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My generally uninformed take on it is that I'm as surprised as anybody. I always thought it was a rule of modern warfare that if you're capable of establishing

My generally uninformed take on it is that I'm as surprised as anybody. I always thought it was a rule of modern warfare that if you're capable of establishing air superiority, you establish air superiority.

haimez 5y ago
Now modern nations will have an example case to understand what happens if you don’t. I’m going to guess based on what we’re able to see at this point, that no country is going to change their military doctrine based on these new data points, because they aren’t going to be willing to pay the price that seems to have be paid as a result. I could be wrong. It’s not totally clear at this point that Russia is going to be able to pay the price either, so I guess we’ll all find out together.
- epolanski 5y ago
  > what happens if you don’t It's not that simple when you're also missing infantry.
  - haimez 5y ago
    If you aren’t establishing air superiority and are “missing infantry” (I’m not sure what you mean by this) then… are you describing an air skirmish? Peacetime operations?
    - philistine 5y ago
      The missing infantry part refers to the fact that it seems way too much of the Russian army is tanks, and not enough of it infantry, to protect the tanks from being destroyed.
etempleton 5y ago
The current battlefield is entirely based on air superiority. You control the skies, you control the battle. If air supremacy is established tanks and static artillery become useless. They are sitting ducks. I am pretty perplexed with what is happening with the Russian armed forces. They seem to be suffering from poor planning, indecision, and poorly maintained equipment.
- rdtsc 5y ago
  Poor maintenance and low morale is what it looks like to me. The grunts who are turning themselves in say they thought it was “training” until the last minute. Not sure how much I believe that… It as if Putin drafted rough plans to attack, but never finalized them. Then, after all that public grandstanding he couldn’t back down without looking like a coward. So he said “fuck it”, and gambled hoping it would be Crimea 2.0. We didn’t stand up enough to him then, so the bully got emboldened.
  - decebalus1 5y ago
    > The grunts who are turning themselves in say they thought it was “training” until the last minute. Take that with a grain of salt. If you research the history of Russian conflicts, stating that they were told it was just training is a common trope of captured Russians (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30549427 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30549427). It's basically a survival technique. Don't underestimate the indoctrination apparatus of the Russian army. They were sent there to kill, and they know it. Imagine being in 'training' and seeing medical tents + doctors + blood supplies. Give me a break. That doesn't rule out poor planning and/or poor logistics..

haimez 5y ago

Now modern nations will have an example case to understand what happens if you don’t. I’m going to guess based on what we’re able to see at this point, that no country is going to change their military doctrine based on these new data points, because they aren’t going to be willing to pay the price that seems to have be paid as a result. I could be wrong. It’s not totally clear at this point that Russia is going to be able to pay the price either, so I guess we’ll all find out together.

epolanski 5y ago
> what happens if you don’t It's not that simple when you're also missing infantry.
- haimez 5y ago
  If you aren’t establishing air superiority and are “missing infantry” (I’m not sure what you mean by this) then… are you describing an air skirmish? Peacetime operations?
  - philistine 5y ago
    The missing infantry part refers to the fact that it seems way too much of the Russian army is tanks, and not enough of it infantry, to protect the tanks from being destroyed.

etempleton 5y ago

The current battlefield is entirely based on air superiority. You control the skies, you control the battle. If air supremacy is established tanks and static artillery become useless. They are sitting ducks. I am pretty perplexed with what is happening with the Russian armed forces. They seem to be suffering from poor planning, indecision, and poorly maintained equipment.

rdtsc 5y ago
Poor maintenance and low morale is what it looks like to me. The grunts who are turning themselves in say they thought it was “training” until the last minute. Not sure how much I believe that… It as if Putin drafted rough plans to attack, but never finalized them. Then, after all that public grandstanding he couldn’t back down without looking like a coward. So he said “fuck it”, and gambled hoping it would be Crimea 2.0. We didn’t stand up enough to him then, so the bully got emboldened.
- decebalus1 5y ago
  > The grunts who are turning themselves in say they thought it was “training” until the last minute. Take that with a grain of salt. If you research the history of Russian conflicts, stating that they were told it was just training is a common trope of captured Russians (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30549427 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30549427). It's basically a survival technique. Don't underestimate the indoctrination apparatus of the Russian army. They were sent there to kill, and they know it. Imagine being in 'training' and seeing medical tents + doctors + blood supplies. Give me a break. That doesn't rule out poor planning and/or poor logistics..