6 ms·

What I'm curious about all the sanctions is what if Russia changes? Say Putin quits or is killed and the replacement withdraws from Ukraine. Are we back on agai

• jacquesm 5y ago
  For me the line to cross would be that Russia gives up their nuclear arms. They have shown that they are willing to use these for extortion rather than as a last means of defense, which I think should be enough to cause them to have to give these up.
  • bagels 5y ago
    Why would they ever give them up? Unless they get so thoroughly routed in a war that they have no choice, it just won't happen because it is the end of sovereignty.
    • jacquesm 5y ago
      There are plenty of sovereign countries that do not have nuclear weapons. It would be the end of the imperialist ambitions.
    • ZeroGravitas 5y ago
      I feel like Russia breaking up into smaller states and then each state joining the eu on a long timescale once they meet various civic legal and economic targets is the kind of boring solution that will be fought for years and then happen once all other options have been exhausted. This war is really about Ukraine (even the Russian speaking parts, the anti-Nato, Anti-EU people in Ukraine) thinking they'd rather be part of the EU once they get their civic society sorted than immediately be a corrupt part of Russia.
      • raverbashing 5y ago
        I'd favour putting the eastern Russia parts under the umbrella of China if they weren't happy to go buddy buddy with Putin. So I dunno, give it to Japan. Or Korea. Gift Koningsberg to Ukraine.
      • jacquesm 5y ago
        You may well be on to something here: that Russia is doing this as a warning to other states still under its control that if they flirt with the EU they will get turned into rubble. That would at least make some sense.
        • ZeroGravitas 5y ago
          I thought this was the generally accepted rationale? What other explanations are there?
          • jacquesm 5y ago
            That Putin was given faulty intelligence that Ukraine would roll over and welcome the invasion because of their urge to return to the Russian fold.
            • ZeroGravitas 5y ago
              I don't think I've seen that take and you may be mixing up what he says with what he thinks, always confusing when talking about blatant liars. I've seen people saying that he thought he could force them to install a pro-russian regime (or further split the country) with shock and awe and merely the threat of great violence and underestimated the will and ability to resist, and overestimated his ability to project power, but not that he's totally disconnected from the reality of public opinion in Ukraine. The whole point, whether the invasion worked really well or not, is that he needs to overule their democratic opinion by force. He seems to grasp that or nothing he's doing makes any sense.
              • jacquesm 5y ago
                What Putin thinks only Putin knows, everybody else is reading the tea leaves.
                • ZeroGravitas 5y ago
                  Yes, but when people like Meirschiemer predicted this a decade ago, and blame the US and Ukraine for it because this is the obvious response to Ukraine trying to leave the Russian sphere of influence and other people who blame Putin also predicted it a decade ago for basically the same reasons, and also correctly predicted it last month when the "don't blame Putin" side was wrong, it seems theres a general consensus on what's happening even if who to 'blame' is apparently up for debate.
  • nikitaga 5y ago
    Russia will never give up nuclear arms. Just look how that worked out for Ukraine (...) Also, Russia is too damn big and unpopulated, it would be almost impossible to defend it all without nuclear deterrence. Much like Canada, in that regard.
• cm2187 5y ago
  The sanctions will likely ease. Back to normal? The reason Europe reacted is not so much in defense of the Ukrainian democracy (though there is also that), but because Russia became a direct threat to European states (Baltic states, Poland, Czech Republic, etc), and therefore had to be stopped in Ukraine. It may take a while before Russia is not deemed a threat anymore.
  • okl 5y ago
    It might take many years until companies return. Nobody wants to risk getting bitten twice.
• kmonsen 5y ago
  Yes, well depending on the new regime. But that seems extremely unlikely? Let's say Putin announces victory and that he is stepping back. Would anyone trust he is not pulling the strings anymore?
  • _ph_ 5y ago
    Interesting thought on how Putin might get out of this. But it should be quite visible, whether this is just an act (like exchanging office with Medvedjev some years back) or a real government change.
• perlgeek 5y ago
  I'm sure Ukraine would demand reparations, as well as getting Crimea back. If Russia complied, and agreed to some international oversight (for example regarding their nuclear arsenal), I'm sure the rest of the world would happily take up trade again. Living in Germany, I see many people are quite upset about the high gas prices, and forgiving a repentant country AND profiting from trade would look very good for the government.