This was supposed to be a layup for Russia (90% success) and it's looking like a coin flip (50%). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russ

This was supposed to be a layup for Russia (90% success) and it's looking like a coin flip (50%). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-rus...