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Highly unlikely. 1) Objectives were a rapid decapitation strike, air supremacy, and major incursions on several fronts, grabbing several cities. 2) His own fo

Highly unlikely. 1) Objectives were a rapid decapitation strike, air supremacy, and major incursions on several fronts, grabbing several cities. 2) His own forces are getting drawn out and mauled. Ukranians are just not losing units at the same rate. 3) Either way, momentum matters and Russians don't have it. That said, they do have a lot of fodder to throw at Ukraine. It seems likely that Ukraine can defend themselves if they are very effectively supported by the West on many fronts, but otherwise the Bear will just slowly suffocate them even as it looses a lot of blood itself. Every anyone with military experience sees that column they have to be salivating. Has there ever been a time in history when there has been several divisions of units just sitting there, out in the open, waiting to be attacked. My gosh.

blip54321 5y ago
Why do you believe Ukraine isn't losing units at the same rate? Pentagon estimates Russia lost 3-5% and Ukraine 10% of their capacity.
- aliswe 5y ago
  Those percentages might translate to a higher absolute number rate for the russians though, and we dont know how fast those rates are progressing either.
- jollybean 5y ago
  The reports make it seem like that. There is a public source that lists all publicly available sourced vehicles destroyed (i.e. images via Twitter) and it's very lopsided, that said, we are aware the Russian may not be posting vids of of their wins. Specifically, the Russians need and want propaganda badly, and what they are showing in their own propaganda is minimal. It's the 'fog of war' surely, and it's possible Ukranian losses are worse than we think ... but not matter what the reality is, Ukranian 'wins' are unprecedented. We know for sure what the 'minimum' looks like and even that is bad for Russia.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    If you can recognize your own bias, you can try to work to counter it. Or, not.

blip54321 5y ago

Why do you believe Ukraine isn't losing units at the same rate? Pentagon estimates Russia lost 3-5% and Ukraine 10% of their capacity.

aliswe 5y ago
Those percentages might translate to a higher absolute number rate for the russians though, and we dont know how fast those rates are progressing either.
jollybean 5y ago
The reports make it seem like that. There is a public source that lists all publicly available sourced vehicles destroyed (i.e. images via Twitter) and it's very lopsided, that said, we are aware the Russian may not be posting vids of of their wins. Specifically, the Russians need and want propaganda badly, and what they are showing in their own propaganda is minimal. It's the 'fog of war' surely, and it's possible Ukranian losses are worse than we think ... but not matter what the reality is, Ukranian 'wins' are unprecedented. We know for sure what the 'minimum' looks like and even that is bad for Russia.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  If you can recognize your own bias, you can try to work to counter it. Or, not.