come from within Russia, new investment will flow eventually from either China or from within. Mission accomplished and he has cemented his power till he dies.
- usrusr 5y ago
  Important difference: the average Chinese, both median and arithmetic, receives a considerable prosperity dividend from the stability bought with the oppression. The impression I get from Russia is different.
cabirum 5y ago
And Ukrainans believe there's a "ghost plane" in the sky that destroyed half russian air force.
- ismaildonmez 5y ago
  It’s normal, in a war you need myths. Don’t confuse them with government propaganda.
  - somebodythere 5y ago
    It is propaganda. I am not sure where this notion that "in a war you need myths" comes from.
    - emteycz 5y ago
      It's not propaganda in the same way as in Russia because the state did not make it. The notion comes from being in a war - it's absulutely terrible, disgusting experience, so people start making myths to feel some hope, and perpetuate them.
    - SyzygistSix 5y ago
      From the fact that nations that fight to the end and survive in myth live on to manifest again while those that give up the fight and surrender save lives but rarely become sovereign again. Also in the idea of elite troops who it is hopeless to fight against. Myth is incredibly powerful in war and for the long term survival of a nation or state.
    - PedroBatista 5y ago
      It comes from the desperation of the mind when it’s in a very bad place. It grows bottom up. Unlike long running state propaganda that runs top down. At some point Ukrainian propaganda will start to cost them and they’ll need to hit the brakes. I hope they’ll be in a position where that’s a priority.
    - mensetmanusman 5y ago
      Myth feeds the mental energy required to fight for your life. E.g. Russian soldiers are fighting for the myth that they are protecting some great country.
nxjso9wjf 5y ago
- emsy 5y ago
  Or the Trump/Russia collusion story that was peddled for 4 years.
- SyzygistSix 5y ago
  I feel that just like many former Pro-Russian Ukrainians, this invasion is the final straw that allowed them to see through the bullshit. And the ones left are fewer in number and more hopelessly mired in their beliefs.
throw_m239339 5y ago
> I believe the sanctions may well trigger a change in the Russian public's opinion of Putin. Doesn't really matter in a dictatorship. Putin is likely to suspend the "right to vote" next and turn Russia into North Korea, officially.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
gameswithgo 5y ago
After seeing what about half of America was able to believe for over six years I have no confidence that people will realize things don’t make sense
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  You aren't wrong but it's important to note that you can't quite separate the two parts of this analogy. They are on a continuum. Just as with some of the worst lies of Brexit or anti-EU sentiment in mainland Europe, the worst of the lies people believed in the USA were helped by Putin's "outreach" work, both in terms of dark money and via the disinformation teams operated out of the Kremlin like the GRU, and by hacking/activist groups who were possibly unwittingly controlled. In a climate of disinformation, it's Putin's world, in many ways, and we just live in it. Putin's regime is the primary exporter of state-sponsored misinformation and disinformation globally. And as to people struggling with things not making sense: that's literally the point. Both in and outside Russia, Putin's aim is not to have a consistent projected worldview or propaganda; his aim, and his success, is in undermining everyone else's. He was taught to do this by people like Vladislav Surkov, and he is very good at it. He wants you not to trust anything to be true; just trust that his power is true.
- rajup 5y ago
  Firstly it’s not half of America since not everyone votes. Secondly I doubt every Trump voter believes or believed every single lie he spewed. There are tons of reasons why someone might have voted for him without really agreeing with all of his rubbish. IMHO it would help to stop painting this other section of voters as dumb and easily duped.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - jpgvm 5y ago
    There may be reasons other than believing his horseshit but those are generally even more egregious than simply being stupid.
PedroBatista 5y ago
I wouldn’t be so optimistic, the country is run by people with the exact skills needed to keep the population in an alternate reality: psyops and a brutal secret police. Add a cultivated desire to be “great again” plus economic hardship imposed from outside and Putin can hold a tight leach as he’s been doing. That’s the first time he’s probably gambling his life, but he’s far from being defeated.
deleted 5y ago
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itsoktocry 5y ago
>a significant proportion of the Russian population believe the Ukranian deaths are due to Ukranians just killing themselves. This sounds like Western meta-propaganda. Russia isn't some mysterious other-world filled with low IQ people. Are we really to believe that swaths of their population believes the Ukranians are merely offing themselves during an invasion? Is there anything we can read that points to this, even Fox News-type article making the claim? Colour me skpetical.
- nkozyra 5y ago
  Unless you're suggesting the poster is part of the meta propaganda I'm unclear on this. These are direct firsthand accounts from friends.
  - itsoktocry 5y ago
    Maybe it's just me, but when I read "I've a friend that..." on the internet, it doesn't much sway my opinion. Besides, there's nothing wrong with questioning the claim, is there? I truly am skeptical that "significant" portions of the Russian population believes the Ukrainians are killing themselves. That doesn't mean it's not true.
    - rustybelt 5y ago
      The only thing I’m confident about when it comes to this war is that both sides are lying their asses off.
- fredophile 5y ago
  I read something similar. I believe it was a BBC article but could be wrong. IIRC it was fairly common in Russians who did not speak a second language and not common in English speaking Russians. I think you misinterpreted what the parent poster meant about Ukrainian s killing themselves. It probably meant Ukrainians killing other Ukrainians in false flag operations and not suicides.
- hprotagonist 5y ago
croes 5y ago
Are you sure? Could simply be put as economic war by the west against russian competitors.
ineedasername 5y ago
Surely at some point they'll see that what they're being told doesn't make sens In the US as significant part of the population will believe that the political party in power is the source of everything bad, counter to any evidence. Paradoxically, evidence against that point of view is almost taken as proof: "that's what they want you to believe!". Try talking to an ardent Trump opponent or supporter that he did even the least little thing right or wrong. It's maddening the contortions of reasoning and deflection. He's so very polarizing so the phenomena is more extreme with him but the same goes for any president in my lifetime. Now imagine there's only one real political party, more controls on information, and a general human desire to not see themselves or their "tribe" as the villains in any situation... The type of sentiment change you're hoping for can occur, but my own observation is that it only happens very gradually over many years or very suddenly when sparked by something cataclysmic, and that second method has as much chance of hardening the mindset with more rationalizing as it does changing it.
throwaway894345 5y ago
I’ve been lurking on r/AskARussian lately and people there are pissed at the west for sanctions—they don’t understand why the west can’t just sanction Putin and cronies, and a good chunk of them also seem to think the west is hellbent on invading Russia and Putin’s war is necessary to stop the West from acquiring Ukraine (presumably a platform from which to invade Russia). And note that this sub is much less insane than r/russia whose mods are straight Russian state censors. In other words, even the least-propagandized Russians seem to be heavily influenced.

detaro 5y ago

dupe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30562073 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30562073

alfiedotwtf 5y ago

This is just Yandex, but I'm sure other Russian companies would be in the same boat... Does anyone know when debt events for other Russian bluechips, and possibly even Russian government bonds themselves are?

riffraff 5y ago
They already defaulted via regulation https://dcweekly.org/2022/03/04/russia-halts-payments-on-bonds-shares-to-foreigners/ https://dcweekly.org/2022/03/04/russia-halts-payments-on-bon...

fffobar 5y ago

Normally you'd have simply floated another bond (not a puttable one this time). Credit is a funny thing, it becomes unavailable the moment you need it most ...

PedroBatista 5y ago
Credit exists when you’re able to pay it.
- ben-gy 5y ago
  And when you are not blacklist
  - throwoutway 5y ago
    The Yandex filing spends a significant amount of text reiterating they’re not on a blacklist though
- rchaud 5y ago
  It also exists if you can obscure the risk and shift it to somebody else. See mortgage backed securities in the US in the run up to the 2008 crisis.

rdxm 5y ago

jug 5y ago

Yandex going belly up would certainly send a message to Russia Like Google Search going out in the western world

lovelyviking 5y ago
send message and then what? the propaganda there would tell that west is using any chance to put russia down and here is another example. People in the west are too naive to realise that in russia no body asks what people think. The level of propaganda is so strong that people would believe whatever they are told. The idiocy of those in the west who think that russians can decide something once they face sanctions is overwhelming. In the very long therm it may be but thus completely inadequate measure in the moment. Another idiocy is to think that claiming that NATO isn’t the part of the conflict can prevent them to actually become a part of the conflict. The moment russia will decide they will invent the cause to attack just as they did with Ukraine.
- tragictrash 5y ago
  You are too naive to think the people can't see what's going on. Putin brought this on his people for some idealogic crusade. Not everyone will understand but some will.
  - thr0wawayf00 5y ago
    Sure, some will. But we've seen how well propaganda works here in the US over the last 6 years, I feel less and less and certain that we'll be able to agree on a common reality here at home. The number of people that still argue about how the last election was stolen just blows my mind.
    - boplicity 5y ago
      The vast majority of Republicans approve of Trump. In other words, they approve of perpetual, blatant dishonesty, or at least don't think it is important enough to change their opinion. Very disheartening.

randogeuebdb 5y ago

Not arguing against sanctions in general, but for South Africa, the collapse of the soviet union, which had been propping up the south african economy, played a more important role. https://reason.com/2013/12/06/did-economic-sanctions-help-end-aparthei/ https://reason.com/2013/12/06/did-economic-sanctions-help-en...

ineedasername 5y ago
Economic pressure is usually cited as a primary factor leading to the end of apartheid, beginning in 1990, which is before the collapse of the former Soviet Union. I'm not disagreeing that the collapse played a part, but I think it's safe to say there was no single cause. Without ever-increasing sanctions the ball might not have started rolling in 1990. Without Soviet collapse it might not have unraveled quite as fast or in the way that it did.
- sangnoir 5y ago
  The article is revisionist BS. There was no "misunderstanding" of what Apartheid and its value system were, it is just that back then, institutional racism wasn't a deal breaker for allies involved in overt and covert proxy wars against communism in southern africa. The South African government negotiations with Mandela predate the fall of the Berlin wall and the Soviet collapse. The post facto rationalization to say "Apartheid was the real socialism, and should have been rejected for that reason" rings a little hollow when it's said in retrospect, but it's on-message for reason.com
  - ineedasername 5y ago
    That was kind of my thinking too, the ball was right rolling 2-3 years before the Soviet collapse. Though I know 1994, after the collapse, was a major milestone is finalizing the end of apartheid, so I'm not sure if the Soviet collapse had a large effect... I'm don't know (I didn't think) the Soviets had much influence in SA, but it seems plausible that the upending of world power structures in general broke down the realpolitik dynamics that might have preserved toxic power structures like apartheid, even indirectly. I honestly don't know, except to say that change began before the collapse.

qqq111 5y ago

Mizza 5y ago

What's to stop Putin from nationalizing Yandex? They don't really have a choice but to move back to a centrally planned economy, why not just yoink it?

jmconfuzeus 5y ago

I hope development on Clickhouse doesn't go south.

futhey 5y ago
ClickHouse, Inc spun out of Yandex last year and is now a private company HQ in the bay area, although their funding is partially from participation by Yandex. No idea if this moved any portion of their development. Would be curious to see if this has any impact, or if they're going to get lucky and evade Yandex's current problems.