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He predicted this crisis in 2014, and I think he has been quite consistent on saying Putin will act, just that Putin will not occupy Ukraine. Now there is the p
by chj 5y ago
He predicted this crisis in 2014, and I think he has been quite consistent on saying Putin will act, just that Putin will not occupy Ukraine. Now there is the possibility of Russia taking the eastern part, but his main thesis is still valid: the west should leave Ukraine as a buffer state.
https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t...
- markdown 5y ago"If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try to do that." John Mearsheimer, 2015. https://twitter.com/SKalyvas/status/1498073083197931529 https://twitter.com/SKalyvas/status/1498073083197931529
- chj 5y agoToday you and me can debate what "conquer" means, but if policy makers follow his advice, this war won't happen at all. I think that's what really matters.
- markdown 5y agoNonsense! Putin had always planned to rebuild the USSR. Ukraine, Moldova,... he was going to get them back piece by piece. Putin's argument that Nato was a threat is just a distraction. There's nothing Nato could do if Ukraine joined Nato that Nato couldn't already do without Ukraine. Mearsheimer's argument that Russia should be left alone to violate the sovereignty of her neighbours is just bonkers. Thank goodness he was ignored.
- tablespoon 5y ago> He predicted this crisis in 2014... The article you linked was written after Russia had already invaded and annexed part of Ukraine, so it's not a very impressive prediction.