5 ms·

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Thus, in one year or two nobody will even remember them. The ind

by xvilka 5y ago

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Thus, in one year or two nobody will even remember them. The industries that require technology, like electronics, biotechnology, healthcare - those will be permanently crippled, maybe completely eliminated.

erichocean 5y ago
Perhaps Russia can get electronics, biotechnology, and healthcare supplies where the US gets their's: China. Are Russia and China on good terms these days? Does Russia have anything to trade with China for yuan so they can buy those Chinese goods? I guess we'll find out. Or maybe the US tries to sanction China for freely trading with those evil Russians? Interesting times ahead…
- nine_k 5y ago
  China produces a lot of interesting stuff! India, by the way, too. They are big trade partner of Moscow. China gladly buys a lot of Russian oil and natural gas, for instance. But China still can't produce certain high-end things. Say, a high-end server-class CPU is sort of problematic, event though ARM architecture allows to produce capable server CPUs. A powerful enough GPU is even harder to come by. I did not hear about high-capacity Chinese HDDs either. I suppose a lot of industries have such high-end goods that only 2-3 "Western" companies figured out how to produce. The embargo will hit hard in areas where such goods make a difference. I only hope that the embargo will be lifted soon, because the current regime in Russia seems unsustainable.
  - erichocean 5y ago
    True, but China buys all of those "high-end things" in enormous quantities already. Can't they just resell them to Russia, if Russians (or anyone else) want to buy them? Without sanctioning China, I really don't see how the US and her allies can prevent most "normal" goods from making their way (eventually) to Russia. Hell, even IKEA is in China.
    - erosenbe0 5y ago
      Yes, consumers will get resold stuff from other markets but b2b it is sheer pain as now you probably need credit and in a foreign currency, and you may be rolling the quality and service dice on unauthorized resellers.
  - xony 5y ago
jacquesm 5y ago
You'd be surprised. Having 'Western' furniture, clothing and vehicles in the Eastern European countries was a requirement to be seen as successful in life. Of course this is nonsense but a lot of people bought into it and it will take a long time to let go of that. But: whatever Ikea sold they sold and it will likely continue to work for a long time. Vehicles are going to be breaking down without a steady source of spares you'll see cannibalization of the worst of the rolling ones before the year is out.
- erikstarck 5y ago
  Not to mention Windows updates.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Never even thought of that, but good point. Russian business would be crippled overnight, and probably plenty of lower government too.
onion2k 5y ago
Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Firstly, IKEA sells a lot more than furniture. You might be able to make a table at home, but that's one of the simplest things IKEA sells. Making a bowl, or a drinking glass, or a clock is significantly harder. Most people don't have the skills or the equipment. Secondly, IKEA don't simply sell furniture. They sell furniture at scale. Making a table is pretty trivial, but making 25,000 tables is a lot harder. That requires a robust supply chain, logging companies, wood mills, furniture factories, machines to do the work, even if you're going back to the way it was done 50 years ago rather than the massively computerized way IKEA does it. It isn't really possible in a modern global economy if your local currency has collapsed. And then you have the problem that people are used to IKEA stuff being the minimum acceptable level of quality. People buy it because it's cheap, it looks OK, and it lasts a few years. So now not only do you need to make 25,000 tables, but they need to be at least as good as what people could buy before. Otherwise they definitely will remember, and they won't be very happy about it.
- namdnay 5y ago
  IKEA is way higher than the minimum level of quality. Their range goes from medium-low to medium. You can find far worse furniture than ikea (often more expensive)
  - L3viathan 5y ago
    I think you misread: > And then you have the problem that people are used to IKEA stuff being the minimum acceptable level of quality. People see the IKEA level -- whatever that is -- as the minimum acceptable level. Anything worse than IKEA is not worth considering.
    - namdnay 5y ago
      Do they though? There are lots of lower quality stores out there thriving I’d say IKEA serves as the benchmark of value for money.

by xvilka 5y ago

erichocean 5y ago

Perhaps Russia can get electronics, biotechnology, and healthcare supplies where the US gets their's: China. Are Russia and China on good terms these days? Does Russia have anything to trade with China for yuan so they can buy those Chinese goods? I guess we'll find out. Or maybe the US tries to sanction China for freely trading with those evil Russians? Interesting times ahead…

nine_k 5y ago
China produces a lot of interesting stuff! India, by the way, too. They are big trade partner of Moscow. China gladly buys a lot of Russian oil and natural gas, for instance. But China still can't produce certain high-end things. Say, a high-end server-class CPU is sort of problematic, event though ARM architecture allows to produce capable server CPUs. A powerful enough GPU is even harder to come by. I did not hear about high-capacity Chinese HDDs either. I suppose a lot of industries have such high-end goods that only 2-3 "Western" companies figured out how to produce. The embargo will hit hard in areas where such goods make a difference. I only hope that the embargo will be lifted soon, because the current regime in Russia seems unsustainable.
- erichocean 5y ago
  True, but China buys all of those "high-end things" in enormous quantities already. Can't they just resell them to Russia, if Russians (or anyone else) want to buy them? Without sanctioning China, I really don't see how the US and her allies can prevent most "normal" goods from making their way (eventually) to Russia. Hell, even IKEA is in China.
  - erosenbe0 5y ago
    Yes, consumers will get resold stuff from other markets but b2b it is sheer pain as now you probably need credit and in a foreign currency, and you may be rolling the quality and service dice on unauthorized resellers.
- xony 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago

You'd be surprised. Having 'Western' furniture, clothing and vehicles in the Eastern European countries was a requirement to be seen as successful in life. Of course this is nonsense but a lot of people bought into it and it will take a long time to let go of that. But: whatever Ikea sold they sold and it will likely continue to work for a long time. Vehicles are going to be breaking down without a steady source of spares you'll see cannibalization of the worst of the rolling ones before the year is out.

erikstarck 5y ago
Not to mention Windows updates.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Never even thought of that, but good point. Russian business would be crippled overnight, and probably plenty of lower government too.

onion2k 5y ago

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Firstly, IKEA sells a lot more than furniture. You might be able to make a table at home, but that's one of the simplest things IKEA sells. Making a bowl, or a drinking glass, or a clock is significantly harder. Most people don't have the skills or the equipment. Secondly, IKEA don't simply sell furniture. They sell furniture at scale. Making a table is pretty trivial, but making 25,000 tables is a lot harder. That requires a robust supply chain, logging companies, wood mills, furniture factories, machines to do the work, even if you're going back to the way it was done 50 years ago rather than the massively computerized way IKEA does it. It isn't really possible in a modern global economy if your local currency has collapsed. And then you have the problem that people are used to IKEA stuff being the minimum acceptable level of quality. People buy it because it's cheap, it looks OK, and it lasts a few years. So now not only do you need to make 25,000 tables, but they need to be at least as good as what people could buy before. Otherwise they definitely will remember, and they won't be very happy about it.

namdnay 5y ago
IKEA is way higher than the minimum level of quality. Their range goes from medium-low to medium. You can find far worse furniture than ikea (often more expensive)
- L3viathan 5y ago
  I think you misread: > And then you have the problem that people are used to IKEA stuff being the minimum acceptable level of quality. People see the IKEA level -- whatever that is -- as the minimum acceptable level. Anything worse than IKEA is not worth considering.
  - namdnay 5y ago
    Do they though? There are lots of lower quality stores out there thriving I’d say IKEA serves as the benchmark of value for money.