4 ms·

Or maybe they just don't really want to occupy Kyiv. They want to annex a crapton of Ukranian territory, extract a demilitarization commitment, declare victory

Or maybe they just don't really want to occupy Kyiv. They want to annex a crapton of Ukranian territory, extract a demilitarization commitment, declare victory, and flip the bird at NATO. Occupying Kyiv means urban guerilla warfare and a lot of civilan deaths. They don't want to occupy Kyiv, they want to threaten to occupy Kyiv. Which is exactly what this preposterously-slow convoy accomplishes.

RationPhantoms 5y ago
Sure and in the interim, they can lose $13,000,000 missile systems, $20 million jets and divisions of tanks.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  By all accounts, those are obsolete. Putin might have needed to "use them up" in order to get his people on board for replacing them. Franklin Roosevelt had the Navy's obsolete battleships all parked in Pearl Harbor when war was threatening in the Pacific. The all-important aircraft carriers were far away. Everyone in the US Navy understood how a successful attack would run, because it had been rehearsed twice already by the Navy itself.
  - powerslacker 5y ago
    Interesting, never heard this take before.
  - starwind 5y ago
    “Obsolete” is about all the Russian defense industry can produce. Russia’s defense industry has struggled to produce modern fighters and equipment. Russia touted the new Su-57 fighter and T-14 Armata tank but have hardly delivered any. Most of what their defense industry can build is upgraded versions of Soviet-designed fighters and armor
    - mediumsmart 5y ago
      so true - here is one of their obsolete drones throwing a firecracker: https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499868149776322563?s=20&t=vnDeToh4uVeh8u0F_pV7dw https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499868149776322563?s...
- verdverm 5y ago
  The Russians have always been more tolerant of military losses, both equipment and people.
- mardifoufs 5y ago
  I've yet to see sources on those alleged multiple Russian aircraft losses. There is only 1 that I think has been proven and it happened today.
  - mediumsmart 5y ago
    What about the imperial Tie fighter they lost on the highway? https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499874233085792263?s=20&t=vnDeToh4uVeh8u0F_pV7dw https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499874233085792263?s...
- simonblack 5y ago
  :) I seem to remember a $120 million F35 falling into the South China Sea a couple of weeks back. Easy come, easy go.
  - webmaven 5y ago
    They just recovered it: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/navy-recovers-stealth-35-south-china-sea/story?id=83228258 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/navy-recovers-stealth-35-sou...
  - pixl97 5y ago
    Russia has a tiny economy so yea, losing lots of stuff is very expensive for them.
chki 5y ago
> extract a demilitarization commitment, How could they possibly hope to get this? A peace accord with demilitarization on the Ukrainian site would only be possible if the Ukrainians trusted Russia. But Russia did not feel bound to their former agreements on keeping Ukraine as a sovereign state. How could Ukraine be guaranteed not to be invaded completely after demilitarizating?
- octoberfranklin 5y ago
  I don't claim to understand how (or if) Putin's mind works, but my theory is that he doesn't care if said agreement stands up to international scrutiny. It'll be a piece of paper that he treats as a license to invade again if he smells any weapons nearby. I suspect the plan is to just keep increasing the pressure until this piece of paper materializes. Maybe at some point Zelensky gets killed by "accident" and whoever takes over signs the piece of paper. Or that guy refuses and he turns up dead. It's a war zone, crazy shit will happen.
yongjik 5y ago
I really don't think it makes sense. The time to threaten occupying Kyiv was before the war. Now that they started, every day they can't take Kyiv is another public display of humiliation for the Russian army. Can't believe Putin actually wanted this outcome.
jollybean 5y ago
No, they wanted to quickly decaptiate the government, kill Zelensky and install Yanukovich, who is waiting in Minks to return. Then, Putin will have re-established Ukraine as a vassal, and have a Neo Russian Empire which the Russian population will chauvinistically and enthusiastically accept. 'We have freed the Ukranians' is what they can tell themselves even though clearly the Ukrainians are willing to literally fight to the death indicates otherwise. Correct in that they don't want to 'occupy' anything, that's expensive. They thought Ukraine would capitulate quickly. Evidence for this points to the fact Putin had to call up Chechen units, marshall units from far away, get Bealurus soldiers involved, and the fact he's still losing a few aircraft every day and does not have air superiority, which surely he would like to have established.
- mediumsmart 5y ago
  >though clearly the Ukrainians are willing to literally fight to the death ... I doubt that and Zelensky is not really the problem. Go and inform yourself as to what is going on. https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/04/how-zelensky-made-peace-with-neo-nazis/ https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/04/how-zelensky-made-peac...
  - Schiendelman 5y ago
    Note to mods - this is a propaganda article getting pasted around.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    This is repulsive. There is a 'Hitler supporter' in every random group of 300 people you can assemble on the planet. Those 'Angry Nationalists' would not have existed were it not for Putins constant interventions with Yanukovich and then the 2014 invasion. No Putin intervention -> no Nazis. FYI Zelenky was is joke, a turd, totally 'the wrong person' - his heroism is due to what he is doing, not what he was. Whatever kind of 'quesitonable leader' he was before, he is now 'Churchill'. He's a figure of history now.
    - 331c8c71 5y ago
mythrwy 5y ago
Yep this is my guess as well. They don't want messy urban warefare, that's a public relations disaster. They want a strong negotiating position and to "make their point".

RationPhantoms 5y ago

Sure and in the interim, they can lose $13,000,000 missile systems, $20 million jets and divisions of tanks.

ncmncm 5y ago
By all accounts, those are obsolete. Putin might have needed to "use them up" in order to get his people on board for replacing them. Franklin Roosevelt had the Navy's obsolete battleships all parked in Pearl Harbor when war was threatening in the Pacific. The all-important aircraft carriers were far away. Everyone in the US Navy understood how a successful attack would run, because it had been rehearsed twice already by the Navy itself.
- powerslacker 5y ago
  Interesting, never heard this take before.
- starwind 5y ago
  “Obsolete” is about all the Russian defense industry can produce. Russia’s defense industry has struggled to produce modern fighters and equipment. Russia touted the new Su-57 fighter and T-14 Armata tank but have hardly delivered any. Most of what their defense industry can build is upgraded versions of Soviet-designed fighters and armor
  - mediumsmart 5y ago
    so true - here is one of their obsolete drones throwing a firecracker: https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499868149776322563?s=20&t=vnDeToh4uVeh8u0F_pV7dw https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499868149776322563?s...
verdverm 5y ago
The Russians have always been more tolerant of military losses, both equipment and people.
mardifoufs 5y ago
I've yet to see sources on those alleged multiple Russian aircraft losses. There is only 1 that I think has been proven and it happened today.
- mediumsmart 5y ago
  What about the imperial Tie fighter they lost on the highway? https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499874233085792263?s=20&t=vnDeToh4uVeh8u0F_pV7dw https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1499874233085792263?s...
simonblack 5y ago
:) I seem to remember a $120 million F35 falling into the South China Sea a couple of weeks back. Easy come, easy go.
- webmaven 5y ago
  They just recovered it: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/navy-recovers-stealth-35-south-china-sea/story?id=83228258 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/navy-recovers-stealth-35-sou...
- pixl97 5y ago
  Russia has a tiny economy so yea, losing lots of stuff is very expensive for them.

chki 5y ago

> extract a demilitarization commitment, How could they possibly hope to get this? A peace accord with demilitarization on the Ukrainian site would only be possible if the Ukrainians trusted Russia. But Russia did not feel bound to their former agreements on keeping Ukraine as a sovereign state. How could Ukraine be guaranteed not to be invaded completely after demilitarizating?

octoberfranklin 5y ago
I don't claim to understand how (or if) Putin's mind works, but my theory is that he doesn't care if said agreement stands up to international scrutiny. It'll be a piece of paper that he treats as a license to invade again if he smells any weapons nearby. I suspect the plan is to just keep increasing the pressure until this piece of paper materializes. Maybe at some point Zelensky gets killed by "accident" and whoever takes over signs the piece of paper. Or that guy refuses and he turns up dead. It's a war zone, crazy shit will happen.

yongjik 5y ago

I really don't think it makes sense. The time to threaten occupying Kyiv was before the war. Now that they started, every day they can't take Kyiv is another public display of humiliation for the Russian army. Can't believe Putin actually wanted this outcome.

jollybean 5y ago

No, they wanted to quickly decaptiate the government, kill Zelensky and install Yanukovich, who is waiting in Minks to return. Then, Putin will have re-established Ukraine as a vassal, and have a Neo Russian Empire which the Russian population will chauvinistically and enthusiastically accept. 'We have freed the Ukranians' is what they can tell themselves even though clearly the Ukrainians are willing to literally fight to the death indicates otherwise. Correct in that they don't want to 'occupy' anything, that's expensive. They thought Ukraine would capitulate quickly. Evidence for this points to the fact Putin had to call up Chechen units, marshall units from far away, get Bealurus soldiers involved, and the fact he's still losing a few aircraft every day and does not have air superiority, which surely he would like to have established.

mediumsmart 5y ago
>though clearly the Ukrainians are willing to literally fight to the death ... I doubt that and Zelensky is not really the problem. Go and inform yourself as to what is going on. https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/04/how-zelensky-made-peace-with-neo-nazis/ https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/04/how-zelensky-made-peac...
- Schiendelman 5y ago
  Note to mods - this is a propaganda article getting pasted around.
- jollybean 5y ago
  This is repulsive. There is a 'Hitler supporter' in every random group of 300 people you can assemble on the planet. Those 'Angry Nationalists' would not have existed were it not for Putins constant interventions with Yanukovich and then the 2014 invasion. No Putin intervention -> no Nazis. FYI Zelenky was is joke, a turd, totally 'the wrong person' - his heroism is due to what he is doing, not what he was. Whatever kind of 'quesitonable leader' he was before, he is now 'Churchill'. He's a figure of history now.
  - 331c8c71 5y ago

mythrwy 5y ago

Yep this is my guess as well. They don't want messy urban warefare, that's a public relations disaster. They want a strong negotiating position and to "make their point".