4 ms·

Instinctively it makes sense that Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorsteps, but at the same time, why not? He already has NATO in the Baltics, and it's not like

Instinctively it makes sense that Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorsteps, but at the same time, why not? He already has NATO in the Baltics, and it's not like NATO would try to invade Russia just because they are neighbours. They are showing now very clearly that they are not interested in a conflict with Russia. Sure I understand it's not black and white, but NATO is already the stronger party, by far, so what does it REALLY matter if they put up some more bases nearby?

inglor_cz 5y ago
I don't believe this is about NATO. What Putin does not want is Ukraine as a democratic state where a president loses an election and steps down peacefully. Ukraine is "small Russia" and Russians could start asking questions.
- Grustaf 5y ago
  That's exactly what McFaul suggested, and it's frankly absurd. Putin is quite popular, even my modern, non-Putinist friends in Moscow think he would win a fair election. Besides, he never lost an election, it's not that he lost and stayed on, that's not the issue. And every one already knows that there are democratic countries, it's not like Russians would suddenly stage a coup because Ukraine has a fair election. Which they won't have any time soon, by the way. Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia.
  - rudnevr 5y ago
    You wrong on all accounts. Putin has never had fair elections in the first place. He was appointed first and ran as an incumbent already. He never held a single public debate with any of his opponents. He never faced a single opposition TV channel. Shutting down TV was his first term agenda. He never faced a single popular opposition leader competition, because they've been always excluded from elections in the first place. And no, Ukraine rates better than Russia in corruption. Not saying Ukraine is a true democracy, which means the power was passed to opposition multiple times.
    - Grustaf 5y ago
      I’m saying he probably WOULD win a hypothetical fair election. Or rather, that even my non-Putinist friends think so. Do you have any evidence that this is not the case? Even this brutal war on a brother nation has popular support according to surveys https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-publi.... Presumably Putin is not less popular than this.
microtherion 5y ago
Since it is now Putin's stated goal to annex Ukraine, he's going to end up with more NATO states on his doorstep if he wins this war. So is he going to demand that Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia renounce their membership next?
- Grustaf 5y ago
  Last I read he explicitly said that this was not his goal. When did he say that?
  - microtherion 5y ago
    This Thursday, apparently: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/ukraine-russia-evening-briefing-putin-tells-macron-he-wants-to-seize-whole-of-ukraine/ar-AAUzf3h https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/ukraine-russia-evening-... And if you don't trust secondhand reports of a phone call between him & Macron, there is also a public statement today to similar effect, though couched in "look what you might make me do" rhetoric: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-ukraine-might-lose-160156168.html https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-ukraine-might-lose-160156...
    - Grustaf 5y ago
      I mean sure he's planning to "seize all of Ukraine", but I don't think he wanted to make Ukraine a federal subject, at least originally. My theory was always that he wanted to capture Ukraine to force a very favourable (for him) peace agreement, install a loyal regime, keep Crimea, give independence to the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, with borders corresponding to the oblasts, and then leave. Possibly make the republics federal subjects of Russia. The statehood threat actually strengthens my belief, it sounds like he will only annihilate Ukraine unless they give up soon. If he was planning to do that anyway, the threat makes less sense. But of course I'm just guessing.

inglor_cz 5y ago

I don't believe this is about NATO. What Putin does not want is Ukraine as a democratic state where a president loses an election and steps down peacefully. Ukraine is "small Russia" and Russians could start asking questions.

Grustaf 5y ago
That's exactly what McFaul suggested, and it's frankly absurd. Putin is quite popular, even my modern, non-Putinist friends in Moscow think he would win a fair election. Besides, he never lost an election, it's not that he lost and stayed on, that's not the issue. And every one already knows that there are democratic countries, it's not like Russians would suddenly stage a coup because Ukraine has a fair election. Which they won't have any time soon, by the way. Ukraine is more corrupt than Russia.
- rudnevr 5y ago
  You wrong on all accounts. Putin has never had fair elections in the first place. He was appointed first and ran as an incumbent already. He never held a single public debate with any of his opponents. He never faced a single opposition TV channel. Shutting down TV was his first term agenda. He never faced a single popular opposition leader competition, because they've been always excluded from elections in the first place. And no, Ukraine rates better than Russia in corruption. Not saying Ukraine is a true democracy, which means the power was passed to opposition multiple times.
  - Grustaf 5y ago
    I’m saying he probably WOULD win a hypothetical fair election. Or rather, that even my non-Putinist friends think so. Do you have any evidence that this is not the case? Even this brutal war on a brother nation has popular support according to surveys https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-publi.... Presumably Putin is not less popular than this.

microtherion 5y ago

Since it is now Putin's stated goal to annex Ukraine, he's going to end up with more NATO states on his doorstep if he wins this war. So is he going to demand that Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia renounce their membership next?

Grustaf 5y ago
Last I read he explicitly said that this was not his goal. When did he say that?
- microtherion 5y ago
  This Thursday, apparently: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/ukraine-russia-evening-briefing-putin-tells-macron-he-wants-to-seize-whole-of-ukraine/ar-AAUzf3h https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/ukraine-russia-evening-... And if you don't trust secondhand reports of a phone call between him & Macron, there is also a public statement today to similar effect, though couched in "look what you might make me do" rhetoric: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-ukraine-might-lose-160156168.html https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-ukraine-might-lose-160156...
  - Grustaf 5y ago
    I mean sure he's planning to "seize all of Ukraine", but I don't think he wanted to make Ukraine a federal subject, at least originally. My theory was always that he wanted to capture Ukraine to force a very favourable (for him) peace agreement, install a loyal regime, keep Crimea, give independence to the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, with borders corresponding to the oblasts, and then leave. Possibly make the republics federal subjects of Russia. The statehood threat actually strengthens my belief, it sounds like he will only annihilate Ukraine unless they give up soon. If he was planning to do that anyway, the threat makes less sense. But of course I'm just guessing.