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> makes me wonder "why now?" Today's episode of the Scientific American's podcast "COVID Quickly" (https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-push-

> makes me wonder "why now?" Today's episode of the Scientific American's podcast "COVID Quickly" (https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-push-to-move-past-the-pandemic-covid-quickly-episode-25/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/the-push-...) had an interview with Flu pandemic historian John Barry. (The interview is the second half of the episode.) They asked him how he'd define when a pandemic is over, and he said there's a science aspect to it, but it's largely when "people stop paying attention to it". They also said the 1918 flu pandemic had 4 waves, and most of the US put restrictions in for wave 2. For wave 3, some areas did and some didn't. By wave 4, which was approximately as severe, NO cities put restrictions in place. Some histories of the flu pandemic don't even mention the 4th wave. We seem to be following a very similar pattern now. Maybe 2 years (and/or 4 waves) is roughly society's attention span for a pandemic.

graeme 5y ago
That’s contingent on the number of waves being four and the number of years being two though. I have no expectation covid is done. At a certain point you have to pay attention if it’s bad enough.
graeme 5y ago
That’s contingent on the number of waves being four and the number of years being two though. I have no expectation covid is done. At a certain point you have to pay attention if it’s bad enough. (It isn’t now)
- tialaramex 5y ago
  That influenza virus didn't go anywhere, it's still with us, but people stopped caring after the worst of the pandemic. COVID-19 will now do the same. That's a bad but predictable outcome of short term thinking.
  - dntrkv 5y ago
    Hasn't influenza been around for like 1000+ years?
    - tialaramex 5y ago
      Influenza has existed in human populations for a long time, yes. However the 1918 pandemic was a novel H1N1 influenza A probably from birds. It was never eliminated in humans and continues to kill people to this day. We "learned to live with it" because up front capital costs are distasteful to idiots who can't see past the next quarter.
  - graeme 5y ago
    Spanish flu’s mega waves stopped though. My point is if covid keeps swamping us then we won’t be able to ignore it. Easy to say “I’m done with covid” at the bottom of a wave, which is where most of the world is now. (Referring to the popular attitude, not you)

graeme 5y ago

That’s contingent on the number of waves being four and the number of years being two though. I have no expectation covid is done. At a certain point you have to pay attention if it’s bad enough.

graeme 5y ago

That’s contingent on the number of waves being four and the number of years being two though. I have no expectation covid is done. At a certain point you have to pay attention if it’s bad enough. (It isn’t now)

tialaramex 5y ago
That influenza virus didn't go anywhere, it's still with us, but people stopped caring after the worst of the pandemic. COVID-19 will now do the same. That's a bad but predictable outcome of short term thinking.
- dntrkv 5y ago
  Hasn't influenza been around for like 1000+ years?
  - tialaramex 5y ago
    Influenza has existed in human populations for a long time, yes. However the 1918 pandemic was a novel H1N1 influenza A probably from birds. It was never eliminated in humans and continues to kill people to this day. We "learned to live with it" because up front capital costs are distasteful to idiots who can't see past the next quarter.
- graeme 5y ago
  Spanish flu’s mega waves stopped though. My point is if covid keeps swamping us then we won’t be able to ignore it. Easy to say “I’m done with covid” at the bottom of a wave, which is where most of the world is now. (Referring to the popular attitude, not you)